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Anyone still trading Mouteki? 45 replies

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Mouteki Trading

  • #2,061
  • Sep 29, 2006 8:42am Sep 29, 2006 8:42am
Quoting aha
Who wouldn't be elated? I am forward testing this system with my ea since sept. 27, my balance increased from 5500 to 6200, and my equity right now is 7300.... in less than 3 days.

But I am still skeptical in the result, because the backtesting was negative for all pairs except for GBPUSD.
do you mind to post the EA here ?
{Link Removed}]
  • #2,062
  • Sep 29, 2006 8:49am Sep 29, 2006 8:49am
This pair is developing new projection target...anyone spot it?
new support line was formed...
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  • #2,063
  • Sep 29, 2006 8:59am Sep 29, 2006 8:59am
I knew it, I knew it. I should just set my TP @ +40 in future!
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I am JuMPeR.
  • #2,064
  • Edited 9:41am Sep 29, 2006 9:03am | Edited 9:41am
Based on my interpretation, the projection is at 90pips. Still need two more candles to confirm. Should know by 4pm EST(close).

Also there appears to be a possible upside move with a projection of 217 pips if I'm not mistaken.

http://picnac.com/images/3221EURJPY.jpg
  • #2,065
  • Sep 29, 2006 9:07am Sep 29, 2006 9:07am
Quoting branac
That's true, always got to be careful around those nasty news ...
But there are always those who trade based on news only. Hey, there's a website/engine that does everything for you. No strategy - just trade on news. Breakouts... winnings depend on the trailing stop strategy you choose.

But I am not supposed to recommend any product at the forum anyway. Besides, I demo-ed a day or 2 to see how things go and my results were shockingly negative.
I am JuMPeR.
  • #2,066
  • Sep 29, 2006 9:13am Sep 29, 2006 9:13am
Quoting jumper
But there are always those who trade based on news only. Hey, there's a website/engine that does everything for you. No strategy - just trade on news. Breakouts... winnings depend on the trailing stop strategy you choose.

But I am not supposed to recommend any product at the forum anyway. Besides, I demo-ed a day or 2 to see how things go and my results were shockingly negative.
Yeah, I used to trade the news, but didn't like it. Everything is moving fast and wild, I like to set up a trade and than watch it develop over few hours or days. Technical trading is more suitable for my nature.
  • #2,067
  • Sep 29, 2006 9:15am Sep 29, 2006 9:15am
Quoting Nipper
Fishtank,

Here's my take, but some may not agree with it. I think the "correct" Mouteki signal came on the first blue line break on your chart. The other Mouteki lines " the red lines on your chart", were confirmation supply lines of the first blue line. The red lines are valid Mouteki entry points, but the first price projection from my calculation of +136 pips already got hit, and price is still currently moving higher. If you got in at the first Mouteki signal, you could take the 136 pip or trail it for more upside movement. How high will it go? I don't know!

There's another piece of confirming evidence that the Mouteki Blue line on your chart (red line on my chart - I use red for supply blue for demand), was the correct one. In reference to the chart below, I blew up the oversold region from (0 - 25), so that we can observe what's going on with the stokes. The stokes gave an entry signal before Mouteki, so I just simply view the Mouteki as a confirmation signal to stokes. I particularly like this Mouteki method, as it compliments other signals such as the divergence we see on the chart. I find that divergence is extreme useful for determining price reversal, as we see here. The stokes gave an entry signal 12 hours before Mouteki, as noted by the green candle #7, when the stokes crossed above the 25 level. You would have taken a more favorable price entry as well!

Nipper
What is this stokes you are referring to and how can I get it?
  • #2,068
  • Sep 29, 2006 9:21am Sep 29, 2006 9:21am
Quoting Horace Kent
A very savvy trader once told me this:

"The longer it paces, the further it races."

Patience peeps, let the currency tip its hand, until then, there's nothing wrong with trading those oscillations, thats a 200 pip channel!

Just be careful though, the longer a channel runs, the less stable it becomes. I myself will wait for a break on either side, then wait to see its not a headfake.

Because the move that will follow *should* be massive.
Darn right. I love this pair. It's my primary money maker.

Except for this week... *cough*GBPUSD*cough*...
Mr. Trend
  • #2,069
  • Sep 29, 2006 9:28am Sep 29, 2006 9:28am
What's the consensus on leaving trades open over the weekend?

I think Mouteki wrote that he closes them, but he has also written that he has a trade running from the week before....so...what to do?

EUR/CHF is still making some nice pips, better to close or let it run?

Basically, what are the risks of leaving positions open over the weekend?
Why do you NOT do it?

Thanks,
b
  • #2,070
  • Sep 29, 2006 9:32am Sep 29, 2006 9:32am
According to the Mouteki system, once the demand line can no longer be drawn north of a horizontal line,180 degrees, then there is no question of getting a signal to go short. Is this correct?
  • #2,071
  • Sep 29, 2006 9:35am Sep 29, 2006 9:35am
a big "hello" to everyone,
i just wanted to know what the latest version of the mouteki strategy is.
I mean, was it modified or is it still the one, mouteki presents in his "mouteki material" threat?
Did anyone improvements, which are generally accepted?
I hope to hear from you.
Greetings
-mike
I'm getting there ... slowly
  • #2,072
  • Sep 29, 2006 9:39am Sep 29, 2006 9:39am
Quoting miketoll
a big "hello" to everyone,
i just wanted to know what the latest version of the mouteki strategy is.
I mean, was it modified or is it still the one, mouteki presents in his "mouteki material" threat?
Did anyone improvements, which are generally accepted?
I hope to hear from you.
Greetings
-mike
Hi mike, the strategy is still the same as it is presented in the original documentation.
  • #2,073
  • Edited 10:52am Sep 29, 2006 9:40am | Edited 10:52am
Quoting Fishtank
Although I'm only 3 days old at this...I also find it hard to trade the red lines on my chart...from my previous systems and just personal trading style I find after a solid move from any system that I tend to wait for it to "reset" and find another optimal set-up.

However I have noticed that MoutekiTrader has traded set-ups like the red lines, and in the 3 days I have had success from similar trades....but I do have to force myself to take those trades even in my demo account.

Current price action suggests that is was ok to enter this trade as the pair continues to rise and appears to have finally made it's decision!

Thanks for your point of view!
Yes, absolutely current price action does implicate that those were valid Mouteki entry points. I'm now looking for a top on the dollar and the next trade to be a "break" of the blue demand line on the chart below. Interesting observations on the stokes. We had a couple -ve diverging trendlines occur. But, the 4 hour candle that opened at 7:00 AM this morning created an invalid divergence. At the moment of this snapshot, the stokes was showing a level of 89. The price would have to swoop back down within the next 30 minutes to re-validate that divergence. Otherwise, a new diverging line may form later. This uptrend move wasn't as strong as the downtrend move from 1.2522 - 1.2290. This can be easily seen by the blue arrows for the time it took for both moves of 232 pips down, and then back up. This makes sense as to why the stokes didn't get pushed to a higher level. So, it was prone to a false signal at point 11, where it dropped below the 75 level. I'm going to wait for the next break of the mouteki demand line for a short enty. Possibly next week we may get that signal. We have resistance at the 1.2600 - 1.2650 level, so it'll be interesting to see if the dollar can break it. Weekly, is showing dollar strength since about May, with that new support line lining up nicely at that 1.2290 level.

Nipper
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  • #2,074
  • Sep 29, 2006 9:46am Sep 29, 2006 9:46am
thank yo branac.
Another thing iam interested in is, how much percentage are wins and how much losses?
Greets
I'm getting there ... slowly
  • #2,075
  • Sep 29, 2006 9:51am Sep 29, 2006 9:51am
Hi Mike,

I read up on this method two weeks ago, and started trading it 4 days ago on a demo account.

569 pips in 4 days, all based on Mouteki methodology. And to be honest it could have been a lot more.

10 trades, 10 winners, 6 limited out at profit projection, 4 closed out prior to reaching projections, of those, 2 would have hit projections, the remaining 2 would have stopped out at +10 pips.


If it ain't broke...

regards

Quoting miketoll
a big "hello" to everyone,
i just wanted to know what the latest version of the mouteki strategy is.
I mean, was it modified or is it still the one, mouteki presents in his "mouteki material" threat?
Did anyone improvements, which are generally accepted?
I hope to hear from you.
Greetings
-mike
  • #2,076
  • Sep 29, 2006 10:03am Sep 29, 2006 10:03am
so, did someone a backtest for example 15years ago?
Because if it would have been profitable at these times AND now... the holy grail?
I'm getting there ... slowly
  • #2,077
  • Sep 29, 2006 10:04am Sep 29, 2006 10:04am
Quoting Horace Kent
Hi Mike,

I read up on this method two weeks ago, and started trading it 4 days ago on a demo account.

569 pips in 4 days, all based on Mouteki methodology. And to be honest it could have been a lot more.

10 trades, 10 winners, 6 limited out at profit projection, 4 closed out prior to reaching projections, of those, 2 would have hit projections, the remaining 2 would have stopped out at +10 pips.
Horace,
I don't know if you read my post, but I'm only getting about 50% winners on what I see as valid trades. Would you mind posting the pair and date/time of entry (and timezone) for your 10 trades so that maybe I can see what I'm doing wrong ?

Thanks.
  • #2,078
  • Sep 29, 2006 10:06am Sep 29, 2006 10:06am
Quoting b-rock
What's the consensus on leaving trades open over the weekend?

I think Mouteki wrote that he closes them, but he has also written that he has a trade running from the week before....so...what to do?

EUR/CHF is still making some nice pips, better to close or let it run?

Basically, what are the risks of leaving positions open over the weekend?
Why do you NOT do it?

Thanks,
b
Most traders prefer not to have trades open over the weekend because you never know what unexpected things the weekend, and the new week, may bring.

I think Mouteki will leave the trade if it is proceeding fine, or close it if it looks like it has almost reached its projected profit target. By "feel" really.

As for your EUR/CHF position, maybe you can compromise by using a trailing stop - assuming you are already in profit, of course.
I am JuMPeR.
  • #2,079
  • Sep 29, 2006 10:27am Sep 29, 2006 10:27am
My thoughts are duplicitous:

On the one hand, I don't see anything wrong with setting a close stop, or trailing a stop, and letting them run.

On the other hand, why not lock in the profits and start afresh next week? What if the weekend brings terror, or some other unplanned calamities? Why risk a profitable trade?

Any others have thoughts?


Quoting b-rock
What's the consensus on leaving trades open over the weekend?

I think Mouteki wrote that he closes them, but he has also written that he has a trade running from the week before....so...what to do?

EUR/CHF is still making some nice pips, better to close or let it run?

Basically, what are the risks of leaving positions open over the weekend?
Why do you NOT do it?

Thanks,
b
  • #2,080
  • Sep 29, 2006 10:29am Sep 29, 2006 10:29am
What can I say? I am seized with horror!

What a bad way to end a Friday!!
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I am JuMPeR.
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