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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #74,361
  • Mar 9, 2018 11:55am Mar 9, 2018 11:55am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} A market that won't go up on bullish news isn't a bull market.
not necessarily true. it could be priced in already.
  • #74,362
  • Edited 12:14pm Mar 9, 2018 11:56am | Edited 12:14pm
Quoting MoneyFocus
{quote} not necessarily true. it could be priced in already.
Yes, usually years beforehand towards the end of the last bear market.

The last bubble was extremely large for bad reasons and I believe a lot of people learned a lot of lessons from it. The fallout is still very fresh in their memory. I don't expect this one to be nearly as large. Though the next one will certainly be bigger. This is still the spring cycle. As the 08 crisis fades into the past and the old who lost their entire savings towards the end of their lives become a distant memory the bubbles will become larger. It's just the way of things.

08 was a shitty year to graduate and enter the real world. But I'm very happy to have many decades of good fortune in front of me.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #74,363
  • Mar 9, 2018 12:05pm Mar 9, 2018 12:05pm
took a loss on some shorts yesterday at 106.25, still think it was a decent level, but time and day where not optimal really...anyways, next week, will be looking at these three levels to start....have a good weekend, PTL...
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #74,364
  • Mar 9, 2018 12:06pm Mar 9, 2018 12:06pm
If I was in control of a huge stock market company and the gov just gave me huge tax breaks, what would I do? All I'm hearing is these companies are saying they are buying back there own stock. Interesting. So at the top of a market, so many companies are buying back there own stock! Why? Do they believe it's gonna go up another 10,000 points and make profit on them? Or are they buying back to prevent losing control when the market falls and the other wealthy elements of society interested in accumulating their stock can buy massive amounts on the cheap and gain control of them! Just my stupid thinking. Perhaps there is much for me to learn. Why else would I be clamoring to buy my own stock at the highest prices? Hmmm...
  • #74,365
  • Mar 9, 2018 12:21pm Mar 9, 2018 12:21pm
Quoting nealpek
If I was in control of a huge stock market company and the gov just gave me huge tax breaks, what would I do? All I'm hearing is these companies are saying they are buying back there own stock. Interesting. So at the top of a market, so many companies are buying back there own stock! Why? Do they believe it's gonna go up another 10,000 points and make profit on them? Or are they buying back to prevent losing control when the market falls and the other wealthy elements of society interested in accumulating their stock can buy massive amounts on the...
To delay the fall in share value at the company's expense of course. Share value has little importance to a company that is self-sustaining over the long-haul. Sell the shares as the company buys them, then the value drops, then buy them back near the bottom when the company re-issues them. If the company doesn't re-issue them at that time then it's unlikely to still be a company or it has no need to re-issue them because it has sustained itself through the recession.

Basically using company funds to provide exit liquidity. That's the way I see it at least.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #74,366
  • Edited 12:41pm Mar 9, 2018 12:24pm | Edited 12:41pm
I've seen this son an NFP a couple years ago I believe..... Won't go up to 107.30 this week but maybe monday-sundayish? Aslong as it doesn't correct below 106.20ish. It's just removing resistances atm. I also have to make note of the entry into 106 being improper. There is a potential this is the new top.
  • #74,367
  • Mar 9, 2018 2:06pm Mar 9, 2018 2:06pm
The pair pulled back from the daily high, but bulls do not give up. Indicators on dialy chart are aiming north, so I expect a convincing break through the 107.00.
  • #74,368
  • Mar 9, 2018 2:09pm Mar 9, 2018 2:09pm
LOL, see the nasty cleanout that just occurred?
  • #74,369
  • Mar 9, 2018 3:26pm Mar 9, 2018 3:26pm
Quoting RondaRousey
long @ 106
long@106
current 106.8

how many pips noobs for one trade?
Call was made over 43hrs ago
Without knowing news: BoJ, NFP
No chart, no indicators, no trading system used on FF

You came here for the truth and let me unveil it for you
  • #74,370
  • Mar 9, 2018 3:35pm Mar 9, 2018 3:35pm
Quoting nealpek
If I was in control of a huge stock market company and the gov just gave me huge tax breaks, what would I do? All I'm hearing is these companies are saying they are buying back there own stock. Interesting. So at the top of a market, so many companies are buying back there own stock! Why? Do they believe it's gonna go up another 10,000 points and make profit on them? Or are they buying back to prevent losing control when the market falls and the other wealthy elements of society interested in accumulating their stock can buy massive amounts on the...
Nice speculation. I agree.
  • #74,371
  • Mar 9, 2018 4:17pm Mar 9, 2018 4:17pm
Buying back stock is an easy way to make the earnings per share (on the now smaller float) look "bigger".

Which of course gets the CEO and all those others at the top - bigger paychecks, bigger bonuses, bigger dividends on their shares they continue holding and if they cash out some of that stock and/or options bigger payoffs. Big, big, big.
  • #74,372
  • Mar 9, 2018 5:25pm Mar 9, 2018 5:25pm
Quoting SunTrader
Buying back stock is an easy way to make the earnings per share (on the now smaller float) look "bigger". Which of course gets the CEO and all those others at the top - bigger paychecks, bigger bonuses, bigger dividends on their shares they continue holding and if they cash out some of that stock and/or options bigger payoffs. Big, big, big.
Sure, but the price is also being buoyed. You're either getting better dividends on a price that should otherwise be declining but is being temporarily held up or buying into rising prices for dividends that'll hardly compensate for the impending selloff. Either way; not a good situation for getting into or staying in unless you're able to get out quick. It's like buying the Lira for 7% interest when inflation is in the double digits. If you need to be told that something's a great opportunity just run for the hills.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #74,373
  • Mar 9, 2018 5:41pm Mar 9, 2018 5:41pm
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Yes, usually years beforehand towards the end of the last bear market. The last bubble was extremely large for bad reasons and I believe a lot of people learned a lot of lessons from it. The fallout is still very fresh in their memory. I don't expect this one to be nearly as large. Though the next one will certainly be bigger. This is still the spring cycle. As the 08 crisis fades into the past and the old who lost their entire savings towards the end of their lives become a distant memory the bubbles will become larger. It's just the way...
I would have to disagree that this one won't be as big, I think it will be bigger. Government debt is way higher than it was then and citizen debt thsi month has just come out as hitting peak levels similar to those in 07
  • #74,374
  • Mar 9, 2018 5:59pm Mar 9, 2018 5:59pm
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Sure, but the price is also being buoyed. You're either getting better dividends on a price that should otherwise be declining but is being temporarily held up or buying into rising prices for dividends that'll hardly compensate for the impending selloff. Either way; not a good situation for getting into or staying in unless you're able to get out quick. It's like buying the Lira for 7% interest when inflation is in the double digits. If you need to be told that something's a great opportunity just run for the hills.
My post was strictly about why companies do it. Not whether it is a good sign for someone looking to buy new shares or add to what they have already.
  • #74,375
  • Mar 9, 2018 6:26pm Mar 9, 2018 6:26pm
So what do they eventually do with the stock they've accumulated. Are they dumping it eventually, or going through another mechanism of absorption, removing them permanently from the market, and then re-issuing new stock after let's say a crash? What actually happens to the shares they buy back?
  • #74,376
  • Edited 7:07pm Mar 9, 2018 6:31pm | Edited 7:07pm
Quoting Seshwaan
{quote} I would have to disagree that this one won't be as big, I think it will be bigger. Government debt is way higher than it was then and citizen debt thsi month has just come out as hitting peak levels similar to those in 07
They're just numbers. It's all relative to the systemic risk. What really matters is what breaks down first and how the herd responds to it psychologically. Few people alive had witnessed The Great Depression and the previous two decades had drawn them into complacency. Not to mention globalization was sort of in it's infancy. I'm less concerned with the financial downside and more concerned with the herd getting rowdy. Thankfully, my generation of millennials are much better at being abused than they are at actually taking action(however misappropriated it may be). We really are a pitiful sight. Here's to hoping the next pandemic strikes swiftly since the main problem is they're still fucking like rabbits; cheers!

Quoting nealpek
So what do they eventually do with the stock they've accumulated. Are they dumping it eventually, or going through another mechanism of absorption, removing them permanently from the market, and then re-issuing new stock after let's say a crash? What actually happens to the shares they buy back?
At this point in the cycle it's not accumulation so much as consolidation. At least in my eyes. To my understanding the shares still exist as company assets(or liabilities, really) but are taken off the market for now.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #74,377
  • Mar 9, 2018 7:18pm Mar 9, 2018 7:18pm
I think you could say the shares are now assets of the company increasing shareholder value. As all assets are owned by shareholders.
  • #74,378
  • Mar 10, 2018 8:11am Mar 10, 2018 8:11am
Maybe the scenario of next Week
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  • #74,379
  • Mar 10, 2018 8:31am Mar 10, 2018 8:31am
Strong weekly close. Probability of higher over next week or so... but this is Trading. One word from trump or BOJ and the pair moves erratically.
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  • #74,380
  • Mar 10, 2018 9:31am Mar 10, 2018 9:31am
So it turns out that Trumpie Tariff with "NO exemptions" had two made right away lol Canada and Mexico and now Admininstration is working on one for Australia with EU, South Korea, Brazil and Japan all calling for the same. Meanwhile I read last week that one of the main reason our North America key trading partners were initially included is because China was transshipping through them (especially Mexico) to sneak in steel and aluminum imports.

How Trump’s tariffs morphed from 'no exemptions' to carve-outs galore

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/10/how-...ts-galore.html


A little extra emphasis of how stooopid tariffs really are (listen for quote at the end especially):

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