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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #74,341
  • Mar 9, 2018 8:02am Mar 9, 2018 8:02am
Quoting nealpek
Awesome! non farm up, but unemployment actually increased. Hourly earnings actually went down. Good news? Shows you the mass of people not working!! Good indicator of what's really going on. Not very impressive....
NFP better than expected at 315K but we probably should be hitting 400 to 500K+ with the years of low employment and stagnant wages.

Wage increases less than expected at .1. Unemployment rate (complete fraud) went up to 4.1%. Combined with the consumer confidence index, my feel on it is...

The middle class likes Trump's tax cut and feel more confident with more in their paycheck. People are more optimistic than they should be. We are far from being out of the forest. A lot more work to do and with our debt bubble and immigration situation/visa situation not resolved, we are running on fumes. But at least we have fumes.

Probably a good time to sell into the over-confidence and wait to see how things play out.
  • #74,342
  • Mar 9, 2018 8:17am Mar 9, 2018 8:17am
Quoting unlv_tj
{quote} NFP better than expected at 315K but we probably should be hitting 400 to 500K+ with the years of low employment and stagnant wages. Wage increases less than expected at .1. Unemployment rate (complete fraud) went up to 4.1%. Combined with the consumer confidence index, my feel on it is... The middle class likes Trump's tax cut and feel more confident with more in their paycheck. People are more optimistic than they should be. We are far from being out of the forest. A lot more work to do and with our debt bubble and immigration situation/visa...
no, the NFP report was not that good.

wage inflation and unemployment rate was worse than expected
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Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #74,343
  • Mar 9, 2018 8:23am Mar 9, 2018 8:23am
went short USD, see how it plays out
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #74,344
  • Mar 9, 2018 8:31am Mar 9, 2018 8:31am
If it's going south, they'll wait for ny open and the added liquidity to take it down. Who knows? All speculation! Welcome to trading.....
  • #74,345
  • Mar 9, 2018 8:32am Mar 9, 2018 8:32am
Quoting nealpek
If it's going south, they'll wait for ny open and the added liquidity to take it down. Who knows? All speculation! Welcome to trading.....
USD being sold on other pairs

107.3 is the level that it needs to get over today
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #74,346
  • Mar 9, 2018 8:33am Mar 9, 2018 8:33am
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} no, the NFP report was not that good. wage inflation and unemployment rate was worse than expected
I didn't say it was good, I said the new jobs were better than expected. The unemployment (fraud) was up and the earnings were up less than expected.

All in all, I would call it "disappointing" but not disappointing enough to get Americans to turn sour so the optimism continues, though it shouldn't.
  • #74,347
  • Mar 9, 2018 9:38am Mar 9, 2018 9:38am
Quoting unlv_tj
{quote} I didn't say it was good, I said the new jobs were better than expected. The unemployment (fraud) was up and the earnings were up less than expected. All in all, I would call it "disappointing" but not disappointing enough to get Americans to turn sour so the optimism continues, though it shouldn't.
You are right, but is better for us wait 1 pullback before to open more longs.
Together we can be strongest
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  • #74,348
  • Mar 9, 2018 10:39am Mar 9, 2018 10:39am
longs not doing good now?
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #74,349
  • Mar 9, 2018 10:43am Mar 9, 2018 10:43am
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newzTrader
  • #74,350
  • Mar 9, 2018 10:48am Mar 9, 2018 10:48am
Newsnooze.
  • #74,351
  • Mar 9, 2018 10:54am Mar 9, 2018 10:54am
The bloom looks to be off the (n.Korean)rose. Seems headed back down into the lower 106.s' with the 10y treas yields headed up.
More of the same?
good luck,
regards
goma
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  • #74,352
  • Mar 9, 2018 10:58am Mar 9, 2018 10:58am
what a big dump on Friday

every long was happy until now
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #74,353
  • Mar 9, 2018 11:00am Mar 9, 2018 11:00am
Quoting MrPresident
longs not doing good now?
Inability to stay above 107. Not convinced yet.
  • #74,354
  • Mar 9, 2018 11:03am Mar 9, 2018 11:03am
I still maintain a southward sentiment on this pair.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #74,355
  • Mar 9, 2018 11:06am Mar 9, 2018 11:06am
it got stuck near the bottom of the NFP spike, looks like it was just profit taking before the weekend
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #74,356
  • Mar 9, 2018 11:07am Mar 9, 2018 11:07am
Quoting KeenPips
I still maintain a southward sentiment on this pair. KP
I most certainly hope so.
  • #74,357
  • Mar 9, 2018 11:15am Mar 9, 2018 11:15am
stocks could end strong today, don't know for sure
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  • #74,358
  • Edited 11:38am Mar 9, 2018 11:21am | Edited 11:38am
Quoting nealpek
No doubt every retail trader went long on this news. Be careful....
I was already short USD/JPY. I got royally fucked with high leverage on GBP/JPY when the news hit(and I was pretty much capped out on margin for that matter with all the positions I built overnight long on JPY). Thank God for triangular arbitrage. I'm slowly crawling my way out of the disaster.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #74,359
  • Mar 9, 2018 11:45am Mar 9, 2018 11:45am
Contrarian thinking has served me well in the markets. I understand, probably not fully, about all the trickery in forex and the stock market! As banks, who control all markets are in it strictly for profit, my other way of thinking is always skeptical of any news releases, good or bad. Fact is Markets are traded and turn before the public is ever aware of a real problem. Fact: dow dropped significantly in a short period of time, but for no known reason. We're told economy is good and strong(which I don't believe), jobs numbers are good, blah blah. But the market fell hard, and has started to very slowly creep higher. Each successive push up is met with equal or greater force back down. Today's number are being touted as fantastic, amazing, unbelievable which in my mind equals getting the sheep to have confidence and buy into a market they are dumping and reversing positions into. The old addage still rings true. When they are telling you things are great but the dow doesn't really go up, red flag. Just like at the bottom of the last crash, when every commentator was preaching how awful, crappy, and hopeless the markets were, best time to buy!
That's the way I look at and approach the markets. To be honest, I don't even trust the numbers released today, as those with the capability to print money have all governments in their pockets. Euphoric numbers at the height of a 10 year bull market, makes me look for where the 50 percent dow drop will be, and my stock selection for my portfolio once it does.
  • #74,360
  • Mar 9, 2018 11:52am Mar 9, 2018 11:52am
Quoting nealpek
Contrarian thinking has served me well in the markets. I understand, probably not fully, about all the trickery in forex and the stock market! As banks, who control all markets are in it strictly for profit, my other way of thinking is always skeptical of any news releases, good or bad. Fact is Markets are traded and turn before the public is ever aware of a real problem. Fact: dow dropped significantly in a short period of time, but for no known reason. We're told economy is good and strong(which I don't believe), jobs numbers are good, blah blah....
A market that won't go up on bullish news isn't a bull market.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
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