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EUR/JPY

  • #4,581
  • Mar 8, 2018 11:44am Mar 8, 2018 11:44am
Quoting krecci
It's remarkable. I should start posting every time I enter a trade so everyone here can STAY OUT or take the opposite side as the market has stopped me out of every trade in the past 2 weeks. I went short around 131.35 in anticipation of the highly probable move that would occur downward and got stopped out all the way up at 131.90. I'm not sure if this spike was news related or the market makers had me and other bears in their sights but it's discouraging to say the least. Did any traders here stay out and for what reason? Could the bullish spike...
yea, look at my post from earlier this week where I show on the chart where the pair could go

it went right where I predicted and then reversed

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...0#post10836340
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #4,582
  • Mar 8, 2018 12:35pm Mar 8, 2018 12:35pm
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} yea, look at my post from earlier this week where I show on the chart where the pair could go it went right where I predicted and then reversed https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...0#post10836340
Hey, sorry but where do you say price would spike up 80 pips to 132 before continuing its bearish move? Or are you saying that I should have placed my SL around some SMA rather than previous high? Thanks
  • #4,583
  • Mar 8, 2018 1:10pm Mar 8, 2018 1:10pm
Quoting krecci
{quote} Hey, sorry but where do you say price would spike up 80 pips to 132 before continuing its bearish move? Or are you saying that I should have placed my SL around some SMA rather than previous high? Thanks
it shows that if you had your stop at 132.6, then you would have been saved
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #4,584
  • Mar 8, 2018 2:12pm Mar 8, 2018 2:12pm
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} it shows that if you had your stop at 132.6, then you would have been saved
That would've given my first, second, and third take profits a risk/reward of 0.50, 0.75, and 1 respectively - hardly a trade I or anyone else would take. I would rarely have a trade with higher than a 1 to 1 risk/reward ratio in my trading If I paid heed to the 20 MA offset in placing stop losses, especially trading the 1 and 4HR charts. I put my stop at the previous high because all it would take if that resistance around 131.80 is broken would be a higher low for bullish bias to seep in and go against me.

The real issue is price not respecting key levels and moving frantically and unpredictably in whatever direction it and/or the market makers choose. In this case, it was nearly 100 pips up before the real downward move, taking me and I'm sure a lot of other frustrated retail traders out of the game. Probably the 4th time it's happened in the past 2 weeks because I still can't figure out a long term, not trade by trade, solution to entering positions that ride price smoothly while avoiding the ones preceded by whipsaws, unexpected consolidation, random price action, etc. I'm being taken out on really good trades at the moment because it's hard to be cautious of these unexpected occurrences while also catching the quick and highly voluminous moves.
  • #4,585
  • Mar 8, 2018 2:35pm Mar 8, 2018 2:35pm
yeah, i think anyone would have a hard time day trading these markets unless they are trading a grid or have a long term trade on. i have a 32% win rate with 1:1 R/R in the last 2 weeks. absolutely terrible.....
Believe your right, till proven wrong. Doubt is the greatest enemy.
  • #4,586
  • Mar 8, 2018 9:40pm Mar 8, 2018 9:40pm
Quoting krecci
It's remarkable. I should start posting every time I enter a trade so everyone here can STAY OUT or take the opposite side as the market has stopped me out of every trade in the past 2 weeks. I went short around 131.35 in anticipation of the highly probable move that would occur downward and got stopped out all the way up at 131.90. I'm not sure if this spike was news related or the market makers had me and other bears in their sights but it's discouraging to say the least. Did any traders here stay out and for what reason? Could the bullish spike...
word of advise take it or leave it, it's totally up to you.

I don't know why people trade with stop losses, smh... anyway bro. Use 1000-1 ratio bro. if you have $100 in your account trade @ 0.01 a pip.
that trade needs to go above or below 500pip to get you to -$50 if it would chunk into your account, which probably won't get to that stage.

Hey stop loss might work if you in an unsure trade and leaving the office for 3 hours and there's big news coming out, whatever your reason might be, but in essence trade mental stop loss. If you stayed in just for a little longer then you would be in the green.

Hey man its your choice bro. I'm shocked that no one told you this, since we are all here to learn from another and make money. or maybe you know this but haven't used it because of emotional trading. Let me not blame my trading comrades if you know the solution to the problem.

Shalom
  • #4,587
  • Mar 8, 2018 9:44pm Mar 8, 2018 9:44pm
Quoting Pipclimax
{quote} word of advise take it or leave it, it's totally up to you. I don't know why people trade with stop losses, smh... anyway bro. Use 1000-1 ratio bro. if you have $100 in your account trade @ 0.01 a pip. that trade needs to go above or below 500pip to get you to -$50 if it would chunk into your account, which probably won't get to that stage. Hey stop loss might work if you in an unsure trade and leaving the office for 3 hours and there's big news coming out, whatever your reason might be, but in essence trade mental stop loss. If you stayed...
Intraday only.
  • #4,588
  • Mar 9, 2018 12:26pm Mar 9, 2018 12:26pm
Quoting Pipclimax
{quote} word of advise take it or leave it, it's totally up to you. I don't know why people trade with stop losses, smh... anyway bro. Use 1000-1 ratio bro. if you have $100 in your account trade @ 0.01 a pip. that trade needs to go above or below 500pip to get you to -$50 if it would chunk into your account, which probably won't get to that stage. Hey stop loss might work if you in an unsure trade and leaving the office for 3 hours and there's big news coming out, whatever your reason might be, but in essence trade mental stop loss.
Thanks for that. Been using stop losses ever since a couple months ago when GBP/JPY indicated bears were stepping in at the top of a downward range and it was clearly a sell. I put in my order, thought I'd come back in a little to check price and maybe set a loose stop loss above the range. Price dropped in my direction then swiftly reversed, no more than a fakeout/whipsaw/retracement I thought, and managed to move a couple hundred pips in less than a day and several hundred more after that. I had no stop loss in place and in deep trouble just after a single hourly candle or two.

I am interested however as to how you make it work. The market is obviously fickle and can go from bearish to bullish with little to no signal so in trading a mental stop loss how do you control when it's time to let a losing position cut into your account and when you should let it run in hope of price reversing in your favor? It's hard enough to consistently choose 55%+ winning trades but to then add an extra layer of randomness when looking at price action to know if it's time to drop a trade or not can be tricky. And in the long term, I know getting stopped out for small but consistent losses can cut into your account but 1 or 2 bad trades without a stop loss and/or during a time when price moved swiftly and unpredictably and your eyes were not watching can make a big dent equal to various winning trades.

I'm sure you make it work for yourself, just thinking how I'd manage it myself. Cheers.
  • #4,589
  • Mar 9, 2018 1:47pm Mar 9, 2018 1:47pm
Quoting krecci
{quote} Thanks for that. Been using stop losses ever since a couple months ago when GBP/JPY indicated bears were stepping in at the top of a downward range and it was clearly a sell. I put in my order, thought I'd come back in a little to check price and maybe set a loose stop loss above the range. Price dropped in my direction then swiftly reversed, no more than a fakeout/whipsaw/retracement I thought, and managed to move a couple hundred pips in less than a day and several hundred more after that. I had no stop loss in place and in deep trouble...
trade small risks relative to your account, use a wide stop, and then profit from the direction of the trend
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #4,590
  • Mar 10, 2018 9:42pm Mar 10, 2018 9:42pm
Quoting krecci
{quote} Thanks for that. Been using stop losses ever since a couple months ago when GBP/JPY indicated bears were stepping in at the top of a downward range and it was clearly a sell. I put in my order, thought I'd come back in a little to check price and maybe set a loose stop loss above the range. Price dropped in my direction then swiftly reversed, no more than a fakeout/whipsaw/retracement I thought, and managed to move a couple hundred pips in less than a day and several hundred more after that. I had no stop loss in place and in deep trouble...
Trading GBP/JPY called the "Dragon"is not a trade you would want to leave alone at all. This is a very volatile pair. The same as the GBP/NZD and some others. There's a saying" the house always wins", for beginners this is true and the worst choice that they've made once they start with the journey of trading or gambling, but with time if they have mega math brains or in a normal case study the game, time after time, loss after loss and finally figure out why they lost, after spending loads of $ which they probably lend, most importantly not giving up they start making much more then they've lost. They start to win so much that they forget how it feels to loose but always remember where they've started, you kinda get my point.

If it is your goal to master the GBP/JPY then like I mentioned before trade on the smallest scale. Study what moves the market. Get to know what the market does once there are news on the financial calendar and what it does when there are no news. If you do this and you still loosing then move down to a slower moving pair like, the USD/CHF or AUD/USD etc. pairs with close pip spread range.

To answer your question on how I do it, is simple. You need to determine what type of trader you are namely:

  1. Scalping trader
  2. Short position trader
  3. Day trader
  4. Position trader (long time periods) etc.


Once you know the answer you'll find more answers to your questions. You can look at it this way, you can watch how trading signals are being posted in the group and trade from that, and see if its true? then ask the people posting the trade signal, how they knew that it was gonna happen, or find your own way. Hey to me it really doesn't matter as long as you get the understanding. Don't be hasty to trade live, that's why there is a demo account. If you can make money on your demo account, well then its obvious you'll make money on your live account.

Also don't worry about loosing out on a trade telling yourself, "if only I was in on that trade...." you'll get in on that trade once you have the understanding, then you'll make the green . The only relevant portal is.

  • #4,591
  • Mar 11, 2018 3:56pm Mar 11, 2018 3:56pm
Appreciate it pip, I'm trying to learn from my mistakes but there's a lot of randomness in the Forex market that makes it hard to commit the same error twice (and learn from it) because price is always moving differently whether it's consolidating, trending, in a pattern, etc. News events add an even deeper layer of unpredictability to an already emotional arena. I've been getting the impression these past couple months that news and fundamentals play an overwhelmingly larger part than technicals when it comes to price movement. That may be common sense for some but I always got the impression one could rely entirely on technical trading.

I can get stopped out by a spike one trade and then decide to wait for a fakeout on the next trade only to miss a 50-100 pip move... Even with correct predictions, I'm not sure how I can deal with this. Wait for a pullback that may or may not occur, enter with a terrible risk/reward ratio for a measly 20,30% of the move?
The things I can learn and improve on my side are risk management, trade signal/stop loss discipline, and controlling your emotions. Demo traded for 6 months, broke even on 1 account and some profit on 2 others. Nothing amazing and utterly boring/unfulfilling but I may have to get back to fake money and give it time as you say or just quit all together in bitter defeat and become part of the 95%.

Cheers and good luck this week
  • #4,592
  • Mar 12, 2018 1:36am Mar 12, 2018 1:36am
Quoting krecci
Appreciate it pip, I'm trying to learn from my mistakes but there's a lot of randomness in the Forex market that makes it hard to commit the same error twice (and learn from it) because price is always moving differently whether it's consolidating, trending, in a pattern, etc. News events add an even deeper layer of unpredictability to an already emotional arena. I've been getting the impression these past couple months that news and fundamentals play an overwhelmingly larger part than technicals when it comes to price movement. That may be common...
Tell you what, if things don't workout for you this week, stop trading for a week, clear your mind and try again.

I had the same attitude 5 months into trading I told my broker the same scenario that this is not for me. You know what he told me:" its up to you",
its like he don't really care if I loose because they pocket all the way. I don't know if you know this but there are 2 groups of people, the Loosing group and winning group when it comes to your brokers, my fellow comrades can admonish me if I'm wrong. The 1st group consist of new traders that loose loose loose until they give, so money lost right. So what happens is that since you are a new trader your broker trade against you. The second group are those who constantly profit for about 6 months consistently, your broker trade with them, so your broker pockets all the way.

My point is this, whether you quit or continue the choice is yours. Only you can blame yourself for where you will be financially in the next sort term 5 years nobody else. I don't know maybe you have a serious job and will be okay in the future. I'f you are really serious like some of us are in this group then practice, practice, practice....

We win some and we loose some. Eventually if we stick to our strategy, we will win more then what we loose.

Make your choice.
  • #4,593
  • Mar 13, 2018 7:58pm Mar 13, 2018 7:58pm
?? Please explain this interesting observation on EURJPY.

Yesterday 12 march between approx 19.00-22.00 GMT the bid/ask spread widened to between 3-6 pips (from usual 0.6-0.9 pips) in my DukasCopy account..
It stayed like this for a long time. Think hours.
All while sticking in tight slightly upward channel which was not at any historic level (See circled area on 5 min chart attached)

Anyone have an explanation?

My own wild guess is that market participants saw that price was breaking downward trend on 4h chart, went heavy long, and that it was this buying that caused this wide spread?
However, I don't see how they were able to do this without moving market significantly higher?

Anyway, any input you may have is highly valued!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY 12 march.JPG Size: 79 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY 12 march 4 hour chart.JPG Size: 88 KB
  • #4,594
  • Mar 23, 2018 4:49am Mar 23, 2018 4:49am
Hello every body
we have a sell in e/j
  • #4,595
  • Mar 31, 2018 11:18pm Mar 31, 2018 11:18pm
Quoting saoldric
yeah, i think anyone would have a hard time day trading these markets unless they are trading a grid or have a long term trade on. i have a 32% win rate with 1:1 R/R in the last 2 weeks. absolutely terrible.....
Hey, how was your trading this march so far? Do you have any idea what changed in the market?
  • #4,596
  • Apr 3, 2018 9:00am Apr 3, 2018 9:00am
Bouncing off the MA, looks like we have a bit more downside momentum here. Risk at 130, currently JPY weakness is stopping this from follow EURUSD on the road down
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #4,597
  • Apr 3, 2018 3:43pm Apr 3, 2018 3:43pm
Buy setup

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.png Size: 114 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej2.png Size: 69 KB
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #4,598
  • Apr 4, 2018 3:46pm Apr 4, 2018 3:46pm
Quoting andoseg2
Buy setup {image} {image}
Update :

trade active

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.png Size: 43 KB
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #4,599
  • Apr 15, 2018 5:01am Apr 15, 2018 5:01am
EURJPY Pair Analysis
Time frame H4
Indicators of MA, Fibo, and Supdem lines, RSI,
The market closing condition in the pair EJ at the level of 132.36 and the price is still in bullish trend with the candle position above the MA line, the RSI is still above 50 as well as the stoch.
At the price fibo is in a retracement or correction with the support test restriction at the fibo level 132.14 and 131.80
Conclusion EJ pair is still bullish with price correction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_6.png Size: 239 KB
  • #4,600
  • Edited 9:52am Apr 15, 2018 5:42am | Edited 9:52am
Quoting andy4444
?? Please explain this interesting observation on EURJPY. Yesterday 12 march between approx 19.00-22.00 GMT the bid/ask spread widened to between 3-6 pips (from usual 0.6-0.9 pips) in my DukasCopy account.. It stayed like this for a long time. Think hours. All while sticking in tight slightly upward channel which was not at any historic level (See circled area on 5 min chart attached) Anyone have an explanation? My own wild guess is that market participants saw that price was breaking downward trend on 4h chart, went heavy long, and that it was...
Hi andy4444,
I don't know how long you have been looking at FX, but don't try to overthink what you think is happening in the market. You may indeed be right but it doesn't really matter at all what caused it, and one thing I have learned over the years is that banks move markets for what seems like no reason at all. As retail traders we can never have all the data and any idea as to bank's agendas or strategies so there's no point in trying to guess.
It's my belief that markets move in a random walk way with occasional Levy Flight, that's not to say markets are random all the time! As human beings we are always looking for reasons as to why things happen, and if we can't find any we make things up like patterns or sixth sense, when quite often it's just a chance happening.
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