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Trading Made Simple

  • #86,261
  • Edited 6:01pm Mar 5, 2018 5:49pm | Edited 6:01pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Look at USDCAD W1 and D1 charts after last Friday Close. There is a key resistance zone where it closed. What is the probability for H4 swing during the week? Buy or Sell? If we sell and the retracement is shallow, then the next reversal will be Buy. A strong reversal can break the resistance zone. What if the price break the high of last week and very little retracement? it would be Buy continuation. It is going to be interesting next week until the week 12 March 19 to 23. Anybody' guess but I trade what I see and be prepared...

USDCAD Week 10- Mar 05 POMO

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD Week 10 Mar 06 POMO.png Size: 87 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #86,262
  • Mar 6, 2018 12:57am Mar 6, 2018 12:57am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} The answer is in Big E post#647. How did he identify CONSOLIDATION? and he mention many times do not trade when the price is near or in a CONSOLIDATION. Consolidation zones are narrow range market type and this market type of market condition is not suitable for TMS 5-Method. How to identify CONSOLIDATION? Big E looked at the HA candles. He compared those HA candles size, when he sees small HA candles he would avoid trading the PA...

Good morning Emm.

What´s your "rule" to identify consolidation right in time to:
1. stay out
2.close a winning order
3. trade it in another timeframe.

There is always a consolidation in any TF-- when d1 goes sideways , there is a good chance to trade this range in h1 for example.

stay tuned
Guido
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
  • #86,263
  • Mar 6, 2018 8:26am Mar 6, 2018 8:26am
Hi!

Todays trades from 12:00PM to 16:00PM GMT+2
EJ sell -99 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 37 KB


AJ sell -78 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 34 KB


UJ sell -21 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 36 KB


SP
  • #86,264
  • Mar 6, 2018 8:43am Mar 6, 2018 8:43am
Quoting SuperPip
Hi! Todays trades from 12:00PM to 16:00PM GMT+2 EJ sell -99 pips {image} AJ sell -78 pips {image} UJ sell -21 pips {image} SP
-- 3 losers and 3 things in common..
- all JPY crosses.

If you seperate instruments in groups and pick only ONE of each group, you have better chances and less risk.

Guido
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
  • #86,265
  • Mar 6, 2018 11:45am Mar 6, 2018 11:45am
Quoting Ali.J
{quote} "Stay tuned for my life journey as a trader. I have found my shortcut after spending more than 10,000 hours" This means that it is impossible to shorten the road by using someone else's experience. In other words, there is no shortcut. But guess what This teacher does not differentiate me from anything. And the motives I have to continue this challenge, I am sure stronger than his motives. I will continue with what I have, I will try again and again and again to develop it and make it perfect . I hope that you will not stop offering advice...
Yes, you can shorten the road to success Ali.

Open a micro account with low leverage, depots minimum amount and start to trade with 0.01 lot size.
One of many web pages: http://www.forexearlywarning.com/blo...o-lot-trading/

Demo trading and back testing means nothing for it does not involve fear, greed. Live trading will show you in what area of your personality you need to better and also the method in use, like money management.

After you have experienced live trading and what it does to you when you lose money you do not want to lose, stop and think real hard "Do I want to be a trader"

No - Walk away, come back a other day.

Yes - Then the hard work start's.

BigE has showed the way in how to trade with TMS. Why not use his experience to become a better trader.
Down load BigE full.pdf, even better copy and past every post of BigE from this thread into word processor like MS Word or Open Office (https://www.investintech.com/article...dalternatives/)

With each and every post ask yourself a few basic question's: What, Way, How, When, Where.
Use the Search option in FF (top right) or Google
Find the answer to each question, when in doubt ask.
- Nial Fuller, Babypips, desiretotrade are just a few place that can help you
Make sure you understand every post and how to apply the contents of that post onto a chart correctly by practising.

Trading is simple and the most difficult profession to master.
Here are a few examples of how I study: Post 84,781, Post 84,888, Post 84,947
  • #86,266
  • Mar 6, 2018 3:38pm Mar 6, 2018 3:38pm
Thank you with all my heart, frankly I am very grateful to you
I do not do what happens with me. The more I read and the more I learned, the more ambiguous. My losses increased at the end.
The problem is that in the my country there are no job opportunities, and the government has prepared a program that prevents the placement for the next 4 years. In the end I do not have a choice for the normal way. I have to find a shortcut.
Imagine me since last September, I read, learn, watch and train 18-16 hours every day. Every day since then.
But I have not found my edge yet.
But I will never despair
Thank you for helping me on my way.
I pray to you, Lord, to make you happy in all circumstances
There is Light at the End of the Tunnel.
  • #86,267
  • Mar 6, 2018 4:14pm Mar 6, 2018 4:14pm
Quoting Sesamstrasse
{quote} Good morning Emm. What´s your "rule" to identify consolidation right in time to: 1. stay out 2.close a winning order 3. trade it in another timeframe. There is always a consolidation in any TF-- when d1 goes sideways , there is a good chance to trade this range in h1 for example. stay tuned Guido

If I have to state one 'rule', then it would be to follow a consistent approach in doing top down analysis and form your Big Picture Plan.

I don't care about those consolidations in low timeframes - H1 and below. They are all market noise.

I look at those MN price swing levels and see what happens around those MN levels.
MN dictates the market type in which I decide how I want to trade.

Look at EURAUD example below. After one big move candle (week 05 Feb 29 Mar 02), it consolidated for several weeks in narrow range trading until the big candle breakout. And now this week, it pauses again at a MN key level 1.5916. I see a resistance zone above, while some other traders may see this above as 'supply zone' and expects it will drop...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ERUAUD Week 10 Mar key levels.png Size: 39 KB


Master Candles is one pattern which I look at and avoid trading when the price is inside the high-low range of the Master Candles. Know the average ATR of the timeframes and the range of the pairs you trade.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #86,268
  • Mar 6, 2018 4:27pm Mar 6, 2018 4:27pm
Quoting SuperPip
Hi! Todays trades from 12:00PM to 16:00PM GMT+2 EJ sell -99 pips {image} AJ sell -78 pips {image} UJ sell -21 pips {image} SP

these JPY pairs are at key levels and always be careful when we see what we thought are good setups.

the smart money knows how to setup traders every day, every week, ... all the time.

when all these 4 pairs shows a setup at the same time, it is often too good to be true.

this is one reason why I only pick one of these in my group of 5 to take a trade.

If I take all 4 trades, then I must reduce risk and divide the %risk.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #86,269
  • Mar 6, 2018 4:33pm Mar 6, 2018 4:33pm
MASTER CANDLES H4

Talking about MC[3] now we see several potential MC[3] and these are good trade opportunities for the next 3 days trading H4.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #86,270
  • Mar 6, 2018 4:46pm Mar 6, 2018 4:46pm
FEAR and GREED

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD Week 10 H4 Mar 06.png Size: 43 KB


when there is both Fear and Greed, follow the Triple Screen and make a decision, follow Weekly and Daily. That is high probability.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #86,271
  • Mar 6, 2018 5:00pm Mar 6, 2018 5:00pm
Quoting Sesamstrasse
{quote} -- 3 losers and 3 things in common.. - all JPY crosses. If you seperate instruments in groups and pick only ONE of each group, you have better chances and less risk. Guido

Here is another example with CONSOLIDATION

GBPAUD D1.
There is MN key level 1.7779 which is 1.7800.
There is Weekly WRB High-Low
And we have PAC and price is trapped inside the PAC High-Low.

If I pick a breakout following the MN swing, it will be Buy to next level near 1.8750.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD Week 10 D1 CONSOLIDATION.png Size: 54 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #86,272
  • Mar 6, 2018 6:01pm Mar 6, 2018 6:01pm
AUDCAD Week 10 Mar 07 H4

struggles at BRN 1.0100

what is the 'trend'/ direction bias of the MN, W1 and D1?

is selling high probability trading?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD Week 10 Mar 07 H4 BRN 1.0100.png Size: 38 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #86,273
  • Mar 7, 2018 1:43am Mar 7, 2018 1:43am
another example of CONSOLIDATION

AUDUSD H4 Week 10.
After yesterday's high impact news release created a big candle aka Master Candle at BRN 0.7800

Its useless to trade TDI cross and bounce when the market is in CONSOLIDATION.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Week 10 Mar 07 MC.png Size: 43 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #86,274
  • Mar 7, 2018 1:50am Mar 7, 2018 1:50am
A price action example Double Inside Bar H4 breakout trade.

Moved SL to BE+.

Very likely will hit breakeven when London session open.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY Week 10 Mar07 DIB.png Size: 27 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #86,275
  • Mar 7, 2018 2:02am Mar 7, 2018 2:02am
LOSSES ...

Just closed two trades with losses.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD Week 10 Mar06 loss 30pips.png Size: 32 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD Week 10 Mar 06 loss32pips.png Size: 31 KB


Both pairs are in narrow range CONSOLIDATION seen with Master Candles. No point trading trading H4 now.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #86,276
  • Mar 7, 2018 5:49am Mar 7, 2018 5:49am
Emmanuel please don't take this the wrong way. You have said you have been trading a long time we all have losses from time to time But for some to say he is experienced and then to short in an uptrend with no clear price action saying uptrend is over tells me you might have experience but not good experience in trading. Pros don't trade like this
  • #86,277
  • Mar 7, 2018 7:09am Mar 7, 2018 7:09am
Quoting Divergence
Emmanuel please don't take this the wrong way. You have said you have been trading a long time we all have losses from time to time But for some to say he is experienced and then to short in an uptrend with no clear price action saying uptrend is over tells me you might have experience but not good experience in trading. Pros don't trade like this

@Divergence,

No worries.

I am not a 'pro' trader. I never claimed to be a pro trader. Just an ordinary trader who is retired and trades his own money. My experience taught me how to manage risks and also to take some losses.

I do take counter trend trades when I see them. As in the case of USDCAD, I posted early this week that I would be taking both trend and counter trend trades as I trade the 4H swings during the week which can be following the weekly trend of counter trend when I see possible corrections.

When I take counter trend trades, I know they are riskier and I will only take them with profits from earlier trades closed. I have +248 pips profits from earlier trades closed.

The same for the GBPUSD trades. I have +228 pips profits from previous closed trades.

The other reason why I posted those 2 trades as examples is also to answer the question by member and to show the market consolidation using Master Candles and how I would close trades when the trades are not likely to go any where.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD trades closed week 09 10.png Size: 36 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD trades closed week 09 10.png Size: 36 KB


Anyway, I trade using the PAC instead of the 5EMA. My trade manager EA does most of the trades and management because I do not want to be glued to my PC for hours every day. I only need to login when I get alerted and to check once a while to manually manage some trades.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #86,278
  • Mar 7, 2018 8:24am Mar 7, 2018 8:24am
Hi!

Todays trade:
GBPUSD sell 4H -11,5 pips

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 19 KB


SP
  • #86,279
  • Mar 7, 2018 8:31am Mar 7, 2018 8:31am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Anyway, I trade using the PAC instead of the 5EMA. My trade manager EA does most of the trades and management because I do not want to be glued to my PC for hours every day. I only need to login when I get alerted and to check once a while to manually manage some trades.
Hi Emm!

Thank you for your posts and comments.
Picture is better, if I add PAC to my charts.
Can you share, when your EA closes trades?

With regards,
SP
  • #86,280
  • Mar 7, 2018 8:50am Mar 7, 2018 8:50am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} I do take counter trend trades when I see them.
This I cannot understand. Ever. As a fellow hobby trader. Like you...

Your two image examples were NOT counter trend trades and they are a very good example how counter trend trades are simply useless. Why open against the movement, when you can do it with the movement, when the right recline comes?!?

Good trading!
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
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