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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #2,681
  • Feb 28, 2018 11:41am Feb 28, 2018 11:41am
GBPJPY

Quoting BeeCee
Hi Strat, Another analysis on GBP JPY. Looks like interesting times ahead. Big Boss: Long term down trend and immediate uptrend. Big boys didn't show interest on this pair for the last few months. However, now they seem to be interested in pushing the price down. Significant monthly support 148.19 looks to be breaking. As usual, we need to wait for today's close(being end of the month close) for it to close below that. I am not predicting waiting and watching. Boss: The supporting trend line that has been supporting since the beginning of the hammer...
Now strat's feedback please.

First, BC, do NOT restrict feedback from only me. You need to encourage feedback from your fellow traders because EVERYONE sees different things.

Big Boss: Long term down trend and immediate uptrend. Big boys didn't show interest on this pair for the last few months. However, now they seem to be interested in pushing the price down. Significant monthly support 148.19 looks to be breaking. As usual, we need to wait for today's close(being end of the month close) for it to close below that. I am not predicting waiting and watching.

Very good. You have correctly identified your support and resistance levels.

Boss: The supporting trend line that has been supporting since the beginning of the hammer on 2nd October, looks to be breaking. WCC also under threat. Again, we need to wait until end of this week to confirm anything. The last upper trend in the weekly charts didn't have much of momentum going up. Keeping a watch.

Your trend line is not drawn correctly. PASR always draws trend lines from the root through significant swings - Try again.

The last upper trend in the weekly charts didn't have much of momentum going up

Please show me this ""last upper trend""

Worker: The last LL is at 146.927 which is a significant support even in the past. Price is close to the support. Breaking that support (only by a close of candle beyond that support) is significant for us to wait for PA and enter. Overall keeping a watch.

The last LL is at 146.927

Almost right. The last major swing low is at 146.92. Make sure you can SEE this CONFIRMATION on the Boss.

significant support

Do not try and differentiate support and resistance at your level as it will confuse you. For where you are now, support is support and resistance is resistance.

Very good. You are well and truly on The Path.

Why are you showing 3 digits after the decimal point on JPY pairs? I have posted before that there are only 2 digits for JPY pairs.

Next, although much further on The Path than where you are now, consider adding the Strat Shadow.

Since you are able to do the 3 time frame analysis very well, we need to see your UNDERSTANDING of The Power of Time Frames so go the next step and try to identify trades.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,682
  • Feb 28, 2018 12:06pm Feb 28, 2018 12:06pm
Quoting strat
GBPNZD M5 FAIL {quote} First, thank you for posting your "failed" trade as it is from "failures" that WE learn the most. I have duplicated your entry (blue arrow) on my trading chart - would you still have taken this trade if you were on my chart? The difference is you failed to identify the support and resistance level on H1 In fact I don't see any support and resistance levels on your chart. The next is that you entered 6 candles late. PRICE had already dropped 20 pips, which, even though this is the most volatile pair, is a lot to "give away"...
Hi Bistolis

"Would it be a good entry to go long after first hour of London closes?

There are many traders who do not trade the opening hour of London and wait for PRICE to ""settle"" down. I can't help you with this as I have never traded London but hopefully others on here that do trade London will comment on this."

I've highlighted two charts the 1st is 1 hour with the box where I see resistance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This second chart is the 5 minute with the box highlighted from that specific 1 hour candle you mentioned.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZDM5.png Size: 70 KB


You can now clearly see what happened. The candle that you mentioned as a buy signal would have been the opposite for me, I would be looking out for reverse in direction.

Look at how long the 5 min has been tracking up the shadow since yesterday and was now beginning to flatten out.

Unfortunately your entry got taken out by the big boys on the way up collecting buys so they could sell all the way down this afternoon.

I watch all the GBP pairs during the London morning session and sometimes one of them makes a move before the others... they are all highly manipulated and if it doesn't feel right I stay out. Especially when they all make identical patterns at the same time.

The key is keep watching every day and if you can't review them bar by bar when you have spare time..

Good effort though, I didn't trade today and it looks like there were some good moves.
Private Msgs are turned off to weirdos, loafs and brain drainers
  • #2,683
  • Feb 28, 2018 12:11pm Feb 28, 2018 12:11pm
Quoting strat
GBPJPY {quote} Now strat's feedback please. First, BC, do NOT restrict feedback from only me. You need to encourage feedback from your fellow traders because EVERYONE sees different things. Big Boss: Long term down trend and immediate uptrend. Big boys didn't show interest on this pair for the last few months. However, now they seem to be interested in pushing the price down. Significant monthly support 148.19 looks to be breaking. As usual, we need to wait for today's close(being end of the month close) for it to close below that. I am not predicting...
Hi Strat,

Going forward will request feedback from everyone..

Your trend line is not drawn correctly. PASR always draws trend lines from the root through significant swings - Try again - What is a significant swing. I am understanding this as any swing low that breaks a previous LL and Any swing high that breaks previous HH. Is that right understanding. I have remade the trend line with that understanding. Please suggest.

Please show me this ""last upper trend"" - Highlighted in yellow. when I look at the swings and the momentum through the candles (last upper cycle). It looks for me that its not getting anywhere when I try to read the price.

Almost right. The last major swing low is at 146.92. Make sure you can SEE this CONFIRMATION on the Boss. - This time I see it. However is it mandatory condition for us to consider a swing low in a worker, the boss has to necessarily have a swing low. If not don't we consider is at a Swing low. How does it work. I understand a confirmed and an unconfirmed swing low within a timeframe. However this is different. Can you please explain.

Next, although much further on The Path than where you are now, consider adding the Strat Shadow - Honestly, I am scared to ask you because, you have ripped people apart whoever asked you that. I know 20 and 50 MAs work as strat shadows. However, I need to deep dive on the exact ways of SS working. I am yet to get there. If you don't mind you may share it with me.

Since you are able to do the 3 time frame analysis very well, we need to see your UNDERSTANDING of The Power of Time Frames so go the next step and try to identify trades. - I did identify a trade. A BEOB or a shooting star below 146.92 is when I will look to enter. is that a right approach.

THanks
Beecee
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  • #2,684
  • Feb 28, 2018 12:11pm Feb 28, 2018 12:11pm
GBPNZD H1

Quoting bistolis
this one {image}
My apologies, I thought you meant the candle marked by my blue arrows BUT the answer is still the same - no.

The reason for the "no" is that candle I have marked with my blue arrows. That is a long legged doji which tells us of indecision - the buyers and sellers have reached equilibrium/balance and have agreed on PRICE. Simply put, neither the buyers nor the sellers have any interest in moving PRICE in their favour. When this happens at resistance it usually, but not always, means the buyers have "run out of steam". This tells PASR traders to either find another pair or WAIT for PRICE ACTION to tell us what to do.

In the event you failed to SEE that long legged doji, your RISK to Reward would only have been 1:1 and only 30 or so pips which would have had a low probability of profit since PRICE is already at resistance.

I know you are new to PASR but try and think of the traders trading behind the candles instead of ""just candles""

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,685
  • Feb 28, 2018 12:11pm Feb 28, 2018 12:11pm
Quoting BeyondTheSea
{quote} Hi Bistolis "Would it be a good entry to go long after first hour of London closes? There are many traders who do not trade the opening hour of London and wait for PRICE to ""settle"" down. I can't help you with this as I have never traded London but hopefully others on here that do trade London will comment on this." I've highlighted two charts the 1st is 1 hour with the box where I see resistance. {image} This second chart is the 5 minute with the box highlighted from that specific 1 hour candle you mentioned. {image} You can now clearly...
thanks
very valid observations.
although the area you highlighted is the top of the tokyo range
  • #2,686
  • Feb 28, 2018 12:13pm Feb 28, 2018 12:13pm
Quoting strat
GBPNZD H1 {quote} My apologies, I thought you meant the candle marked by my blue arrows BUT the answer is still the same - no. The reason for the "no" is that candle I have marked with my blue arrows. That is a long legged doji which tells us of indecision - the buyers and sellers have reached equilibrium/balance and have agreed on PRICE. Simply put, neither the buyers nor the sellers have any interest in moving PRICE in their favour. When this happens at resistance it usually, but not always, means the buyers have "run out of steam". This tells...
noted
thanks
  • #2,687
  • Feb 28, 2018 12:19pm Feb 28, 2018 12:19pm
Quoting bistolis
{quote} thanks very valid observations. although the area you highlighted is the top of the tokyo range
Sorry I was looking at the same arrows as Strat, my apologies!
Private Msgs are turned off to weirdos, loafs and brain drainers
  • #2,688
  • Feb 28, 2018 12:24pm Feb 28, 2018 12:24pm
Quoting BeyondTheSea
{quote} Sorry I was looking at the same arrows as Strat, my apologies!
no problem
bigger picture helps more than just the candle that i happened to open my charts on
thanks for feedback
  • #2,689
  • Feb 28, 2018 12:49pm Feb 28, 2018 12:49pm
GBPAUD M5 Trend Trading

Quoting shad4u2
{quote} Thank You Sir for your Guidelines.I am trying my best to trade with PASR and since I found this thread I am no more Indicator and EA lover. still reading re reading and learning The PATH. As far as exit I exit because of Support which is there but my chart was un squeezed that time so it was not shown in my M5 chart. Which Emirate are you in? None ! I am from that city where you were in 1996/97 and met with Merchant banker.(Trading is ban here thats why I mentioned Emirate sorry. Here is my H1 chart which was marked at the time of trading.Please...
Thank You Sir for your Guidelines

No more ""Sir"", I am just an ordinary guy - "Strat" will do.

I am trying my best to trade with PASR and since I found this thread I am no more Indicator and EA lover

Good for you! I wonder how you will resist the temptation to go back to Indicator Land and Automated Junk.

still reading re reading and learning The PATH

Good. It may seem like it will take forever but I PROMISE it will be worth it.

As far as exit, I exit because of Support

Excellent.

Which Emirate are you in? None ! I am from that city where you were in 1996/97 and met with Merchant Wanker.(Trading is ban here thats why I mentioned Emirate sorry

Now I am confused! We were in Mumbai, India, when we met that Merchant Wanker (attached). There are others on here, BeeCee for example who is also in India. I have also come across other traders from India in my trading travels. There is Rahul Mohindar from India who used smoke and mirrors to convince traders to buy his RMO Oscillator System (just a fancy Ronald MacD with different inputs) for making BIG profits in the Indian Exchanges (NSE,BSE,MCX-SX). How can trading be banned in India?

Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Merchant Bankers.doc   31 KB | 692 downloads
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,690
  • Feb 28, 2018 12:57pm Feb 28, 2018 12:57pm
Quoting BeyondTheSea
{quote} Hi Bistolis "Would it be a good entry to go long after first hour of London closes? There are many traders who do not trade the opening hour of London and wait for PRICE to ""settle"" down. I can't help you with this as I have never traded London but hopefully others on here that do trade London will comment on this." I've highlighted two charts the 1st is 1 hour with the box where I see resistance. {image} This second chart is the 5 minute with the box highlighted from that specific 1 hour candle you mentioned. {image} You can now clearly...
My you ARE good! I could not have written this better myself
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,691
  • Feb 28, 2018 1:00pm Feb 28, 2018 1:00pm
Quoting bistolis
{quote} thanks very valid observations. although the area you highlighted is the top of the tokyo range
although the area you highlighted is the top of the tokyo range

so how would YOU use that information?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,692
  • Feb 28, 2018 1:10pm Feb 28, 2018 1:10pm
Quoting strat
{quote} although the area you highlighted is the top of the tokyo range so how would YOU use that information?
well I saw it as resistance. so I didnt do nothing after all. and went back to my "working" for a living for the day

I usually keep this range of the tokyo session in mind when looking for a trade after london opens

sometimes it is tight and I would wait for some breakout action. and sometimes it already produced a trend that I could jump in during london

thanks for all the feedback on this chart
  • #2,693
  • Feb 28, 2018 1:36pm Feb 28, 2018 1:36pm
GBPJPY

Quoting BeeCee
{quote} Hi Strat, Going forward will request feedback from everyone.. Your trend line is not drawn correctly. PASR always draws trend lines from the root through significant swings - Try again - What is a significant swing. I am understanding this as any swing low that breaks a previous LL and Any swing high that breaks previous HH. Is that right understanding. I have remade the trend line with that understanding. Please suggest. Please show me this ""last upper trend"" - Highlighted in yellow. when I look at the swings and the momentum through...
What is a significant swing. I am understanding this as any swing low that breaks a previous LL and Any swing high that breaks previous HH. Is that right understanding. I have remade the trend line with that understanding. Please suggest.

This tells me you do not UNDERSTAND swings so go back and READ, LEARN and UNDERSTAND all you can on swings. As far as trend lines, I have marked up your chart with the correct trend line (in blue) for trading. I have posted many charts identifying BOSS swings.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY_W1.jpg Size: 275 KB


Please show me this ""last upper trend"" - Highlighted in yellow. when I look at the swings and the momentum through the candles (last upper cycle). It looks for me that its not getting anywhere when I try to read the price.

When I read ""PRICE"", it, PRICE, is making HH and HLs!

Almost right. The last major swing low is at 146.92. Make sure you can SEE this CONFIRMATION on the Boss. - This time I see it. However is it mandatory condition for us to consider a swing low in a worker, the boss has to necessarily have a swing low. If not don't we consider is at a Swing low. How does it work. I understand a confirmed and an unconfirmed swing low within a timeframe. However this is different. Can you please explain.

You must not be reading other posts. I have posted several times that the Worker swings are CONTROLLED by the BOSS. There is the BOSS SWING and within that, are many Worker "swings".

Next, although much further on The Path than where you are now, consider adding the Strat Shadow - Honestly, I am scared to ask you because, you have ripped people apart whoever asked you that. I know 20 and 50 MAs work as strat shadows. However, I need to deep dive on the exact ways of SS working. I am yet to get there. If you don't mind you may share it with me.

I ""ripped"" them, as you say, because they were looking for short cuts. I have NO PATIENCE and WILL NOT WORK with those looking for short cuts. You, on the other hand are progressing systematically and logically on THE PATH which is why you are different to them. Forget the Strat Shadow UNTIL you UNDERSTAND swings - one bite at a time, young man!

Since you are able to do the 3 time frame analysis very well, we need to see your UNDERSTANDING of The Power of Time Frames so go the next step and try to identify trades. - I did identify a trade. A BEOB or a shooting star below 146.92 is when I will look to enter. is that a right approach.

That is not a trade in the NOW - that is wishful thinking IN THE FUTURE. What I meant was SEE a trade (on any pair) NOW at the MOVING HARD RIGHT EDGE and trade it on paper.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,694
  • Feb 28, 2018 2:01pm Feb 28, 2018 2:01pm
Hello everyone again,

It has been a tremendous month for me in terms of learning PASR and following The Path. I took no impatient trades (although I really wanted at one point, but then understood that it is my fear of missing out again, so I kept my emotions under control) this month, resulting in only couple of trades. I created my written trading plan and stated the trading rules there and I promised to myself that IF I want to succeed here, I need to treat trading much more seriously. I feel real progress from the psychological side of trading. I want to thank everyone on this thread for their insights and shared mistakes, especially you, Strat. My analysis and PASR skills may not be the most accurate now but I believe that I am improving. I understand that I am still miles away from complete understanding of PASR but I will not stop learning until I succeed.

Now that I finished sharing my experiences in the learning process, I want to share my view of NZD/USD pair this time.

BB: Sideways movement between 0.7300 and 0.6700 area for quite some time, this month is going to close bearish, showing that price reacted again at the 0.7300 resistance zone. Price has moved into SS (please correct if wrong as I'm trying to implement Strat Shadow more into my analysis).
B: Price is ranging and if this week's candle will close lower than WCC low, we will also see a confirmed swing high? Also, if Boss candle closes below WCC (which is also near 200 EMA dynamic support/resistance), I would look for PA to enter a trade.
W: Price showed a double top pattern and moved below 20 EMA into the SS almost reaching its bottom. Last time at this zone price closed as hammer, so I would be interested to watch this zone more carefully for PA setups.

I wanted to look at a pair that is ranging and see how different the analysis would be, so please tell me what you all see!

See you soon!
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  • #2,695
  • Feb 28, 2018 2:25pm Feb 28, 2018 2:25pm
Quoting strat
{quote} My you ARE good! I could not have written this better myself
Thanks to you Strat, it's sinking in
Private Msgs are turned off to weirdos, loafs and brain drainers
  • #2,696
  • Feb 28, 2018 3:02pm Feb 28, 2018 3:02pm
M5 PASR Trend Trading:


Just feel like posting my other trades for today.






Happy Trading,
Yomi.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Time always comes before price
  • #2,697
  • Feb 28, 2018 8:36pm Feb 28, 2018 8:36pm
NZDUSD

Quoting Svolacius
Hello everyone again, It has been a tremendous month for me in terms of learning PASR and following The Path. I took no impatient trades (although I really wanted at one point, but then understood that it is my fear of missing out again, so I kept my emotions under control) this month, resulting in only couple of trades. I created my written trading plan and stated the trading rules there and I promised to myself that IF I want to succeed here, I need to treat trading much more seriously. I feel real progress from the psychological side of trading....
I kept my emotions under control) this month, resulting in only couple of trades. I created my written trading plan and stated the trading rules there and I promised to myself that IF I want to succeed here, I need to treat trading much more seriously. I feel real progress from the psychological side of trading.

Excellent. If only more traders would follow your example.

BB: Price has moved into SS - but you don't have a Strat Shadow on your charts

This is not important on the Big Boss. What is the answer to the most important question of the Big Boss?

B: Price is ranging and if this week's candle will close lower than WCC low, we will also see a confirmed swing high? Also, if Boss candle closes below WCC (which is also near 200 EMA dynamic support/resistance), I would look for PA to enter a trade.

You have not correctly identified the Weekly Control Candle - try again.

Does PRICE on this pair react to the 200 ema?

W: Price showed a double top pattern and moved below 20 EMA into the SS almost reaching its bottom. Last time at this zone price closed as hammer, so I would be interested to watch this zone more carefully for PA setups.

moved below 20 EMA into the SS almost reaching its bottom

No. PRICE is testing the bottom of the Strat Shadow as support

So, how do we trade range bound pairs?

You need to add the Strat Shadow to your charts but a really good try.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,698
  • Feb 28, 2018 8:38pm Feb 28, 2018 8:38pm
M5 PASR Trend Trading

Quoting fxrabbi
M5 PASR Trend Trading: Just feel like posting my other trades for today. Happy Trading, Yomi. {image} {image}
You can feel and post as many trades as you like, Yomi - the more, the merrier!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #2,699
  • Feb 28, 2018 9:06pm Feb 28, 2018 9:06pm
Quoting strat
GBPJPY {quote} What is a significant swing. I am understanding this as any swing low that breaks a previous LL and Any swing high that breaks previous HH. Is that right understanding. I have remade the trend line with that understanding. Please suggest. This tells me you do not UNDERSTAND swings so go back and READ, LEARN and UNDERSTAND all you can on swings. As far as trend lines, I have marked up your chart with the correct trend line (in blue) for trading. I have posted many charts identifying BOSS swings. {image} Please show me this ""last upper...
Thanks, strat. Will learn swings better. Look for some trades and post it here.
  • #2,700
  • Mar 1, 2018 12:03am Mar 1, 2018 12:03am
Quoting strat
NZDUSD {quote} I kept my emotions under control) this month, resulting in only couple of trades. I created my written trading plan and stated the trading rules there and I promised to myself that IF I want to succeed here, I need to treat trading much more seriously. I feel real progress from the psychological side of trading. Excellent. If only more traders would follow your example. BB: Price has moved into SS - but you don't have a Strat Shadow on your charts This is not important on the Big Boss. What is the answer to the most important question...
Hi Strat, I am referring to your answer to Svolacius's weekly chart regarding WCC. I had since checking the explanation given in your thread again and the conclusion I have was to qualify as a WCC, a candle must:

1. Close above high or below low of the PREVIOUS candle and
2. The next candle(s) shouldn't close above high or below low of the that candle.

I have the same WCC in my own chart. I can not take the break out candle as a new WCC as the week has not closed. If there is anywhere I don't understand, please point out to me. I am still learning. Thank you.
Attached Image
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