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SAFE - KISS

  • #501
  • Feb 26, 2018 1:02am Feb 26, 2018 1:02am
Quoting Ralffe
Had a day with nothing to do so decided to play the AU & Gold retraces on the 15m charts. Gotta say this system brings back the joy into trading.
And now EU wants to join the retrace party on the 4H.
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #502
  • Edited 4:33am Feb 26, 2018 3:50am | Edited 4:33am
Good morning guys. Entered yesterday late night

I noticed that if we don't move the trendline when it's breaked, often it will be a supp/ress in the future

Edit: Closed +35 pips
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  • #503
  • Feb 26, 2018 5:28am Feb 26, 2018 5:28am
Waiting patiently to short EUR/NZD
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  • #504
  • Feb 26, 2018 5:47am Feb 26, 2018 5:47am
Quoting MrGreen95
Waiting patiently to short EUR/NZD {image} {image}
Looks like it's got a ways to go before it breaks that bottom trendline. Maybe, 2 days?.
  • #505
  • Feb 26, 2018 6:30am Feb 26, 2018 6:30am
Ralffe,
Would you consider doing the analysis of USDIndex Daily Chart for us?
The benefits would be great.
Roy
  • #506
  • Feb 26, 2018 7:54am Feb 26, 2018 7:54am
Quoting MrGreen95
Good morning guys. Entered yesterday late night I noticed that if we don't move the trendline when it's breaked, often it will be a supp/ress in the future Edit: Closed +35 pips {image} {image} {image} {image}

I did the right choice to exit and don't be greedy
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  • #507
  • Feb 26, 2018 9:55am Feb 26, 2018 9:55am
Quoting Ralffe
{quote} Each to his/her own. However in all cases using horizontal lines you will be late to the party & late to exit.
You are not right. Look in the PVSRA from cigarguy. If it will be so clear to trade with trendlines, why so many questions around this? Sorry trendline trading is horrible. My opinion. Hope you can clear this for user who want make use of trendlines.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #508
  • Feb 26, 2018 2:50pm Feb 26, 2018 2:50pm
Great thread Ralffe. Honestly probably the best I've seen in years. Really like your dynamic use of trendlines.

Cheers !
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #509
  • Feb 26, 2018 3:17pm Feb 26, 2018 3:17pm
Quoting MichaelSch
{quote} You are not right. Look in the PVSRA from cigarguy. If it will be so clear to trade with trendlines, why so many questions around this? Sorry trendline trading is horrible. My opinion. Hope you can clear this for user who want make use of trendlines.
That's probably possible but first you have to explain why you think trendline trading is horrible.

Expecting an arbitrary trendline to hold as support/resistance is horrible, but using trendlines to know when a trend has been broken is valuable.
  • #510
  • Feb 26, 2018 3:19pm Feb 26, 2018 3:19pm
Bitcoin got its first swing low to use as the 'official' fulcrum for this next leg up.
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  • #511
  • Feb 26, 2018 3:39pm Feb 26, 2018 3:39pm
Hi guys, keen to follow along with this method and learn the ropes. I have decided to go with 4HR charts as I like to be a little bit more active than waiting for a daily candle. I realise this will mean more screen time but that's fine. What do you think of my analysis of the CADJPY4HR?
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  • #512
  • Feb 26, 2018 3:42pm Feb 26, 2018 3:42pm
Quoting diamonddbw
I started to mark up some charts with questions, but realized it would be a bit difficult to follow with several charts, so I made a 5 1/2 min video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWBgmwbqTjA
Hi Darryl, good to see you.

To answer the first question regarding the placement of the D1 line, I think I can help. The key is to use the most recent swing high or low as the 'fulcrum' (the point where the moving end of the line will rest) even if it's very slight. See this post for my definition of swing high and low. Then, if the line is too steep and it would be in your example, move the 'hinged' part of the line (the (usually) unmoving part) to a point that is further back in history so that the resulting line is shallower. Doing this it shouldn't ever be necessary to use H4 to find a fulcrum point. Of course you'll use H4 to make the counter-trend trades but I have my own way of handling those.

Here is the first place where you can put your line just after the prior trend break.
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Here is the last position where your line would end up before being 'broken' by the new trend for good.
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  • #513
  • Feb 26, 2018 5:26pm Feb 26, 2018 5:26pm
Quoting earlroy63
Ralffe, Would you consider doing the analysis of USDIndex Daily Chart for us? The benefits would be great. Roy
I guess you mean the DXY.
The DXY is caught in a little triangle going sideways as are most pairs, waiting for something to kick start them.
Could be today with the USD Core Durable Goods Orders.
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Conventional trading is for losers
  • #514
  • Feb 26, 2018 5:29pm Feb 26, 2018 5:29pm
Quoting MichaelSch
{quote} You are not right. Look in the PVSRA from cigarguy. If it will be so clear to trade with trendlines, why so many questions around this? Sorry trendline trading is horrible. My opinion. Hope you can clear this for user who want make use of trendlines.
Some people don't get it because they just don't want to get it. Some are also confusing the lines with traditional trend lines which they are not. They are as much support & resistance lines as trend lines.
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #515
  • Feb 26, 2018 5:39pm Feb 26, 2018 5:39pm
Quoting sa12uk
Hi guys, keen to follow along with this method and learn the ropes. I have decided to go with 4HR charts as I like to be a little bit more active than waiting for a daily candle. I realise this will mean more screen time but that's fine. What do you think of my analysis of the CADJPY4HR? {image}
Looks good
May be due for a retrace which could take it back to 87 so be careful.
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #516
  • Feb 26, 2018 5:41pm Feb 26, 2018 5:41pm
Ralffe,
Thanks for the USD Index chart. I now see the challenges with USD pairs.

Roy
  • #517
  • Feb 26, 2018 5:45pm Feb 26, 2018 5:45pm
Quoting sa12uk
Hi guys, keen to follow along with this method and learn the ropes. I have decided to go with 4HR charts as I like to be a little bit more active than waiting for a daily candle. I realise this will mean more screen time but that's fine. What do you think of my analysis of the CADJPY4HR? {image}
Doesn't matter what time frame you use, just remember the lower the time frame the more the chance of getting caught on a retrace. I had a great time on the 15m charts yesterday but it was very intensive compared to the 4H & Daily.
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #518
  • Feb 26, 2018 6:26pm Feb 26, 2018 6:26pm
Mistake made last night , came back to pc to see pa crossed TL >A closed BEFORE I thought to REDRAW TL >B ...... must pay more attention or not be greedy and set TP a little thought would have seen me still in that trade instead of small LOSS
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  • #519
  • Feb 26, 2018 6:46pm Feb 26, 2018 6:46pm
Hi Raiffe and all.

AUD/USD 15M. Looking to go long if i get a candle to close above upper line without line thru it. Do my lines look right? Thanks and good trading.

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Actually, i wonder if this is a better placement of upper line? In which case i would've been long earlier.

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'Fail to plan, plan to fail'
  • #520
  • Feb 26, 2018 7:07pm Feb 26, 2018 7:07pm
Quoting clemmo17
{quote} Hi Darryl, good to see you. To answer the first question regarding the placement of the D1 line, I think I can help. The key is to use the most recent swing high or low as the 'fulcrum' (the point where the moving end of the line will rest) even if it's very slight. See this post for my definition of swing high and low. Then, if the line is too steep and it would be in your example, move the 'hinged' part of the line (the (usually) unmoving part) to a point...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Thanks Clemmo. I get what your doing, and it could also work.

Looking back on many charts Ralffe has posted, including his videos, many of the TL start points choose a previous Lower High, Higher Low, in order to flatten out the initial TL, so as to keep an early retrace from getting you out of the trade too early. That is what I'm getting out of this process, early on. Perhaps I'm in error, however, I'm going to keep in this direction for now.
Cheers...
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