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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #73,681
  • Feb 25, 2018 7:25pm Feb 25, 2018 7:25pm
Quoting SunTrader
I was wrong. The Euro even had no real reaction.
You got that right.
  • #73,682
  • Feb 25, 2018 7:44pm Feb 25, 2018 7:44pm
So im of the opinion 106.6 is a support to break. It it does break it should continue south to 106.3 atleast with the next target 106.0. Anyone else get this vibe or am I talking shit?
  • #73,683
  • Feb 25, 2018 7:47pm Feb 25, 2018 7:47pm
This beast is profitable tonight along with its cousins
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #73,684
  • Feb 25, 2018 8:05pm Feb 25, 2018 8:05pm
Quoting MrPresident
This beast is profitable tonight along with its cousins
my position is now BE at 147.10 . I will just re-enter higher if it stops out, otherwise let it run . No risk and I can do other tasks, opportunity cost.
  • #73,685
  • Feb 25, 2018 9:21pm Feb 25, 2018 9:21pm
The risk remains on the downside, immediate support can be found around 106.50, break below would open up to the downside.
  • #73,686
  • Feb 25, 2018 9:58pm Feb 25, 2018 9:58pm
Too weak to break 106.5, could stage a rebound higher to retest 107.3

looks like the market is preparing for some hawkish fed speaker comments
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #73,687
  • Feb 25, 2018 10:51pm Feb 25, 2018 10:51pm
Not too far from 106.5, yet it seems to lack the strength to break it. Bears are taking a nap, bulls are still too sleepy to go on a run.
  • #73,688
  • Feb 26, 2018 12:45am Feb 26, 2018 12:45am
Went long @ 106.50 SL 106.30
I see it unwilling to continue its slide . . .

  • #73,689
  • Feb 26, 2018 1:02am Feb 26, 2018 1:02am
Quoting F.g
Went long @ 106.50 SL 106.30 I see it unwilling to continue its slide . . .
needs more volume, but 106 will come.
  • #73,690
  • Feb 26, 2018 1:15am Feb 26, 2018 1:15am
Minor support at 106.430
  • #73,691
  • Feb 26, 2018 1:32am Feb 26, 2018 1:32am
Quoting Seshwaan
Minor support at 106.430

Broke it, can see if going below 106 potentially
  • #73,692
  • Feb 26, 2018 7:16am Feb 26, 2018 7:16am
Saw an article last week quoting head of Japan's largest insurance co. saying dollar yen "around" 105.00
is a good neutral rate and would consider buying. If this is to be believed, it is a large institutional investor tipping his hand, (or bluffing?)
I believe the article was either in fxstreet or zerohedge, but would have to look it up. Otherwise, my daily and weekly charts below, from close on friday.
Good luck,
regards
goma
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  • #73,693
  • Feb 26, 2018 7:18am Feb 26, 2018 7:18am
doesn't look like it will be bearish today but you never know

E/J and G/J pretty much retraced the fall from earlier today

so, can we see U/J back to test 107.3?
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #73,694
  • Feb 26, 2018 7:41am Feb 26, 2018 7:41am
S&P up during pre market, should give support to USD/JPY

look to see what happens after 9:30am EST
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #73,695
  • Feb 26, 2018 7:41am Feb 26, 2018 7:41am
Quoting nealpek
Could be just a short term rotation into the early 107.25 area to increase short position, that would make sense. Trading has a lot in common with the sport of curling. The "clean and sweep" can be seen with each prior poke down before reversing position. Cost benefit analysis would show the cost of poking it down will be considerably less expensive than the benefit of grabbing all the orders sitting around the quarter. If it indeed has a bias south, it must first poke up to grab the easy money and load up on the pile sitting above before resuming...

Great analysis
  • #73,696
  • Feb 26, 2018 7:42am Feb 26, 2018 7:42am
I am sitting out for now
  • #73,697
  • Feb 26, 2018 7:58am Feb 26, 2018 7:58am
Quoting Seshwaan
I am sitting out for now
good idea, best to wait

better not be stuck in a draw-down this week before the Italian elections on March 4th
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #73,698
  • Feb 26, 2018 8:33am Feb 26, 2018 8:33am
moving up, market is happy today
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #73,699
  • Feb 26, 2018 8:55am Feb 26, 2018 8:55am
Quoting nealpek
Short term trading isn't about candle colors, their size or their shape. Couldn't give 2 sh*ts if the there is a harami, engulfing, pinbar, evening star,etc. These are simply the appearance of trading any fixed time period. What matters to me is where the areas are that short term traders can be relieved or scared out of their positions! These become targets, and are often the areas to open up new positions in the other direction. The action around these areas determine if it will continue or reverse! Isn't trading fun,lol!!!
Neal, I just want to post the PA I saw on the UJ that caused me to go long. I am sure we trade very differently, but this is what I do.

I see the gray area as supply. A strong drop base drop and fresh as well. Price moves strongly to it and the selling off the supply is very weak. Then the supply is broke and the selling is weak again. Time to go long and shoot for the 107 area above with a 3:1 R:R. This may not work every time, but with 3:1 R:R, it only has to work over 33% of the time to work and I have found it to work much more often than that.

I am not sure if this is some what similar to what you do or not.
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  • #73,700
  • Feb 26, 2018 9:03am Feb 26, 2018 9:03am
Hi mate! You didn't indicate the time frame you used for this illustration. Imho, knowing the time frame will be an issue for the type of trader one is and the trading style being adopted. That will be a factor in deciding whether or not the trader would take the bait you were trying to illustrate.

KP

Quoting nealpek
look at the "eye candy" or cheese enticing traders to go short just below the pile! And where are they going to put their stops? Magical isn't it? {image}
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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