Fundamental/News Thread

Australian participation rate increased in December and approaching 1978-2017 highs. This signals optimism to join the workforce but results in a small increase in official unemployment rate.

This is the major issue: no central banks wants to be hawkish right now.

Cheetah- I really should have done more research on it
I know that Adam on Forex live was expecting this type of move - but the banks seemed to think differently.
It was a easy move to fade though

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/australi...act-without-us

The market doesn't seem to like this for USD.

Trump seems to be moving towards relying on price competitiveness to drive up production and exports.
I think the dollar is going to continue to get trashed in the years ahead, moving towards the former china model of cheap exports on the back of a debased currency.
There will be ups and downs of course, but a general trend is developing with his increasingly isolationist policy and rhetoric.

All the while, China is entering the world stage....

Interesting article of supply cuts expiration in DEC this year.
Continued "co-operation" between suppliers after this date.
Some charts to consider.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/21/saud...yond-2018.html

50 fib important PA area next main bearish target IMO

Unbelievable, I had to close my Pepperstone forex account all because I reside in Canada. Pain in the butt. I'm thinking of moving to Puerto Rico. Less stupid legislation in places like that.

I thought the regulation against trading fx is for some provinces and not for the whole of the country, why not consider changing province to say Ontario?

Cheers

Pepperstone just pulled out of the whole country as far as I understand.

Where is everyone?

Hi

Sorry guys - have been busy.

jchiogna did you get sorted out with a Canadian broker in the end.
Obviously you could trade futures if there is no joy on that side of things. I have an account with Infinity futures
They are pretty good

Trades this week;

Got a decent trade on the pound with Barnier in fine form yesterday

And also got a couple of trades this morning (45 pips) the entry could have been better - but I had some limit orders that did not get filled. No excuses really.

There were loads of things I missed - but mrs was hassling me

This afternoon price was only going to shoot up - after the poor US figures but there is bearish sentiment in the background which helped it fade all over the place.

However the fact that the pound could not break yesterday's low is always a bullish sign. Perhaps there were just gearing up for the US figures

Hope that everyone is well.

Im kinda bearish on the gbpusd actually. As UK is in a political mess which consequences has risks to their economy. BoE is also in a bit of a limbo with high inflation caused by the weaker pound. Which IMO looks overbought when it reached 1.4. Thats nearly pre brexit levels! In the long run, there is almost no way I can see UK outperform other countries as long as the financial risks of brexit remains.

US on the other hand is looking rather solid in their economy and with the fed on a tightening path, i wondered why did the USD sell off so much previously? They were basically focusing on the fiscal and political side of things while ignoring the monetary side.

The divergence between the two countries made me confident that gbpusd will decline in the mid-long term.

I was a bullish on the pound during the London session - after the sell off (it did not re-test yesterdays lows) going into the NY session.
But as I said the background was bearish.
Brexit is the main mover for the pound. This seems now to be picked up by US traders. They gave it a bit of a kicking yesterday.
Trump's announcement on tariffs really compounded things today.
UJ off and bonds up.

The dollar- I don't know. Consumer confidence was a plus - but we have had some poor figures today. Overall figures are getting there though. Inflation on the move up - Fed members talking about 4 hikes this year and then Trump's announcement today really did it - Dow took the brunt of it -risk off order of the day.

Tariffs, election, interest rates and more!

March promises to be a month choke full of events! All of which is likely to have a fundamental impact of currencies!
What are your views for march? Do share!

synicz will drop you a message

ok - here are my thoughts.

Pound

The BOE will hike this month (this is fully priced in)- so after the initial spike to liquidity– I will be selling it.

Also anything from Junker/Barnier/May will affect the pound- keep an eye out for any key speeches that are likely.
I would look to sell any rallies going into a speech from Barnier

Euro

Italian elections- I don’t think anything will really happen to the Euro
ECB – still dovish
CPI – on the slide
Economic figures moderating
Affected by Trump’s policies

UJ is oversold- although put call ratio is still bearish
In the short term we might see a bounce back in this pair- only thing that is putting me off slightly is the put call ratio- lets check it on Monday
Draghi was talking about how great the Euro is last month...might need to go through what he said again
He has to be dovish based on the above at the meeting this week.
So I will be watching getting ready to press sell

USD

Better economic figures
However, geopolitical events (eg- tariffs) will override
Also I did see that the estimates on NFP show no change from last month- this could have some bearish sentiment on the dollar
Fed members talking about 4 hikes etc…
Also Powell seemed to be more dovish in his recent testimony
Looking ahead -the things I would look out for are more protectionist policies coming from Trump- this is a serious market mover.

At present I am a bit more of a seller at the moment.

Perhaps long EURUSD on Monday- but will have a look at the p/c ratio.

I much much prefer to trade major news stories-as they are released…They are a lot easier to trade and you always make pips (a lot).
Sometimes price will revisit areas of liquidity- and then fill some orders and then carry on.

Cheers

Fader123

Nice! I have similar views regarding the pound.
Although I must say I hold contrasting views on the other currencies. Nontheless, my play is on the longer-term and might not be applicable in the shorter run price movements.

Hi

I think the Euro should be bearish in the run uo to the meeting on Thursday.

But Draghi what an enigma

The issue with the buck is what comes from DT tweets and is Powell out if his depth

At least I know where I stand with the BOE