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Fundamental/News Thread

Yeah. UK is in such a mess now that im surprised that the pound actually strengthened earlier this year! It should be way lower!
I look for value wherever it can be found
Trump talking about a trade tarrifs with the Euro car makers.

Not good for the Euro.
Merkel now has a government that us the only bit if good news.
Surely UJ will be under more pressure. Just need to work out from where
UJ in now selling off for Euro session. Lots of selling accumulation over the Asian session
I love these days
That is the power of the news
Would have preferred more negative sentiment on p/c though.
View of Cable today.
Sorry on phone so no diagrams.

Pull back before London open from Asian session.
Cable rallies to R1 from 8am GMT.
Then a dip and a restest into R1 for the NY open.
Immediatley price dumps to London open.
50% pullback to fair value. Some fairly aggressive sellers showing their hand.
Then a drop to 1.39. (ish). Think S2 was here, plus it was twice the length of the first drop.
Waited for stopping vol, absorption and for aggressive buyers to show up before going long.
Missed the morning session.
Have a good weekend all
I ended up going with another Australian broker for now. I don't know how long this will last. Fader, where are you getting the put call ratio info and how do you use it?

thanks
jchiogna1- send me a message
Trumpy starring little war.

Is it good or bad for $$$. Will see Monday
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
gold up oil up king dollar down?
Quoting Not-KPMG
Trumpy starring little war. Is it good or bad for $$$. Will see Monday
Be careful with the usd. I noticed recently that it has not really acted in line with its supposed safe haven status. Prolly a play on other safe havens will be better? Like gold and Yen.
I look for value wherever it can be found
Do people think UJ will break above the 109.00?
To Pipccess and Beyond
I've been combining some technicals with the fundamentals and have gotten some very good results. I'll be posting some of these trades this week. i've been pretty down about losing my Australian broker due to Canadian regulation. This narrows my choices and soon even newer regulation will prevent me from using foreign brokers entirely. This would lead me with only Canadian brokers who have very few competitors. THANK YOU CANADA FOR BEING SUCH A &*%* NANNY STATE. Sorry for the crude expletives but I'm fed up with government stupidity.
Took a few trades today on EURCAD.
Reason - first one not great
Main reason was due to fundamentals/sentiment that I have previously talked about on here - this info I leaned from doing the Jarratt Davis course.
Also these were limit orders - as I had to go out.
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Quoting Fader123
Took a few trades today on EURCAD. Reason - first one not great Main reason was due to fundamentals/sentiment that I have previously talked about on here - this info I leaned from doing the Jarratt Davis course. Also these were limit orders - as I had to go out. {image}
Nice to see you posting here again. It has been quite awhile.
I look for value wherever it can be found
The total amount of Treasury notes (ranging from 1yr to 30yr) issuance is about $5bn per month but the amount of debt cancellation has reached $30bn per month in this current quarter.

US Treasury bonds only issue to US banks, which then lend to the world. So the Bond yield is no more than just a statement. The borrowing cost, the US bank lend to the world is more important. Keep an eye on deposit rate, it's going to shoot up soon, by Jan 2019 latest.

Uncle Sam is withdrawing liquidity, casino chips, faster and at a faster rate as each quarter past.

The rate hike is as good as confirmed. But it's still way below 3%
Fed cannot raise rate to kill the world economy, therefore it is always behind the curve, slower than the market response.
The key index is the monthly withdrawal of the casino chips from the world as the debt repayments kicks in since Q4 of 2017. The rest are just decoy and nothing more than sing song play ping pong.

Exactly, before it reached 3%, deposit rates should be going towards the moon, as liquidity dries up.
Quoting siewhf
The total amount of Treasury notes (ranging from 1yr to 30yr) issuance is about $5bn per month but the amount of debt cancellation has reached $30bn per month in this current quarter. US Treasury bonds only issue to US banks, which then lend to the world. So the Bond yield is no more than just a statement. The borrowing cost, the US bank lend to the world is more important. Keep an eye on deposit rate, it's going to shoot up soon, by Jan 2019 latest. Uncle Sam is withdrawing liquidity, casino chips, faster and at a faster rate as each quarter past....
Tyvm for your advice/wisdom! Anything else that you can recommend would be greatly appreciated. I am trying to learn more about how to use FA in my trading.
Quoting siewhf
The total amount of Treasury notes (ranging from 1yr to 30yr) issuance is about $5bn per month but the amount of debt cancellation has reached $30bn per month in this current quarter. US Treasury bonds only issue to US banks, which then lend to the world. So the Bond yield is no more than just a statement. The borrowing cost, the US bank lend to the world is more important. Keep an eye on deposit rate, it's going to shoot up soon, by Jan 2019 latest. Uncle Sam is withdrawing liquidity, casino chips, faster and at a faster rate as each quarter past....
While it is true that the issue if govt debt is a worrying one. I do not think that the unwinding would occur is a short span of time. If anything, i suspect the impact would be felt over a long period of time (E.g years)

Furthermore, it is a highly debated topic whether debt to GDP is a predictor of a recession. Look at Japan. With a debt to gdp over 200%. Yet the econony is recovering well.

Id think a more accurate ratio could be debt owned my foreign countries. That would logically (but not neccessarily) be a predictor of future exchange rate.
I look for value wherever it can be found
Fed cannot raise rate until the economy collapse, they can't take the blame. They work behind the scene to dry up liquidity, which in turn causes bank to provide incentives to draw in depositor's money. The rush for depositor's money will push up interest rates. So, fed will be seen doing the catch up.

----

The pace of the QE Unwind has accelerated sharply in April, as planned. And it’s unlikely that the Fed will try to prop up the stock market by pausing its QE Unwind machine, even during a sell off. The Fed is targeting “elevated” asset prices, and sell-offs are part of the deal..

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/05/03/fe...tes-sharply-2/

In April, the scheduled maximum pace was $30 billion (up from $20 billion in January, February, and March).

But the pace accelerates every quarter until it reaches up to $50 billion a month in Q4 this year. This would trim the balance sheet by up to $420 billion this year, and by up to $600 billion in 2019 and every year going forward.
From a fundamental perspective only here are my initial views on the UK interest rate decision;

The ONS said that bad weather did not really have much of an effect on GDP.

Also the BOE will refer to their agents report

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/people/agents

Latest report is here

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agen...y/2018/2018-q1

Carney does not surprise the markets with his speeches when the BOE have an interest rate decision to make.

The latest one was well known in advance.

He referred to other months in his latest speech if I recall

Looking at the figures

GDP missed and CPI is on the slide

Personally. I think there is very little chance of the BOE hiking next week

Even Saunders seemed.to back away and was talking about gradual increases.

The 2-0-7 forecast seems a bit strong. Think it's a sell
But will need to go through recent speeches of the two hawks at the BOE to confirm
Quoting Fader123
From a fundamental perspective only here are my initial views on the UK interest rate decision; The ONS said that bad weather did not really have much of an effect on GDP. Also the BOE will refer to their agents report https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/people/agents Latest report is here https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agen...y/2018/2018-q1 Carney does not surprise the markets with his speeches when the BOE have an interest rate decision to make. The latest one was well known in advance. He referred to other months...
So anything short of a rate hike OR an added voice to Saunders' and McCafferty's will not be enough to convince the market to resume GBP buying, right?

They will definitely hold. However, don't you think we may see a hawkish hold?
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} So anything short of a rate hike OR an added voice to Saunders' and McCafferty's will not be enough to convince the market to resume GBP buying, right? They will definitely hold. However, don't you think we may see a hawkish hold?
IMO, a hawkish stance is likely from BoE. But not for the reason most think.

What ive noticed looking through the economic data is that UKs high inflation was a product of their sudden currency devaluation. Which puts them in a rather unique situation of high inflation but lowering purchasing power growth and productivity growth.
BoE seems to be talking up the pound as a strategy to combat this problem. Notice past BoE meetings? How they all seem to have hawkish hints to them? From the 7-2 votes to Carney's hawkish tone. All of this is an effort to convince the market to strengthen the pound. Which may halt the situation they are in.

But I am calling their bluff. Although Im unsure if the markets at large has noticed this. Thus, my opinion is that BoE will play another hawkish game. But the likely reaction is unclear. If the market catches on to their game, we might probably see the pound drop further. If the markets believe their words/actions, then we may see sterling strength.
Im hoping for the former thou but the latter may provide us with a value trade (If you believe in value investing concepts that is)
I look for value wherever it can be found
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