Fundamental/News Thread

Here is a screen shot of a miss on expected back in April- you could get in on the pullback

Plus trading into the event- where the estimate was high .5% m/m which was higher than the previous month,

That happened in May

On the morning of December 14th, 2017, I made a long trade on the Euro-US dollar. It was based simply on a some of the comments made by Draghi during the ECB comments session. He noted that there would be a significant improvement in the growth outlook in the Eurozone. At that point, I realized that it was a go for a long on the euro.

I didn't want to take much of a chance with this trade because it didn’t seem it would carry through much further. This was because of possible other contradictory comments that were forthcoming, and I was right. I got out at a previous pivot resistance, R1. It was just in time, allowing for only a few pips, a total of about 10 as you'll see in the video.

The trade quickly reversed after my exit. There didn't seem much to trade in in the subsequent days. However, there are some possibilities near the end of this present week.

As always, I'll keep you posted on that. Have a good day.

what about the Poland & Hungary?
This case wasn't in the many headline of news site..

This has been simmering for a while
Not sure if this will go anywhere.
The EU can't really do anything.

Current view on the UJ

Will need to do a review of the dollar- still in holiday mode.

Update on UJ
Recent prints over the past week has been poor- there were two dissenters at the last rate hike - one of the warning about the potential for the US to slide into recession.
Price has pulled back to major support.
Sentiment is a bit poor at the moment.
But lets see what the NFP forecasts are for next week - if they are higher than previous we might start to see some strength appear on UJ- as traders start to switch their attention to this release.
Trump on twitter won't help


Hope that everyone has a great New Year

Happy New Year!

Over the last few days, I have been reading the 2017 Year in Review articles on BabyPips for each currency. Good stuff. Here is a link to the first article in the series:
https://www.babypips.com/news/no-love-kiwi-2017

Happy new year everyone.

Can some please help me understand.

I've been looking through the news and trying to get my head around what's going on; particularly with the USD. So far I've come up with the following:
- Dollar has been weakening since about 3/4th week in Decemeber. It's weakness started with commodity based currencies but now it's also seen on GBP and USD.
- The dollar index is at a level which it was last at in May last year, which provided good support for the USD.
- Overall we're bullish on the dollar; 3 rate hikes this year.

My question is what is going to happen on Friday
1. If the NFP just meets expectation does the dollar continue to fall even lower?

Cheers

Happy New Year Cheetah

Will check the link out

[quote=Mdm92;10634546]Happy new year everyone. Can some please help me understand. I've been looking through the news and trying to get my head around what's going on; particularly with the USD. So far I've come up with the following: -

A couple of points below;

Overall we're bullish on the dollar; 3 rate hikes this year.

- These are priced in. Misses on core CPI, wages, plus recent prints last week were not good hence weakness in the buck

My question is what is going to happen on Friday 1. If the NFP just meets expectation does the dollar continue to fall even lower?

- If it matches what has changed - nothing really. The dollar will probably get another kicking for good measure. Sentiment poor at the moment.

But i thought the tone of the Fed statement seemed a bit upbeat - but not on inflation. FOMC minutes later on today

Also I did note that the banks are bearish on the greenback

Anyway - Happy New Year

It is very interesting reading all your views about fundamentals. Truely does provide me with unique insights!
I would like to input my views on USDs weakness. Overall, I feel that USD is starting to become oversold. Heres why:

1. It does seem that markets have indeed priced in 3 rate hikes this year. Thus the risk is actually to the downside, if there are suggestions or possibility of missing any rate hike, it could be possible that USD will sell off. On the flip side, the only way for USD to turn bullish again is if there is a larger hike (E.g 50 basis point instead of 25).

2. One possible reason that markets are skeptical and/or not impressed by 3 rate hikes this year is the inflation problem. There could be a risk that low inflation forces the fed to stop increasing interest rates. It looks to me that the markets are currently discounting that fact.

3. Riding on point No. 2, the issue with US is not unemployment rate, but inflation. US unemployment is at its lowest in 16 years. Yet core inflation has strangely remain stubbornly below the 2% target after the first quarter of 2017. The worry here is that more employment without an accompanying increase in wages does not lead to increase in inflation. It is based on this concept that I feel that NFP will have a negligible long term impact on the USD even if it improves. Short term wise, Im pretty sure that there will definitely be spikes to either side.

4. There have been a flow of investment capital towards emerging and asian markets as they have been identified as the next potential growth. My take is that people are converting their US dollars to these currencies to buy emerging markets fixed income and equities. This hypothsis is supported if you look at USD against most asian currencies (THB, MYR, INR, KRW) for the past year. Professionals are expecting the trend to continue in 2018 so there might be more players jumping on the bandwagon.


My view is that the USD is currently oversold relative to what fundamentals dictates. And that the tail risk now lies on the upside for the USD. With positive USD news as potential catalyst to reverse the downtrend.

Excellent insight. I would add that I have noticed inflation here (us). I was just thinking about it the other day while out shopping. I expect the inflation numbers to pick up soon. I've seen it at ground level, the numbered should reflect that soon...

I would not call them unique insights. The banks are broadly negative on the dollar.
There could be a squeeze and FOMC minutes may shed some more positive light
Let see anyway.
At the moment I need to see some strong figures returning.
Perhaps in time this will be generated with the benefits of the tax reform coming through
thanks for your posts chaps

I traded USDJPY at the USD news release (ADP Non-Farm Employment Change). when the news kicked in, my order wasn't filled at the price which I had set. I have no idea why. kindly watch and assist in interpreting what happened. video is in the link.

http://https://www.youtube.com/watch...MsF9ev-M&t=69s

Spread...lol

Spread widened when news was released. It happened (and gap) with my broker as well, but not that much even close like in your case.

Thanks @zosoforever, but is there anyway to beat a widening spread during high volatility?

Low Volatility for the EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y (5 Jan 2018) - EURJPY

You can use better broker and improve the spread, but during the news time spreads are everywhere my much wider. You should learn how to deal with this. The best is to not trade news and learn how to trade fundamentals which is this thread about. Also we shouldn't be discussing spreads in this thread.

You can set your program or right a script to only take trade at a maximum spread. I'm on one of these supposed ECN accounts with ICMarkets with variable spread. I'm using an EA to take my trades, but it has an option to take trades with spread no bigger than 0.0 so It waits for the craziness to settle down before taking a trade. Not sure how you would do that with a stop though, but might be worth looking into.