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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #73,381
  • Feb 18, 2018 7:56am Feb 18, 2018 7:56am
Quoting Starcraftmaz
Looks like a bearish exhaustion candle on daily. Does anyone expect a bounce here?
yep, unless there is war with north korea
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #73,382
  • Feb 18, 2018 11:44am Feb 18, 2018 11:44am
***ALERT***

-POSSIBLE BOTTOM IN PLACE; UPWARD MOVE
-66.66% RETRACEMENT
-P/O DIVERGENCE
-OVERSOLD
-HAMMER
-END OF 5 IMPULSIVE WAVES

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  • #73,383
  • Feb 18, 2018 11:52am Feb 18, 2018 11:52am
Quoting Starcraftmaz
Looks like a bearish exhaustion candle on daily. Does anyone expect a bounce here?
I believe many people have been expecting a bounce for UJ for a long long long long time..
  • #73,384
  • Feb 18, 2018 12:10pm Feb 18, 2018 12:10pm
Quoting nealpek
ez0770, " I guess you can say that an asset/currency is overbought/oversold when it shoots out of an equilibrium level (range) without any real change in the fundamental picture. " As each trader embarks on his "journey" into the forex market with nothing more than youtube videos for guidance, it is easy to recognize why so many traders have difficulty achieving the level of success they hope for. When I trade, I'm not "guessing" whether anything is over bought or sold, and certainly do not hold the belief that it must be so without any change in...
From my personal experience there is no one "right" way to look at trading as I believe you might be suggesting. For example you say overbought/oversold are useless concept, yet the way I defined oversold in my previous post is within a specif framework of the macroeconomic fundamental picture that, whether you believe it or not, does count and influences the investment decisions of many investors and traders and thus can have a concrete impact on price action. Also, I can assure you there are traders out there trading succesfully with indicators and this comes from someone who does not have any on his screens by the way....utlimately I can go long UJ tomorrow and make money, just like you can make money on the same day by going short, it's how you manage the trade itself and its risk that makes a difference, there's no ultimate "truth" in the way you or I see the market, in a way every trade you put on is a guess, unless you have access to privileged information...this is of course also just my opinion, based on many years of market experience and working together with very succesful professionals in the business...I'd be interested in finding out more about the key reference points that you are referring to though, if you care to expand on that concept?
  • #73,385
  • Feb 18, 2018 1:41pm Feb 18, 2018 1:41pm
Sorry people, I go through "spurts of disgust" once in a while and hope to get even 1 trader to go against the standard conventions, think outside the usual box of "conformity", and try to look at the markets from a slightly different angle! I don't wish to fight with nor insult anyones methods, or way of thinking about the markets.
Please take anything I've said above with a "grain of salt", and if it helps you in your trading endeavors, I'm glad, and if it doesn't, that's equally fine too!
  • #73,386
  • Feb 18, 2018 1:52pm Feb 18, 2018 1:52pm
I am liking the discussion that is taking place prior to the opening of the market and would like to take this opportunity to have my strategy plan for the week critiqued.

So here is a COT chart I have analysed and created:

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This is showing me:

  1. The USD is still being oversold and there has been little change in volume/open interest (orange bars) to change the momentum in selling
  2. Although there is technically more sellers than buyers there has been a great momentum for buying the Yen


So in conclusion based on my COT report, I expect the UJ to maintain its momentum and keep bearish (the reason why I am keeping bearish and staying with the momentum is because as previously mentioned in one of the replies not too long ago you can not predict when the trend is going to turn so it is best, I find to stay with the trend .

Now here is a picture of my chart

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  1. The pink lines are my key support and resistance
  2. The brown lines are trend lines


I expect there to be a retracement to a certain degree and for the bearish trend to continue over the week

To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #73,387
  • Feb 18, 2018 2:00pm Feb 18, 2018 2:00pm
USDJPY Hammer cannot work now. It was formed at the dip bottom of bears. Just my take
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -66.1%
  • #73,388
  • Feb 18, 2018 2:16pm Feb 18, 2018 2:16pm
Quoting 9jatrader
USDJPY Hammer cannot work now. It was formed at the dip bottom of bears. Just my take
Here was my first mistake on the pair. Though it was formed on/around support, the red marked Hammer. Bollinger upper and lower were to separated apart. And so I lost in impatience.
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Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -66.1%
  • #73,389
  • Feb 18, 2018 2:27pm Feb 18, 2018 2:27pm
Quoting nealpek
forex, your analysis is as valid and astute as any other traders can be. The fact that you are looking at potential price moves above and below price and marking off rough levels is excellent. I too am marking off possible levels to start the week, but surely can't venture a guess as to where price will be on Wednesday! Every traders charts and data are the same. As the market opens and starts the week, the only thing I can do is watch price, see what it is doing, and make trading decisions as price moves. The markets are totally dynamic, and constantly...
Possibly Wednesday would be a day for brokers- trigger sl of both the bulls and bears before market returns to normal direction- ranging
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -66.1%
  • #73,390
  • Feb 18, 2018 2:32pm Feb 18, 2018 2:32pm
Doesn't the sl trigger happen on Tuesday's?
  • #73,391
  • Feb 18, 2018 2:34pm Feb 18, 2018 2:34pm
Quoting nealpek
Doesn't the sl trigger happen on Tuesday's?
Wednesday is FOMC meeting. That's the reason I said so
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -66.1%
  • #73,392
  • Feb 18, 2018 2:39pm Feb 18, 2018 2:39pm
Just sharing what I see (UJ H4)
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Self discipline It is a practice
  • #73,393
  • Feb 18, 2018 2:42pm Feb 18, 2018 2:42pm
Thanks for pointing that out 9, as I didn't check the calendar. Fomc is one of my favorites! It's a great determinant of where price wants to go, as it gives the big boys the necessary liquidity in a short amount of time to pile up before the next pending move!! With this in mind, let's see which direction price is nudged towards before the announcement....
  • #73,394
  • Feb 18, 2018 2:43pm Feb 18, 2018 2:43pm
Here was a similar setup on AUDJPY- strong Pin Bar. Bollinger upper and lower bands are too far. They don't work. Anyway experience will teach.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -66.1%
  • #73,395
  • Feb 18, 2018 2:44pm Feb 18, 2018 2:44pm
Quoting 9jatrader
Here was a similar setup on AUDJPY- strong Pin Bar. Bollinger upper and lower bands are too far. They don't work. Anyway experience will teach. {image}
See you in weeks time
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -66.1%
  • #73,396
  • Feb 18, 2018 2:45pm Feb 18, 2018 2:45pm
Quoting nealpek
forex, your analysis is as valid and astute as any other traders can be. The fact that you are looking at potential price moves above and below price and marking off...

Cheers for the repsonse, I hope next week we get all the pips we deserve and encourage and uplift others to do same
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #73,397
  • Feb 18, 2018 2:51pm Feb 18, 2018 2:51pm
inside bar breakouts up up up ... maybe let's hope. Pretty sure lots people will jump in if it continously going higher at the opening asian session.
Whatever is happening right now has happened before and will happen again.
  • #73,398
  • Feb 18, 2018 2:52pm Feb 18, 2018 2:52pm
I sure prefer this JPY thread as many of you guys are posting charts which is awesome !!!
Whatever is happening right now has happened before and will happen again.
  • #73,399
  • Feb 18, 2018 4:46pm Feb 18, 2018 4:46pm
My 2 cents for the current situation.
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  • #73,400
  • Feb 18, 2018 6:58pm Feb 18, 2018 6:58pm
Quoting nealpek
ALERT!! possible bottom in place, or top depending if you are upside down 66.66% retracement, 32% if you can't count that high, 22% if you ate chicken for dinner, 10% for senior citizens p/o divergence, b/o dissection b/a convulsions, a/b congruence, convergence of all 6 dimensions oversold, overbought with spatial disability, too high, too low, much too much, not enough, amount exceeds all comprehension hammer, pinbar, pin head, chisel ,knife, vaccuum, scissor, screw driver, ratchet, forward thinking end of 5 impulse waves, beginning of under current,...
..perfect analysis...
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