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Divergence Pip Range Trading

  • #601
  • Jan 19, 2018 4:49am Jan 19, 2018 4:49am
A busy session to end the week.

A fortunate entry on EURUSD, I'd set a sell limit at 1.2295 on the belief that the setup would be very good and thankfully it got tripped in, just. Closed for +15. Probably going to give EURUSD some space now, if it does pop I think it'll motor so I'll be an observer for now. You can also see I missed a continuation trade as it bounced nicely off of the cloud.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-m3-international-capital-markets.png Size: 48 KB
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  • #602
  • Jan 22, 2018 6:18am Jan 22, 2018 6:18am
So it's been a slow start to the year and I've just been looking for a few stats, patterns or anything of value. Predominately, 80%+ of my trading comes from AUD pairs and an interesting stat I've seen is that currently GBPUSD is showing a larger 5 day average range than GBPAUD and EURUSD is showing the same against EURAUD. Usually, AUD crosses are vastly more volatile. I think this stems from the general USD weakness as all three currencies (AUD, EUR and GBP) have had a strong start to the year.

Markets are forever evolving/changing and its a case of adapting to continue to maintain an edge. I'll be interested to watching the next few weeks to see if the above holds true.

Edited to add, I've just checked the 20 ADR (20 day average range) and currently GBPAUD is at a 40 month low at an average of 108 pips per day. It reached a low of 97 back in August 2014 and then went rampant and peaked at 315 pips in September 2015. So, are we in a sustained low volatile period or are prices about to get fruity?
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  • #603
  • Jan 25, 2018 1:58am Jan 25, 2018 1:58am
A testament to just how much movement there is out there is this chart. The trade only lasted 32 minutes but just look at the number of candles to do it. Aimed for the prior low before the Euro open and nearly got bounced out but it ducked back down again and closed for +27.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud-m3-international-capital-markets.png Size: 51 KB
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  • #604
  • Feb 5, 2018 5:42am Feb 5, 2018 5:42am
Haven't updated for a while. Glad to see the back of January, seemed to drag on forever. February has rocketed on already! Parents arrive for a nice holiday in 3 weeks which will be fun.

Come and say hello at https://flipfloptrader.com
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  • #605
  • Feb 6, 2018 7:09am Feb 6, 2018 7:09am
I do enjoy when a good plan comes together! As hinted at, GBPUSD went well past the 1.3900 handle and whilst I got a very fortunate entry (I set a buy limit at 1.3865) with it just tipping in prior to the NY open I knew I had a strong plan. Range bars are very good at seeing clear trends but equally when trading contrarian to the trend it can be very easy to be caught out. You have to have a clear plan and level/reasoning for entering.

I wasn't greedy with the target and closed for +13.5. A perfect trade would have been to then short it from the KS (blue line) and collect +13 going that way. Very happy with the +13 anyway and will call it a night.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-m3-international-capital-markets-2.png Size: 40 KB
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  • #606
  • Feb 14, 2018 4:25am Feb 14, 2018 4:25am
Got caught out by a false move on GBPAUD. After initially closing below the area where price has bounced all day, I waited to see how it'd react and it quickly jumped higher before being rejected from the TS (red line). I took this as a good sign and entered on the next close below. I essentially picked the low of the move haha. Out for -23.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud-m3-international-capital-markets.png Size: 35 KB
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  • #607
  • Feb 26, 2018 2:43am Feb 26, 2018 2:43am
Hello everyone, fresh week ahead and hopefully some good trades in store.

An absolute massive storm is about to hit, the colour of the sky is amazing, going to try and grab a picture.

A nice trade to kick off the week with a +32 result. EURAUD had been trending down nicely during the Asian session and felt it would continue going into the European open. Picked the last major low as an exit area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud-m3-international-capital-markets.png Size: 46 KB


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  • #608
  • Feb 26, 2018 6:22am Feb 26, 2018 6:22am
Rightly or wrongly, I was itching to short GBPUSD as I felt there was room for a pullback before any move higher.

When price began to settle around the 1.4065 area and also the fact EURUSD was well off the daily highs, the setup looked good. Closed for +21.

EURAUD has made fresh daily highs, quite the reversal!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-m3-international-capital-markets.png Size: 35 KB
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  • #609
  • Feb 26, 2018 7:03am Feb 26, 2018 7:03am
Quoting FlipFlopGC
Rightly or wrongly, I was itching to short GBPUSD as I felt there was room for a pullback before any move higher. When price began to settle around the 1.4065 area and also the fact EURUSD was well off the daily highs, the setup looked good. Closed for +21. EURAUD has made fresh daily highs, quite the reversal! {image}
I too had it short, looking at a rebound to and drop down out of a Supply Zone bounded at 1.40644 - nice catch, FlipFlop.
  • #610
  • Feb 27, 2018 8:00am Feb 27, 2018 8:00am
Nice way to wrap up the evening with a solid result post data and pre prepared text from Powell. GBPAUD initially zoomed higher and ran straight into the 85 EMA. The play was to wait for a sign price was turning and then jump in and hopefully catch it going towards the daily low. Closed for +20.5.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud-m15-international-capital-markets.png Size: 42 KB
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  • #611
  • Mar 15, 2018 3:39am Mar 15, 2018 3:39am
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  • #612
  • Mar 15, 2018 4:34am Mar 15, 2018 4:34am
Quoting FlipFlopGC
https://flipfloptrader.com turned 1 yesterday! An enjoyable first year blogging daily trading. However, found out just how hard it is to develop a community/forum from absolute scratch. Hopefully the 2nd year will see continued growth and start to attract a following. There's a $100 giveaway to celebrate the 1st year. Come and check it out!
You've done really well with it - you should be chuffed.
  • #613
  • Mar 15, 2018 5:40am Mar 15, 2018 5:40am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} You've done really well with it - you should be chuffed.
Thanks, Lemercenaire. I can't like your post due to my 'privileges' lol.

It's been an eye opener that's for sure.
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  • #614
  • Mar 22, 2018 8:18am Mar 22, 2018 8:18am
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  • #615
  • Mar 23, 2018 3:46am Mar 23, 2018 3:46am
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  • #616
  • Apr 5, 2018 1:40am Apr 5, 2018 1:40am
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  • #617
  • Apr 6, 2018 5:11am Apr 6, 2018 5:11am
2nd loss in a row for the continuation trade. Perhaps should have exited after the bullish pinbar but let it slide and exited for -15.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud-m3-international-capital-markets.png Size: 51 KB
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  • #618
  • Apr 6, 2018 1:20pm Apr 6, 2018 1:20pm
Quoting FlipFlopGC
2nd loss in a row for the continuation trade. Perhaps should have exited after the bullish pinbar but let it slide and exited for -15. {image}
What was your thinking behind your decision not to exit after the bullish pinbar?
  • #619
  • Apr 8, 2018 6:54pm Apr 8, 2018 6:54pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} What was your thinking behind your decision not to exit after the bullish pinbar?
A good question...

The first reason was, it reversed so quickly it was hard to process and judge accordingly. I guess the other reason was believing too much in an idea that price should go lower. I've always maintained you should trade what you see not what you think and I let that slip this time.
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  • #620
  • Apr 9, 2018 2:23am Apr 9, 2018 2:23am
Quoting FlipFlopGC
{quote} A good question... The first reason was, it reversed so quickly it was hard to process and judge accordingly. I guess the other reason was believing too much in an idea that price should go lower. I've always maintained you should trade what you see not what you think and I let that slip this time.
Well, never a truer word was said
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