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SAFE - KISS

  • #181
  • Feb 4, 2018 4:20pm Feb 4, 2018 4:20pm
Quoting yoriz
{quote} Yes indeed, your strategy is so simple and clean that using an EA is not necessary, especially on the Daily time frame. I am trying to understand how to draw the trendline immediately after having switched between long/short direction. Typically there are not a lot of bars yet in the other direction, so drawing the trendline is not easy. Should the trendline be against the first bar in the other direction? Or should we wait with drawing a trendline until there is a new high/low so it is clear how the trendline should be drawn? Please advice,...
Watch video one more time. All the answers are there.
  • #182
  • Feb 4, 2018 5:36pm Feb 4, 2018 5:36pm
Quoting SirViver
{quote} Hi MrGreen95, Eur/Nzd is another cross pair. Google "Forex Cross pairs" and there are lots of link to get your answer. Sometimes you learn more by looking up and investigating yourself! Green pips to you!

Hello SirViver, ok i googled it and i have understood what is a cross pair: basically, a pair without the USD, so it can't be considered a "MajorPair" Like USD/JPY or EUR/USD.

One thing i don't have understood: Ok EUR/NZD is a cross pair... so? What is the point? Not always trend friendly?
  • #183
  • Feb 4, 2018 5:49pm Feb 4, 2018 5:49pm
Open any pair on the daily. Compare it with the AU, NU or Gold & you see immediately the difference between friendly & unfriendly trending
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #184
  • Feb 4, 2018 5:55pm Feb 4, 2018 5:55pm
Quoting yoriz
{quote} Yes indeed, your strategy is so simple and clean that using an EA is not necessary, especially on the Daily time frame. I am trying to understand how to draw the trendline immediately after having switched between long/short direction. Typically there are not a lot of bars yet in the other direction, so drawing the trendline is not easy. Should the trendline be against the first bar in the other direction? Or should we wait with drawing a trendline until there is a new high/low so it is clear how the trendline should be drawn? Please advice,...
A new line cannot be drawn until the 1st HL / LH has printed. This could take up to 2 weeks to print.

The trend is your friend until it ends. Then you find another Trend friend.
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #185
  • Feb 4, 2018 6:00pm Feb 4, 2018 6:00pm
Quoting Ralffe
Open any pair on the daily. Compare it with the AU, NU or Gold & you see immediately the difference between friendly & unfriendly trending
Ask yourself.
Are you trading forex for fun or are you serious about making money & raising your win rate to 90% plus. If the latter, drop the cross pairs & trade “Trending” pairs like AU, NU, Gold., UC, SPX500 & Oil.
Remember. The trend is your friend until it ends. Then you find another Trend friend.
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #186
  • Feb 4, 2018 11:12pm Feb 4, 2018 11:12pm
I am not sure we can know what is a truly 'trendy' pair until the trend is well on or over. It's like that story about Solon and Croesus - "count no man happy until he is dead." Because anything can and will happen.

For example, GBPUSD - not trendy, right? Yet it trended beautifully upwards for two years from summer 2013 to 2015. Then trended downwards most of 2016.

EURJPY - a filthy cross, trended upwards from July 2012 to Nov 2014. And now it looks very steady to me since March.
GBPNZD - one of the most historically range-bound currencies (used to be great for reversal trading) suddenly in 2015 went up for 6 months or so, then came down for a year or so, and now who can say for sure. Probably steady up for a while.

What's more important to me, would be the swap costs of holding a trade for a long period of time. That's why AU, NU is good, because usually the swap is positive, and you are basically carry-trading. The swap on gold can be horrible, same with SPX.
  • #187
  • Feb 4, 2018 11:57pm Feb 4, 2018 11:57pm
Hi all.
is there a chance, that op or somebody else wright down the rules...
my english is not enough for listen to the video and understand it properly...
i.e. when is the entry possible, i understood after a full bar is closed and don't touch the trendline ..
but ist not always the case..
Money is made by sitting, not trading. Jesse L. Livermore
  • #188
  • Feb 5, 2018 2:19am Feb 5, 2018 2:19am
Quoting sam69
Hi all. is there a chance, that op or somebody else wright down the rules... my english is not enough for listen to the video and understand it properly... i.e. when is the entry possible, i understood after a full bar is closed and don't touch the trendline .. but ist not always the case..
You can turn on subtitles)
  • #189
  • Feb 5, 2018 3:18am Feb 5, 2018 3:18am
Quoting clemmo17
I am not sure we can know what is a truly 'trendy' pair until the trend is well on or over. It's like that story about Solon and Croesus - "count no man happy until he is dead." Because anything can and will happen. For example, GBPUSD - not trendy, right? Yet it trended beautifully upwards for two years from summer 2013 to 2015. Then trended downwards most of 2016. EURJPY - a filthy cross, trended upwards from July 2012 to Nov 2014. And now it looks very steady to me since March. GBPNZD - one of the most historically range-bound currencies (used...
I agree with your trend comments, clemmo, but surely the carry trade thing (with which I have no practical experience) is in one direction only, eg. in the days of the yen carry trade, you needed to be Long USDJPY, as short had a negative carry cost (if I have that the right way around) ?
  • #190
  • Feb 5, 2018 4:48am Feb 5, 2018 4:48am
Yes, and usually the carry cost will be negative both ways, but in one direction it will be less. In the case of USDJPY you'd pay negative swap both sides, but if your broker is honest you'll pay less being long UJ. If the Fed hikes rates one more time we might actually get a positive carry.
  • #191
  • Feb 5, 2018 7:52am Feb 5, 2018 7:52am
Quoting mario777
{quote} Ralffe, may i ask for more clarification. In your trendline you only adjust to draw the TL to the last low when there is a wave right? My question is why did you draw on that candle (2nd arrow on my chart) where there was no wave there? Isnt it should be on the 1st arrow since that is the last wave and as you can see on my pic the aqua TL did not break yet and so no entry yet. Thanks! {image}
Ralffe you still did not answer my question. I assume you cant explain.
  • #192
  • Feb 5, 2018 8:22am Feb 5, 2018 8:22am
Hi Ralffe, thanks for sharing your method.

I just entered this trade on USDCAD, look good to you?
Attached Image
"Be the change that you wish to see in the world." --Gandhi
  • #193
  • Feb 5, 2018 11:29am Feb 5, 2018 11:29am
Quoting mario777
{quote} Ralffe you still did not answer my question. I assume you cant explain.
It's a fair question Mario but give the man time to answer. It's not like catering to our whims is his full time job. Maybe the line was moved by accident when he drew some new ones. As long as you know the rules that's what really counts.
  • #194
  • Edited 11:59am Feb 5, 2018 11:34am | Edited 11:59am
GBP setting up for a possible break. Although it has recovered somewhat already.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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AUDUSD did not retrace as much as I expected. This is a system based on patience though so I think I will wait until it enters (and then leaves) the red rectangle before going short. I'm generally suspicious of the recent USD strength.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Gold setting up nicely and I will pull the trigger as soon as it stops making green candles.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusd-d1-fx-choice-limited.png Size: 36 KB


Update: looking at this more closely I don't think XAU has actually broken its line. There never was a candle floating under the line until it made this new swing low. I will wait and see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #195
  • Feb 5, 2018 11:50am Feb 5, 2018 11:50am
Trading bitcoin this way is just beautiful. The market is a mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient. I think I made that up. Not sure.

Anyone care to guess where it will find support? I think at least down to 5600.

By the way, it's not a bad idea to check the D1 chart on a couple of brokers (you'll definitely have time) as the data is often significantly different. Viz:

SimpleFX
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: btcusd-d1-simplefx-ltd-2.png Size: 38 KB


FXChoice
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #196
  • Feb 5, 2018 1:26pm Feb 5, 2018 1:26pm
Quoting clemmo17
GBP setting up for a possible break. Although it has recovered somewhat already. {image} AUDUSD did not retrace as much as I expected. This is a system based on patience though so I think I will wait until it enters (and then leaves) the red rectangle before going short. I'm generally suspicious of the recent USD strength. {image} Gold setting up nicely and I will pull the trigger as soon as it stops making green candles. {image} Update: looking at this more closely I don't think XAU has actually broken its line. There...
I had the same feelings on the AU, wanted to give it time, I think it will climb more.
Wow! I've got some experience to gain.
  • #197
  • Feb 5, 2018 2:57pm Feb 5, 2018 2:57pm
SPX looks broke for sure, the first time, in what, 4 years? I don't know if I have the guts to actually go short. Maybe just a small trade.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: us500index-d1-fx-choice-limited.png Size: 36 KB
  • #198
  • Feb 5, 2018 3:55pm Feb 5, 2018 3:55pm
Quoting mario777
{quote} Ralffe you still did not answer my question. I assume you cant explain.
Check post 113
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #199
  • Feb 5, 2018 5:38pm Feb 5, 2018 5:38pm
You all should by now be short AU, Gold,NU & about to enter EU.
Long UC & USdollar.
I missed the entry on US500 so will wait for a pull-back to get in.
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #200
  • Feb 5, 2018 5:45pm Feb 5, 2018 5:45pm
Quoting Ralffe
You all should by now be short AU, Gold,NU & about to enter EU. Long UC & USdollar. I missed the entry on US500 so will wait for a pull-back to get in.
AU is leading the charge with EU lagging at present.
Conventional trading is for losers
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