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The Daily Fozzy Method

  • #221
  • Sep 27, 2006 1:32pm Sep 27, 2006 1:32pm
Just a quick observation: The more "indicators" you put on your charts...........the less you will trade. There will always be one indicator that screams, "DO NOT TRADE RIGHT NOW!". I've looked at the RSI and the 50 level with the fozzy method and I personally don't think it is "necessary". I would have already missed profitable trades IF I had been using this trading rule. JMO



Quoting hilmy83
i was reading about the dynamic zone rsi, and it says that another way to gauge if the RSI and MVA cross is valid is to wait for RSI to be > 50 for buy or <50 for sell. I think the MVA 20 acts the same way in that it filters false signals.
  • #222
  • Sep 27, 2006 5:56pm Sep 27, 2006 5:56pm
Quoting BeachBum
Just a quick observation: The more "indicators" you put on your charts...........the less you will trade. There will always be one indicator that screams, "DO NOT TRADE RIGHT NOW!". I've looked at the RSI and the 50 level with the fozzy method and I personally don't think it is "necessary". I would have already missed profitable trades IF I had been using this trading rule. JMO
So you are basically trading the cross of the RSI 21 and RSI 8? Is that about right? Thanks for any comment.
Don Life is expensive, but includes a free trip around the sun.
  • #223
  • Sep 27, 2006 6:28pm Sep 27, 2006 6:28pm
BeachBum,

You are in 9 trades? with some good pips sitting there, Nice work! Have you tested all of these currency pairs? and do they all work well with the Fozzy Method?

Also I noticed you have some pairs such as AUD/NZD... how come I can't see this on my MT4??? What are you using / trading with to see this as I would like to also be able to see more pairs!

Thanks.


Quoting BeachBum
The gbp/usd trade is up 80 pips for me right now while the eur/usd is flat.

I currently have 9 "fozzy" trades open for a total of 295 pips in profit.

eur/usd, gbp/usd, usd/jpy, gbp/jpy, aud/jpy, nzd/usd, aud/nzd, aud/usd, cad/jpy

Good results from the "fozzy"
Ride it like you stole it! Life begins at 25 Knots!
  • #224
  • Sep 28, 2006 12:49am Sep 28, 2006 12:49am
Could you please attach. pictures with ATR/10/ ane explanation , th big problem is move SL,
thx bj

Quoting BeachBum
Hi stricko.......

Right now I am using either "standard" fozzy stop or the ATR (10), whichever is smaller, but I am experimenting with this. I will probably decide on some kind of an average of the two, using MM and my own comfort level. HTH!

I'm not using FXDD as my broker, only data feed for MT4 because the new "daily" opens at 5PM EST (good time for me). They are GMT+3.

I trade with Oanda.
BJ
  • #225
  • Sep 28, 2006 6:55am Sep 28, 2006 6:55am
http://www.aforexblog.com/wp-content...sd-9-28-06.gif



So I shorted this one at the open, and for a while it went well, but reversed. What method do you employ to weed out plays like this one? Is this one a dud or should I hold it for a while longer? Why? Thanks, Paul
So far so good.
  • #226
  • Sep 28, 2006 7:14am Sep 28, 2006 7:14am
Paul,

It's only worth trading a system if you're willing to trade with ALL of the rules. In the case of Fozzy, the rule is that you enter the trade at the signal, and place your stop loss at the high of the previous bar. You're not anywhere near your stop loss. That's when it becomes a dud. Since this is a daily system, you can expect wide fluctuations. But, you'll have to be prepared to set a stop 50 or 100 pips away and wait the trade out.

stockwet

Quoting paul2



So I shorted this one at the open, and for a while it went well, but reversed. What method do you employ to weed out plays like this one? Is this one a dud or should I hold it for a while longer? Why? Thanks, Paul
  • #227
  • Sep 28, 2006 7:20am Sep 28, 2006 7:20am
guys, been on scalping all night & down 80 pips, real money, not just demo.2 days ago a fozzy trade unfolded on gbp, jpy & chf. I closed chf for break even, wish I hadn't, up 150 pips on gbp, closed out for nice profit, up 55 on jpy with 30 locked in. scalping : stresses me, takes enormous time, loses me money & sleep.Thank you fozzy, I will be doing your method from now on. I didn't enter euro as it was a fozzy trade but a double bottom. Just remember to look at double bottoms, fibonacci, T/L breaks, S/R etc,
again, thank you fozzy, must meet up with you in Canberra, used to work in Canberra, I drink at the Old Canberra Inn when in Canberra, I am in Heathcote, southern Sydney,
Baz
tel +61 402037066, [email protected]
  • #228
  • Sep 28, 2006 8:34am Sep 28, 2006 8:34am
traderone.............

Please go back and read the very first post by fozzy to confirm the cross setup. I am trading his very simple method with the exception that I do not pay attention to the BB bands.

Thanks to fozzy!


Quoting traderone
So you are basically trading the cross of the RSI 21 and RSI 8? Is that about right? Thanks for any comment.
  • #229
  • Sep 28, 2006 8:40am Sep 28, 2006 8:40am
Hello HAAK.......

I have my charts set up 18 pairs because I can trade these with my broker, Oanda. I have not as of yet had a "fozzy" trade setup on all pairs, but it's only a matter of time before this happens.

On MT4, left click on the "Market Watch" tab in the upper toolbar. When the "Market Watch" box appears on the left side of your window, right click on it and a new box will open. Left click on the "Show All" option and you will have all the currency pairs available for charting. Enjoy!


Quoting HighAsAKite
BeachBum,

You are in 9 trades? with some good pips sitting there, Nice work! Have you tested all of these currency pairs? and do they all work well with the Fozzy Method?

Also I noticed you have some pairs such as AUD/NZD... how come I can't see this on my MT4??? What are you using / trading with to see this as I would like to also be able to see more pairs!

Thanks.
  • #230
  • Sep 28, 2006 8:45am Sep 28, 2006 8:45am
ATR (Average True Range) is a basic MT4 indicator that comes in the initial download. You can attach it to your price chart or "fozzy" indicator window with "drag & drop" function. I set the period to 10 so that I have the ATR for the last 10 trading days (2 business weeks). That's arbitrary, it's the time period I prefer. If you don't want the indicator line to show, select "no color" and all you will get is the ATR number in the upper left corner of the indicator window. Play with it a while until you get what you like.



Quoting brainjt
Could you please attach. pictures with ATR/10/ ane explanation , th big problem is move SL,
thx bj
  • #231
  • Sep 28, 2006 8:46am Sep 28, 2006 8:46am
Hey Paul,

Cable looked alot like this one when the new bar was forming last night. I took out a short trade at 1.8889 with a 30 pip SL. Within an hour or two the thing whipsawed badly, taking out my stop and then plummeted back down to below my original entry. It's now more than 100 pips below my original entry point and I would have been sitting pretty if not for the whipsaw.

Two things I'll do before I do a Fozzy trade next time that would have prevented my problem- I'll drop down to the 4 hour chart and have a look- less than a half hour after placing my trade the 4H chart had a classic Fozzy signal- LONG!

The second- I'll do a fibbonaci re-tracement. When I entered short, cable at 1.8889 was just above the 62% resistance line...after it whipsawed....it punched right through that line like a hot knife through butter and commenced a nice free-fall.

Fozzy is good, if you can just clear any static before you get in!

Quoting paul2
http://www.aforexblog.com/wp-content...sd-9-28-06.gif



So I shorted this one at the open, and for a while it went well, but reversed. What method do you employ to weed out plays like this one? Is this one a dud or should I hold it for a while longer? Why? Thanks, Paul
Is your SL my TP?
  • #232
  • Sep 28, 2006 8:52am Sep 28, 2006 8:52am
Well said stockwet...........

I'm in this trade too at 1.2686 and so far I've been down a maximum of 36 pips, which is no big deal when you trade a daily system on a currency pair that has an ATR of 77. This trade is really flat (right now I'm down 10). In an earlier post, fozzy showed a trade like this that took several days to pay out............patience is the key. I should also note that I went short on the gbp/usd at the same time I shorted the eur and I'm still in that trade at a plus 187 pips. So if I closed both "fozzy" trades right now, I'd be up 177. Not too bad!

Thanks again fozzy!


Quoting stockwet
Paul,

It's only worth trading a system if you're willing to trade with ALL of the rules. In the case of Fozzy, the rule is that you enter the trade at the signal, and place your stop loss at the high of the previous bar. You're not anywhere near your stop loss. That's when it becomes a dud. Since this is a daily system, you can expect wide fluctuations. But, you'll have to be prepared to set a stop 50 or 100 pips away and wait the trade out.

stockwet
  • #233
  • Sep 28, 2006 8:59am Sep 28, 2006 8:59am
Quoting BeachBum
Well said stockwet...........

I'm in this trade too at 1.2686 and so far I've been down a maximum of 36 pips, which is no big deal when you trade a daily system on a currency pair that has an ATR of 77. This trade is really flat (right now I'm down 10). In an earlier post, fozzy showed a trade like this that took several days to pay out............patience is the key. I should also note that I went short on the gbp/usd at the same time I shorted the eur and I'm still in that trade at a plus 187 pips. So if I closed both "fozzy" trades right now, I'd be up 177. Not too bad!

Thanks again fozzy!
Then I guess there's that, too. Guess I'll have learn to start pinching my nose and setting those heavy stoploss orders.
Is your SL my TP?
  • #234
  • Sep 28, 2006 8:59am Sep 28, 2006 8:59am
kenmania...............

If you had followed the original "fozzy" rules, your stop would have been 1.9026 and you would not have stopped out on a 30 pip stop. 84 pips may sound like a big S/L, but it's really not with a daily trading method on a pair with an ATR of 120. Even a more conservative stop of one-third the ATR would have saved your trade.


Quoting kenmania
Hey Paul,

Cable looked alot like this one when the new bar was forming last night. I took out a short trade at 1.8889 with a 30 pip SL. Within an hour or two the thing whipsawed badly, taking out my stop and then plummeted back down to below my original entry. It's now more than 100 pips below my original entry point and I would have been sitting pretty if not for the whipsaw.

Two things I'll do before I do a Fozzy trade next time that would have prevented my problem- I'll drop down to the 4 hour chart and have a look- less than a half hour after placing my trade the 4H chart had a classic Fozzy signal- LONG!

The second- I'll do a fibbonaci re-tracement. When I entered short, cable at 1.8889 was just above the 62% resistance line...after it whipsawed....it punched right through that line like a hot knife through butter and commenced a nice free-fall.

Fozzy is good, if you can just clear any static before you get in!
  • #235
  • Sep 28, 2006 9:02am Sep 28, 2006 9:02am
I'm just glad to be learning this stuff while paper trading.



Quoting BeachBum
kenmania...............

If you had followed the original "fozzy" rules, your stop would have been 1.9026 and you would not have stopped out on a 30 pip stop. 84 pips may sound like a big S/L, but it's really not with a daily trading method on a pair with an ATR of 120. Even a more conservative stop of one-third the ATR would have saved your trade.
Is your SL my TP?
  • #236
  • Sep 28, 2006 9:30am Sep 28, 2006 9:30am
Hey, I checked out the 4 hour charts as you suggested and I think I see what you mean. However, what stockwet mentioned in his post rings true, as it never got anywhere near fozzy's recomended close, and after checking the charts 5 minutes ago, eur/usd has now moved in my favor. I'm up 4 pips on it, and I'm up 70 pips on a USD/JPY play. I also checked a few charts yesterday and made note of them, those have all moved at least 30 pips in the direction indicated since open. So far, Fozzy's system seems to be gold. We'll see though, what happens when that first failure hits a stop loss and eradicates a month's worth of trading.

Edited to add, don't set your stop loss so tight on a daily trade. Fozzy suggests using the previous day's high / low, so I'd go with that unless my gut says something else (in which case, i wouldn't take the trade)

Quoting kenmania
Hey Paul,

Cable looked alot like this one when the new bar was forming last night. I took out a short trade at 1.8889 with a 30 pip SL. Within an hour or two the thing whipsawed badly, taking out my stop and then plummeted back down to below my original entry. It's now more than 100 pips below my original entry point and I would have been sitting pretty if not for the whipsaw.

Two things I'll do before I do a Fozzy trade next time that would have prevented my problem- I'll drop down to the 4 hour chart and have a look- less than a half hour after placing my trade the 4H chart had a classic Fozzy signal- LONG!

The second- I'll do a fibbonaci re-tracement. When I entered short, cable at 1.8889 was just above the 62% resistance line...after it whipsawed....it punched right through that line like a hot knife through butter and commenced a nice free-fall.

Fozzy is good, if you can just clear any static before you get in!
So far so good.
  • #237
  • Sep 28, 2006 9:39am Sep 28, 2006 9:39am
I agree

And...........I've already had a loss with a VERY BIG stop on the aud/nzd on Tuesday (-115 pips). But.........I have had (and I'm still in) enough winning trades with this method that 155 pip loss does not even show up on the radar.


Quoting paul2
Hey, I checked out the 4 hour charts as you suggested and I think I see what you mean. However, what stockwet mentioned in his post rings true, as it never got anywhere near fozzy's recomended close, and after checking the charts 5 minutes ago, eur/usd has now moved in my favor. I'm up 4 pips on it, and I'm up 70 pips on a USD/JPY play. I also checked a few charts yesterday and made note of them, those have all moved at least 30 pips in the direction indicated since open. So far, Fozzy's system seems to be gold. We'll see though, what happens when that first failure hits a stop loss and eradicates a month's worth of trading.

Edited to add, don't set your stop loss so tight on a daily trade. Fozzy suggests using the previous day's high / low, so I'd go with that unless my gut says something else (in which case, i wouldn't take the trade)
  • #238
  • Sep 28, 2006 9:55am Sep 28, 2006 9:55am
Hi BB, I was reading through the thread again and I remember reading that originally Fozzy only traded the four majors... I have done very well again on all of these pairs with this last set of signals. The EUR was a little slow, but it is starting to pick up momentum now also... I have not back tested AUD or CAD, but I did some random testing and I was not very pleased with the tests... Too many false starts...

For what it's worth... Scott


Quoting BeachBum
I agree

And...........I've already had a loss with a VERY BIG stop on the aud/nzd on Tuesday (-115 pips). But.........I have had (and I'm still in) enough winning trades with this method that 155 pip loss does not even show up on the radar.
  • #239
  • Sep 28, 2006 10:38am Sep 28, 2006 10:38am
Hello Scott........

I'm aware of fozzy only trading the four majors. However, I want to see if this method works on ALL currency pairs. So far my forward test would "suggest" it is. Right now I'm in a cad/jpy for three days and up almost 200 pips and a eur/cad for three days and up 130 pips. Really not too bad, don't you think? You know me.............I LOVE forward testing, so I'm going to be on this one for a while and will post all my findings, the good and the not so good! And I always enjoy your comments and observations.

I just hope fozzy doesn't think I've hijacked "HIS" thread.........

fozzy, you still out there? watching the rest of us with your method?


Quoting smjones
Hi BB, I was reading through the thread again and I remember reading that originally Fozzy only traded the four majors... I have done very well again on all of these pairs with this last set of signals. The EUR was a little slow, but it is starting to pick up momentum now also... I have not back tested AUD or CAD, but I did some random testing and I was not very pleased with the tests... Too many false starts...

For what it's worth... Scott
  • #240
  • Sep 28, 2006 10:45am Sep 28, 2006 10:45am
Hey Scott.........

I can't seem to make $$$ on this pair to matter what I do, so I have been VERY careful with this one and the fozzy. So far no trades. I have traded the aud/nzd and lost and right now I'm in that pair again and down about 10 pips..........but the aud/jpy has been good to me in the past. So we'll see.
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