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SAFE - KISS

  • #141
  • Feb 1, 2018 7:07am Feb 1, 2018 7:07am
Ralffe,
Is AU setting up? I drew several lines just to check.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily.png Size: 66 KB
Wow! I've got some experience to gain.
  • #142
  • Feb 1, 2018 7:09am Feb 1, 2018 7:09am
I'm in love with this type of analysis because it makes you focus just on price with a clean and free chart
  • #143
  • Feb 1, 2018 7:42am Feb 1, 2018 7:42am
Well-spotted, Lawnman - my understanding is that we can't tell till tomorrow's bar : if it retraces up, then we just move the trendline to today's Low; if it heads south, then go short. Ralffe ?
  • #144
  • Feb 1, 2018 8:07am Feb 1, 2018 8:07am
Quoting Lawnman
Ralffe, Is AU setting up? I drew several lines just to check. {image}
I'm not sure if you should consider that one Daily candle as both a new Higher High & Lower Low. It's only 8 pips lower than the bar before it. You could instead look at this as just a pull back for another long entry. See below chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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“The waiting is the hardest part” Tom Petty
  • #145
  • Edited 8:25am Feb 1, 2018 8:09am | Edited 8:25am
Quoting Lawnman
Ralffe, Is AU setting up? I drew several lines just to check. {image}
I was looking it too and we have to just wait: it could be a nice short or just a new high. Let's see

Please ignore the grey lines. I don't know why, but when i change pair the lines doesn't cancel

This is a weekly chart, look the white line: we are on a round number too, and notice that the price already tried to broke it 3 times; maybe the fourth is the good one...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #146
  • Feb 1, 2018 8:37am Feb 1, 2018 8:37am
Quoting MrGreen95
{quote} I was looking it too and we have to just wait: it could be a nice short or just a new high. Let's see Please ignore the grey lines. I don't know why, but when i change pair the lines doesn't cancel This is a weekly chart, look the white line: we are on a round number too, and notice that the price already tried to broke it 3 times; maybe the fourth is the good one... {image}
Will be anxious to see what Rallfe thinks. My past experience tells me whenever I think a trend has ended, I am usually surprised, and wrong. So if in doubt, go with the trend. Also a much lower risk to trade it as a pull back and see, than to trade it as a trend reversal with a huge stop 20 pips above HH.
“The waiting is the hardest part” Tom Petty
  • #147
  • Feb 1, 2018 10:18am Feb 1, 2018 10:18am
I realized this method could have kept me in very strongly trending instruments like indices, for ex. S&P500 until the trend was actually over. And then got me back in. So I could have been making risk-free profits since 2012 and not needed to trade forex at all.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The only thing I would change when trading something that has a rock-solid trend is add a rule requiring a bar to close away from the line.

So yesterday I could have exited the trend at the bar's open since there was daylight between the price and the line and there is no new swing high or low to anchor the other end of my line to.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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However later price rose back up to touch the line. Today the situation is the same, although there's more daylight between the line and price. However if there's a rally (which is likely) it could come back to the line keeping my long trade alive. Tomorrow if the low price is higher than yesterday's low price, I have a new swing low to adjust my line to. Anyone care to predict the likelihood of that?
  • #148
  • Feb 1, 2018 12:33pm Feb 1, 2018 12:33pm
Whats your thought's on Gold as it hits a major Res level....Rallfe...?....Are my line right?
Or do you take S/R into consideration at all?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD_1440_2018-2-01_11-30-15.png Size: 39 KB
Git r Dun
  • #149
  • Feb 1, 2018 1:22pm Feb 1, 2018 1:22pm
Ehy guys, what do you think about nzd/usd? I see it long after this candle

BUT

Some pip above we have a very important level (so a triangle has formed if we anchor our trendline to it) don't broken in weekly (3 attempts). So another scenario could be a lower high.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #150
  • Feb 1, 2018 3:09pm Feb 1, 2018 3:09pm
Quoting MrGreen95
Ehy guys, what do you think about nzd/usd? I see it long after this candle BUT Some pip above we have a very important level (so a triangle has formed if we anchor our trendline to it) don't broken in weekly (3 attempts). So another scenario could be a lower high. {image}
I think, you should move your line lower to the last highest low.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #151
  • Feb 1, 2018 3:53pm Feb 1, 2018 3:53pm
MrGreen95....I agree with antisystem back one more.........hitting a key level too
Git r Dun
  • #152
  • Edited 6:28pm Feb 1, 2018 6:16pm | Edited 6:28pm
I'm exercicing because i'd like to master this trading approach. I'll be glad if you could tell me what do you think about my screenshots.

Cheers :-)

Edit: I noticed that is a chart already posted from me, sorry i've forgotten about it. I just taked a clear trend and then i placed the trendline. Anyway this screen is more clear
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  • #153
  • Feb 1, 2018 6:30pm Feb 1, 2018 6:30pm
Good comments guys n gals
Price is locked in what appears to be a wave 2. (Could be wrong) If I'm right we will get the move South early next week. It's worth waiting for & being patient.
Could just as easy head North again so stick to the lines on the Daily. Much better than entering on speculation & getting your arse kicked.
Shows I moved the line on Gold far too soon. Fixed now.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDDaily.png Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDDaily.png Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: DXY_H8Daily.png Size: 29 KB
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #154
  • Feb 1, 2018 6:44pm Feb 1, 2018 6:44pm
Quoting MrGreen95
I'm exercicing because i'd like to master this trading approach. I'll be glad if you could tell me what do you think about my screenshots. Cheers :-) Edit: I noticed that is a chart already posted from me, sorry i've forgotten about it. I just taked a clear trend and then i placed the trendline. Anyway this screen is more clear {image}
For continuation add on trades you need to draw lines as per the magenta lines in this pic.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDDaily.png Size: 36 KB
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #155
  • Feb 1, 2018 7:32pm Feb 1, 2018 7:32pm
Quoting Ralffe
Good comments guys n gals Price is locked in what appears to be a wave 2. (Could be wrong) If I'm right we will get the move South early next week. It's worth waiting for & being patient. Could just as easy head North again so stick to the lines on the Daily. Much better than entering on speculation & getting your arse kicked. Shows I moved the line on Gold far too soon. Fixed now. {image} {image} {image} {image}
Many thanks for sharing your time and wisdom. I am done practicing on 1 minute charts and looking for the right time to jump in on some Dailys. Got to practice sitting on my hands! lol.
“The waiting is the hardest part” Tom Petty
  • #156
  • Feb 2, 2018 7:30am Feb 2, 2018 7:30am
Did we missed a short and long here...?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #157
  • Feb 2, 2018 9:32am Feb 2, 2018 9:32am
Ralffe, what can you say about situation on AUDUSD?
Now we wait for next bar not crossing the line as a confirmation for entry. Correct?
Or as close and open were practically on the line we can use this breakout bar as an entry?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #158
  • Edited 11:37am Feb 2, 2018 11:27am | Edited 11:37am
AUD may recovering from the news.....but it has bounced off Res......got to watch for buyers who may send AUD back up to hit sell stops on the way then reverse again....(banks)....I'm waiting for next week......I'm not an expert but thats what I've learned

Watch your lower time frames
Git r Dun
  • #159
  • Feb 2, 2018 12:28pm Feb 2, 2018 12:28pm
EUR/CAD continuation
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  • #160
  • Feb 2, 2018 7:09pm Feb 2, 2018 7:09pm
Quoting antisystem
Ralffe, what can you say about situation on AUDUSD? Now we wait for next bar not crossing the line as a confirmation for entry. Correct? Or as close and open were practically on the line we can use this breakout bar as an entry? {image}
I think we can safely sat AU has broken South. However. Every move has a pull-back. Even a candle. So. Wait on Monday for the daily candle to retrace ( probably 30% to 50%) before entering the trade after price starts moving down the candle again. Price may even retrace back to the line before the down move continues. ..Patience..
We should also see entries on NU, Gold, UC & EU on Monday or Tuesday.
Conventional trading is for losers
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