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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #6,021
  • Jan 26, 2018 10:17am Jan 26, 2018 10:17am
Three possible scenarios as an outcome of current balance:

  1. So, upside we could aim at 4254.
  2. While downside, in case of continuation of current liquidation we have, as a first step, the acceptation below yesterday pit rally high (below 4170) and then the GB spike base from 23 of current month at 4104. Finally, in case of acceptation also below it, we could see a test of 40775.
  3. The final scenario (the third one) is to remain almost in balance inside the current initial balance of pit session. This will mean a couple of breakout failure from current inside period.

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  • #6,022
  • Jan 30, 2018 1:05am Jan 30, 2018 1:05am
2018/01/30 08:05 +1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Last Friday we saw the building of an inside pit session meaning that the entire range of it (4136-4226) has been contained inside the range of the previous Thursday pit session (40825-43185). Consequently balance rules had to be considered yesterday. And yesterday during the pit session we saw a breakout from balance with a downside direction.
Also yesterday pit session opened with a gap from previous pit session low and preserved it until settle.
Today we will have to see if this attempted breakout from balance will be confirmed with an acceptation below the balance extremes (40825 and 4136) or if instead we will assist to a failure of it.

In the meanwhile upcoming GB session will have to confront with the yesterday GB attempt downside underlined by its spike downside whose base is at 4099. Any open below this level could indicate the need to a further inspection downside, at least initially. An open above it could mean the opposite. Also it will be important to evaluate GB open in relation with yesterday GB low at 40565 (if open below it we will have a new GB gap downside) and in relation to yesterday GB close level at 40425: any serious continuation downside will need a clear acceptation below it.

An other note about GB is that we left upside a very rare cluster of old multi pass gaps around 4161-42175. If something will go wrong downside don't be surprised to see price coming up to this zone to fill it.

Finally consider that price is currently inside an other multi pass GB gap zone at 39783-4027: if around here at open we could see GB spending some time to fill it.
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  • #6,023
  • Jan 30, 2018 2:58am Jan 30, 2018 2:58am
Quoting Lock
2018/01/30 08:05 +1GMT EARLY MORNING REPORT ... Finally consider that price is currently inside an other multi pass GB gap zone at 39783-4027: if around here at open we could see GB spending some time to fill it.
GB open inside this zone, went down exactly to its lower extreme 39783 and then start the filling of it up to its higher extreme 4027: The importance of market generated information.
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  • #6,024
  • Jan 30, 2018 3:16am Jan 30, 2018 3:16am
Quoting Lock
2018/01/30 08:05 +1GMT EARLY MORNING REPORT ....... Also it will be important to evaluate GB open in relation with yesterday GB low at 40565 (if open below it we will have a new GB gap downside) and in relation to yesterday GB close level at 40425: any serious continuation downside will need a clear acceptation below it. An other note about GB is that we left upside a very rare cluster of old multi pass gaps around 4161-42175. If something will go wrong downside...
Monitor for acceptation or rejection above 40425 yesterday GB close. And if the new gap downside will be filled, monitor for acceptation or rejection above yesterday GB low 40565.
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  • #6,025
  • Jan 30, 2018 4:03am Jan 30, 2018 4:03am
Fine. I'm off for a while. Have a nice continuation. Best, L.
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  • #6,026
  • Jan 30, 2018 11:43am Jan 30, 2018 11:43am
Quoting Lock
2018/01/30 08:05 +1GMT EARLY MORNING REPORT Last Friday we saw the building of an inside pit session meaning that the entire range of it (4136-4226) has been contained inside the range of the previous Thursday pit session (40825-43185). Consequently balance rules had to be considered yesterday.
Quoting Lock
And yesterday during the pit session we saw a breakout from balance with a downside direction. Also yesterday pit session opened with a gap from previous pit session low and preserved it until settle. Today we will have to see if this attempted breakout from balance will be confirmed with an acceptation below the balance extremes (40825 and 4136) or if instead we will assist to a failure of it....
I suggest to monitor carefully current situation as price is testing 4136 (Friday inside pit session low extreme): acceptation above it could mean a complete reversal of the attempted break downside and then price aiming towards opposite side of balance: 4226 and 43185. At the opposite a failure above it could mean a possible continuation of the previous attempted break downside.
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  • #6,027
  • Jan 31, 2018 1:33am Jan 31, 2018 1:33am
Yesterday morning I was writing this statement:

Quoting Lock
2018/01/30 08:05 +1GMT EARLY MORNING REPORT ..... An other note about GB is that we left upside a very rare cluster of old multi pass gaps around 4161-42175. If something will go wrong downside don't be surprised to see price coming up to this zone to fill it. Finally consider that price is currently inside an other multi pass GB gap zone at 39783-4027: if around here at open we could see GB spending some time to fill it.
So, are you surprised? I think you aren't. (Or at least you should not) Now let's see at GB open: note anyway that the most relevant portion of this GB multi pass gap zone is between 4205 and 42175 because there we have the zone with the biggest amount of GB gaps overlapped.
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  • #6,028
  • Jan 31, 2018 1:57am Jan 31, 2018 1:57am
Yesterday I wrote that during pit session we could have a response about the previous session's attempted breakout downside from balance. At the end of yesterday pit session we got acceptation back inside balance, meaning, as I wrote yesterday, that price could now aim at the top of that balance. Anyhow I suggest to note that pit session managed to obtain acceptation back inside balance only after an impressive rally performed by previous GB session. And that GB session profile is particularly elongated and stretched, leaving downside a lot of anomalies.

As a consequence of this consideration, you should not be surprised if, after the possible filling of the multi pass GB gap zone, we will assist to a liquidation in order to correct those anomalies and that bad profile.

I'm not say it has to do it. I'm saying that you should be prepared in the case of such an event. And I consequently suggest to put this scenario among the other you should already have prepared.
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  • #6,029
  • Jan 31, 2018 3:33am Jan 31, 2018 3:33am
Inside period: balance rules apply
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  • #6,030
  • Jan 31, 2018 3:54am Jan 31, 2018 3:54am
Watch out if we do not find acceptation back inside yesterday GB session range, meaning below yesterday GB high at 41373.
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  • #6,031
  • Jan 31, 2018 4:01am Jan 31, 2018 4:01am
41225 yesterday GB close: acceptation needed below it for any meaningful continuation of current liquidation downside.
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  • #6,032
  • Jan 31, 2018 10:29am Jan 31, 2018 10:29am
Quoting Lock
41225 yesterday GB close: acceptation needed below it for any meaningful continuation of current liquidation downside.
I hope anyone could appreciate the fact that the entire action upside originated by a failure at yesterday GB close 41225. At the pip.

Now consider the following: pit action managed to reach the top of the inside pit session at 4226 and it is currently testing it. In case of acceptation above we could see price aiming at the top of the containing pit session (the very top of the balance) at 43185. In case of failure above 4226 we could experience balance until FOMC or even liquidation.

In any case consider that the multi pass GB gap zone has not been filled by GB participants, so next days it could be revisited.
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  • #6,033
  • Edited 1:12am Feb 1, 2018 12:34am | Edited 1:12am
2018/02/01 07:34 +1GMT (edited 08:12, added GB info and chart)
EARLY MORNING REPORT

A fast recap of current environment: a top down perspective.

Major timeframes environment:

  1. We are in a mid term trend upside underlined by one time frame action upside both in monthly and in weekly timeframes.
  2. We are in a daily balance.

Pit session:

  1. During Monday we saw an attempted breakout downside from balance made by pit session.(below balance lower extremes 40825 and 4136.)
  2. After that attempt we got 2 consecutive pit session coming and closing back inside the balance range. (above balance lower extremes 40825 and 4136.)
  3. This could have had reinforced the possibility to continue higher towards the top of the balance (4226 and 43185) And in fact yesterday we saw Pit session reaching the high of the inside pit session at 4226: but it failed once to get acceptation above it.
  4. So we do not know if we will see a new attempt upside to test again 4226 and in case of success to continue higher towards 43185, or if the yesterday test has been enough and we could now liquidate peacefully.
  5. In any case we got some very weak zones to take into consideration:

    1. Upside we have: 4254 (last Friday preUS session break occurred after an exact tag of previous day preUS open), 42325 (Yesterday pit session tagged almost exactly 2010 low at 42323 and liquidate)
    2. Downside: 41505 (yesterday Pit session poor low, tagging previous preUS session low and less than 2 pips above the previous day preUS open 4149) and 4098 (Tuesday Pit low tagging exactly Monday pit high)

GB session:

  1. We have a multi pass GB gap zone at 4197-42175 that has not been filled yet by GB participants: it is possible to see next GB action over it.
  2. 41215 (yesterday GB low is almost a perfect tag of previous day Gb close at 41225: while yesterday it was very useful in order to spot a buy position after the failure below such level, at the same time, as any exact reference tag, it is a weak level now.
  3. Tuesday GB very elongated session (with numerous anomalies) has never been corrected.

Other major levels

  1. The close levels for January are: 41775 (Tokyo), 4188 (GB), 41895 (Pit)
  2. The highest close levels for current year are: 4246 (Tokyo), 42625 (GB), 42415 (Pit)
  3. Most important mid term levels in this zone are: 4078 (an old 2016 yearly low) and 42323 (2010 low)

Obvious consideration about levels:

  1. Any serious action upside need acceptation above these levels (in relation to occurring session)
  2. As any meaningful action downside required the opposite.

Points of control

  1. Major composite pocs of this zone are: 4215 and 4261

SESSIONS CHART

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2018-02-01_8-00-46_sessions.png Size: 458 KB
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  • #6,034
  • Feb 1, 2018 2:01am Feb 1, 2018 2:01am
So, we opened at the base of the multi pass GB gap zone: if it will fill it, search for acceptation above it (42175)for continuation upside, because, if not, we could liquidate again.
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  • #6,035
  • Feb 1, 2018 2:18am Feb 1, 2018 2:18am
Quoting Lock
2018/02/01 07:34 +1GMT (edited 08:12, added GB info and chart) EARLY MORNING REPORT ... GB session: We have a multi pass GB gap zone at 4197-42175 that has not been filled yet by GB participants: it is possible to see next GB action over it. .....
Quoting Lock
Other major levels The close levels for January are: 41775 (Tokyo), 4188 (GB), 41895 (Pit) The highest close levels for current year are: 4246 (Tokyo), 42625 (GB), 42415 (Pit) Most important mid term levels in this zone are: 4078 (an old 2016 yearly low) and 42323 (2010 low)
Quoting Lock
Obvious consideration about levels: Any serious action upside need acceptation above these levels (in relation to occurring session) As any meaningful action downside required the opposite. Points of control Major composite pocs of this zone are: 4215 and 4261 SESSIONS CHART {image}
So: possible target 4261 composite poc. Then a test of highest GB close 42625. But in order to have this we need acceptation both above 42323 and 42175.
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  • #6,036
  • Feb 1, 2018 2:28am Feb 1, 2018 2:28am
Quoting Lock
{quote} {quote} {quote} So: possible target 4261 composite poc. Then a test of highest GB close 42625. But in order to have this we need acceptation both above 42323 and 42175.
4261 and highest GB close 42625 tagged. Very elongated A period.
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  • #6,037
  • Feb 1, 2018 2:35am Feb 1, 2018 2:35am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 4261 and highest GB close 42625 tagged. Very elongated A period.
As written we got an extremely elongated A period. So you should be very prudent in such cases as bigger participants do not butcher a market like this. In any case, for continuation upside, we need acceptation above the following levels: 42175, 42323 and now also 42625.

Next visible level is 2018 GB highest high at 4293 (the current base of the yet unfilled huge brexit gap downside)

Also take note of the fact that we are before news.
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  • #6,038
  • Feb 1, 2018 7:02am Feb 1, 2018 7:02am
Quoting Lock
{quote} As written we got an extremely elongated A period. So you should be very prudent in such cases as bigger participants do not butcher a market like this. In any case, for continuation upside, we need acceptation above the following levels: 42175, 42323 and now also 42625. Next visible level is 2018 GB highest high at 4293 (the current base of the yet unfilled huge brexit gap downside) Also take note of the fact that we are before...
So, as you see, we got no acceptation above our main GB levels (42175, 42323 and 42625) and as a consequence the weak rally upside performed during period A (the first m30 period of GB session) has been almost entirely retraced. Again: the importance of market generated information.

Now let's see preUS session.
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  • #6,039
  • Feb 1, 2018 7:06am Feb 1, 2018 7:06am
42323 is the most important level for preUS and upcoming pit sessions. Other important levels to evaluate are: 41895 (Pit Jan close), 42415 (Pit 2018 highest close) and the extremes of the pit balance built last week:40825 and 4136 (downside) 4226 and 43185 (upside)
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  • #6,040
  • Feb 1, 2018 7:11am Feb 1, 2018 7:11am
Also, I repost here what I wrote this morning about pit session weak levels:

  1. Upside we have: 4254 (last Friday preUS session break occurred after an exact tag of previous day preUS open), 42325 (Yesterday pit session tagged almost exactly 2010 low at 42323 and liquidate)
  2. Downside: 41505 (yesterday Pit session poor low, tagging previous preUS session low and less than 2 pips above the previous day preUS open 4149) and 4098 (Tuesday Pit low tagging exactly Monday pit high)

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