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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #72,881
  • Jan 26, 2018 10:09am Jan 26, 2018 10:09am
Quoting nealpek
Cashed out, and usually don't hold over the weekend. For fun, can anyone explain what happened here? {image}
I'll try with three possible explanations:

1 - Stop hunt.
2 - Big players looking for liquidity (kinda the same as #1).
3 - Price retraced to a supply zone.
  • #72,882
  • Jan 26, 2018 10:14am Jan 26, 2018 10:14am
Quoting nealpek
Cashed out, and usually don't hold over the weekend. For fun, can anyone explain what happened here? {image}
Helps to know timeframe on chart.

I know what happened here -same spot - on my 30 minute chart - resistance to the tick (actually 4 ticks) at a down trend bar:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ M30.png Size: 44 KB
  • #72,883
  • Jan 26, 2018 10:31am Jan 26, 2018 10:31am
Tyrion24, Good, you got most of it! It's mainly about liquidity. Just above the tops in the circle are people who went short previously, as well as trapped longs who held on hoping price would come back to exit at breakeven. There are also a ton of fresh buystops to trigger. There is also the last green news candle before the fall where most who shorted the news bar put their stops above the wicks in the circle. With the ton of action resting in that spot, the money put their sell limits just above the area, which is what I did as well. Did I know it would work 100%, of course not. But it was the most probable event given where price was at the time and the ease with which the players could trigger a zillion events within a small area! I said before the "traps" yield the best results in an earlier post. Look at the moves from the trap at the 108.50 handle, and the 109.50 handle. The best trades in the markets!! Shouldn't have exited my trade so early,lol!!
If you only look for these types of trades, you will have the best rewards time and time again. Happy trading! Peace.
  • #72,884
  • Edited 12:35pm Jan 26, 2018 10:35am | Edited 12:35pm
Quoting newbegger
{quote} The markets seem to be ignoring the speakers. The Donald says he sees stronger USD. Kuroda says BOJ will continue to ease, and yet USDJPY is grinding lower. Markets that ignore good news are bound to go lower. Stay Short
Stay short the trend has been and continues to be lower.

Trumpie can talk all he wants. And Kuroda for that matter. Price goes where resistance is least.

Although I agree if good news is ignored it is bearish - there was no good news to speak of.
  • #72,885
  • Jan 26, 2018 10:36am Jan 26, 2018 10:36am
I will be looking for signs of bottoming action in the 108.26 area , in the next 90 min.

  • #72,886
  • Jan 26, 2018 11:16am Jan 26, 2018 11:16am
Quoting F.g
I will be looking for signs of bottoming action in the 108.26 area , in the next 90 min.
Let's see....we're at .32 now..
  • #72,887
  • Jan 26, 2018 12:10pm Jan 26, 2018 12:10pm
Quoting MrPresident
if it gets to around 112.8, I feel like selling it because my heart tells me to {image}
lovely, target is now 107.3

500+ pips ?
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #72,888
  • Jan 26, 2018 1:14pm Jan 26, 2018 1:14pm
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} lovely, target is now 107.3 500+ pips ?
Maybe...just maybe....as we near closing, we will see USD/JPY collaspe....I don't know, just muttering nonsense again....good luck to all.
  • #72,889
  • Jan 26, 2018 1:25pm Jan 26, 2018 1:25pm
And a rally out of the blue...am I missing something?

This?

https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=733787

BOJ says Kuroda didn't revise inflation outlook in Davos
  • #72,890
  • Jan 26, 2018 1:27pm Jan 26, 2018 1:27pm
Quoting MoneyFocus
And a rally out of the blue...am I missing something? This? https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=733787 BOJ says Kuroda didn't revise inflation outlook in Davos
  • #72,891
  • Jan 26, 2018 1:33pm Jan 26, 2018 1:33pm
Divergence while flatlining in place late on a Friday is what happened:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ M5 divergence.png Size: 53 KB
  • #72,892
  • Jan 26, 2018 2:09pm Jan 26, 2018 2:09pm
And then resistance once again (although not as close as previous example) at a prior down trend bar ... and 50% price retracement which is hard to see because of such a close overlap:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ M30.png Size: 32 KB
  • #72,893
  • Jan 26, 2018 2:45pm Jan 26, 2018 2:45pm
USD/JPY is about to close around important long trem support around 107.60 – 107.80 area provided by the symmetrical triangle at the monthly chart.
  • #72,894
  • Jan 26, 2018 9:35pm Jan 26, 2018 9:35pm
USDJPY The overwhelming decline of last three weeks confirmed the present downtrend from November 2017 top -
(rather than an impulse wave c down) most likely an expanding diagonal wave c orange with its corrective waves 1, 2, 3 etc.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY 26Jan18.png Size: 99 KB
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #72,895
  • Jan 28, 2018 10:01am Jan 28, 2018 10:01am
108.5 is a strong support for now but 107.3 is a reasonable target next week if the FOMC is dovish and NFP is bad
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #72,896
  • Jan 29, 2018 1:01am Jan 29, 2018 1:01am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Stay short the trend has been and continues to be lower. Trumpie can talk all he wants. And Kuroda for that matter. Price goes where resistance is least. Although I agree if good news is ignored it is bearish - there was no good news to speak of.
The good news was Trump talking up USD, Kuroda talking down Yen. Traders who are bearish USDJPY would say this is bad and traders who are bullish would say this is good. So... How short USDJPY are you?
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #72,897
  • Jan 29, 2018 7:39am Jan 29, 2018 7:39am
looks like it is going up today

i will try to sell from around 100 if it gets there
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #72,898
  • Jan 29, 2018 8:14am Jan 29, 2018 8:14am
Locate the next trap, and you have your trade.
  • #72,899
  • Jan 29, 2018 8:18am Jan 29, 2018 8:18am
price starting to "advertise" lower before the 9:30 open, but hanging around the 75 handle. Hmmmmmm, is it the real intention or not. We'll find out shortly....
  • #72,900
  • Jan 29, 2018 8:24am Jan 29, 2018 8:24am
Quoting nealpek
price starting to "advertise" lower before the 9:30 open, but hanging around the 75 handle. Hmmmmmm, is it the real intention or not. We'll find out shortly....
it will go up since stocks will be bullish this week due to better earnings from major tech companies

USD/JPY is a proxy to stocks
Don't Worry Be Happy
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