EURUSD

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Down move almost over according to Sooth'. Closed short. Up over 20% on the day with minimal equity drawdown due to tight SLs, caught some nice cycles except the short earlier. Winning pips were in the 15 to 30 range. Obviously, I could take the long cycle up and earn a larger pile, just can't be bothered to be honest.

I'm done, the sub 2369 close setup has had two attempts made on it so not going to make a valley of pips out of a mountain. It should be obvious by now that it is possible to find the turning points of price. We live in an age of computing, big data and a whole host of other tools freely available such as R; don't be fooled by traders who say it cannot be done, they're probably 95 percenters.

Those 30 odds pips I refused are looking rather tasty right now.

If Sooth calls a reversal at 2416, I'll post it but I am not going to trade it. Too much risk of revenge trading after those missed 30 pips.

18:25: in the reversal zone but unconfirmed. Updating. Sooth's long was closed at 2406.


18:28: confirmed trend reversals. No guarantees. If I was going short, I'd place my SL 1 pip above the high, keep losses small so can reenter again if necessary.

Since there is an 85% prob' of a close below (or at) 2369, it makes sense to have the PT at 2369, as always, nice R:R if it comes off.

In truth, I think it can go as far as 2340 (pitchfork analysis) but I could be completely wrong because the two pitchforks are upward sloping, this is a very strong uptrend.

If I had taken the trade, I would have been stopped out by anywhere from between minus 2 to minus 6 pips, which is nothing after just scoring 25 to 30 green pips on the previous trade I did not take. Still watching 2416.

Parabolic behaviour of Eurusd Price Action

The reversal is still on as far as Sooth is concerned. The risk management is a discretionary aspect.

I'd actually prefer more dollar weakness to be honest!

Okay, that is me done for the 2nd time today!

There is nothing like testing a concept live in a lagoon full of Sharks and peers. I can see the results for myself in real-time and historically but the acid test is to make live calls to keep one honest. If I was presenting bull-shit the FF Sharks would have bitten my legs and hips clean from the torso but fortunately Soothsayer doesn't seep blood for the Sharks to smell so the Sharks are quiet.

Thus far I've traded on a live account using relatively large positions, the next stage is to practice and train as though I am competing in the Olympics and World Cup. I will use a demo and attempt to turn £1000 into £10000 in 5 trading sessions by using Soothsayer to take Kelly size trades; however, this objective has to be done for 4 consecutive weeks, that is, turn £1000 into £10000 four times in a row. If I manage to achieve the objective, I will let loose on a real account, realistic? Who knows but isn't Soothsayer correct again?

Anyway, less spam in future; it isn't appropriate to camp in this thread because it has a long history and many other posters but I'll still post calls but less "in ya face and down your throat" because you already know Soothsayer is behind them!!!

Green pips

Thanks for the advice, no offence taken. I understand your point. The reason I am on the forum in the first place is to get the views of those further along this journey than I am.

I have been using a risk management strategy lifted loosely from the Joseph Nemeth trading system, so my planned risk capital for the trade is broken into 10 parts and I add to the position as my confidence in the trend improves (using the Heiken Ashi bars for better visual perspective). When I get it all wrong, I am happy it is just a part of my risk capital too and I hedge and compensate to exit the trade without been gored.

Short EU 1.2428. SL 40 pips. TP open. Very risky trade. Don't try this at home.

A risky trade indeed, those search and destroy bots are after your stop loss already! A nice pullback should fix things up after.

This uptrend is so old, everyone thinks it is time for a reversal, but we will continue upward until the short money runs out. The weekly long entry actually started on 19 March 2017 (1.0700), and as parisboy noted it is decidedly parabolic. I suppose with a bit of creative license you could see it coming off a triple bottom around 1.06XX.

I hope that was a save for you, mine only got to 1.2462; closed my daily longs. Hoping that parabolic behaviour means we will get a decent pull back soon (as in the start of the London session). Over and out.

Love your work. I am a fan of the parallel channels. Keep it up!

EUR/USD has eased back to pivot 1.2400 vs almost 1.2460 highs ahead of the ECB meeting.
In my opinion, a strong EUR might delay QE tapering giving reasons for the dovish ECB members to set the tone of the meeting. So be careful with those longs.

Option expiries of note for today's 15:00GMT
EUR/USD: 1.2400 (748M), 1.2435 (218M), 1.2500 (743M)

I'm going to panini out of this one and close my longs until after Super Mario gives it his best shot. Then I'll open new long positions until the lord of orangeness disgraces Davos with his incoherent presence. The market algos are going to be more confused than the average Trump voter, that I can tell you.

PF working great on EURUSD M30

Confirmed micro reversal. Short. No guarantees. Already up 12% woke up 60 minutes ago. I'm still leaving pips on the table, second guessing, no faith etc. At the end of the day the signals have to match a technical or Pitchfork setup.

10:36: Closed for a few. Closed early no faith. This is only demo trading at the moment until I build the necessary confidence to trade Sooth and also solidified the habit.

Up 16.5% not bad considering I've left 80% of the pips on the table due to an inability to hold the trade at this stage of my training the habit. The R:R should be between 3 to 20 depending. Lack of confidence is causing me to operate at 1:1.

1.2400 Hit!

18th Dec 2017 Trade Call. 600 pips.

That is an excellent call!!! I look forward to reading the next. Brill' trading.
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Sooth just gave a long signal. I do not trade the signals but the indicator and Pitchforks. We are not in the reversal zone yet.

11:04: gone long; targeting 2444 but would like 2485.

I think there is room for a Burst up, to 1.26 . I'm not selling yet.

How many days are we talking?


Continuing this at https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post10706941 if you're interested in the journey pop over sometime.

How do I create important POCs from the past?


Hello dear traders,


As you know, there are 3 states in the market.

1st offer outweighs the demand = price drops
2. Demand outweighs the offer = price rises
3. Supply and demand are balanced

We do not want to act in equilibrium, so we wait until the price goes up or down. The price rises or falls on the POC lines, which we do not find with the help of indicators, but have to draw ourselves. Of course, there are indicators that are very unreliable.

If the course goes up in wavy lines and then falls again, it is easy to determine the POC, because the balance is in the immediate vicinity.

But what happens if the price rises like in the last weeks and you can not find a POC because there is no POC.

The answer: you just have to go far enough into the past.





In the overview of the monthly chart you can see the yellow circle no. 1, which has given the course of 1.24 strong movements. So let's take a closer look at these movements in the 15 M chart. (If there is no important balance, we go to circle 2 or circle 3).





In 15 M Chart Dec 14 I then used the price equilibrium to draw my POC lines (in green). Note that these price movements are over 3 years ago.





Now let's take a look at the current chart EURUSD 23.-24. January 2018. As you can see, this works perfectly. While it is not always possible to predict how the price will behave at the POC, it is easier to anticipate in a smaller unit of time. It is crucial to first identify the balance. After that it can only go up or down. This helps me enormously in the calculation of my trades. With this help, I get a big advantage in the market. If you keep an eye on the momentum, anticipate how the big players think and read their footprints, you already have the key to success in your hands.

Best regards