Mr. Scott's Crayon Thread

CAD/NZD Kiwi is limited to the upside compared with the Aussie and The CAD.

10 Year breaking out. 10 year with NZD/USD. The market has completely detached. How often do you get the Antipodean currencies correlating with an upward trend in US yields? Antipodeans going for broke, waiting it out.

Hey Squawk,

Still waiting on this one....

Like charts, yes thinking I prefer kiwi....

U/C Idea ... Let's see the Opening.

Scott see what happens with this one but find it hard to think KIWI would stage a new high against the CAD.

Interesting new figures from Australian households this week. Issue a warning sign for consumerism.

AUSSIES finished last year under increasing mortgage stress, new data has revealed, leading industry figures to warn of a potential increase in home loan defaults in 2018.

Research firm Digital Finance Analytics’ latest mortgage stress and default analysis update estimated more than 921,000 Australian households (29.7 per cent) are under mortgage stress; a rise of more than 10,000 households since November. Meanwhile, 24,000 of those were in severe stress. DFA principal Martin North believes 54,000 households are currently at risk of 30-day debt defaults over the next 12 months.

Making matters tougher, the ratio of household debt to income more than doubled between 1995 and 2015, from 104 per cent to 212 per cent, according to OECD data.

Analysing the research, Louis Velasquez, CEO of specialist lending firm Lucky Money, said a melting pot of rising living costs, stagnant wage growth and the likelihood of future rate rises meant danger was on the horizon for homeowners.

“Australian households facing mortgage stress has risen by nearly 20 per cent in the past six months,” Mr Velasquez said. “This worrying trend means net incomes are not covering ongoing costs in nearly a third of Australian households; that’s up from about 25 per cent in mid-2017.”

US 2 year yields close to overtaking the Aussie 2 year yields. Iron Ore and Aussie both running into strong areas. There is nothing to hold the Aussie up if we get a commodity turn around with the US dollar strength back to the downside. If the Aussie 10 year gets overtaken by the US 10 Year this year and Commodities stall, then you may as well flush the Aussie and the Kiwi down.

As it stands US10 2.661 and Aussie 10Y 2.837. Sustained Breakout of 10y here could push close to 2.85 - 3.00.

The Euro Bund and USD/EUR. Have to wonder how much forward pricing is in the Euro although the Bund looks close to topping and breaking down.

some gu pattern in non random place...

Looks good Scott. In a great area.

You use to be able to trade 2 Year interest differentials.

UJ

a little smaller

apparently not random...

Moving into that long-term area for the NZDCAD. Cad has 1500 pips spread to close with the kiwi at some stage. NZD has a big wall in front of it soon more than any of the other currencies.

NCAD ab cd = 92, shark 9326 basically same zone

1618 of big one gets me same place on your monthly....

some uj from today just 1618's

just in time for ECB

Hard to believe when watching the charts its been on year since Euro Low. Mmmm where did my time go.

Unless market does a backflip on those dismal Kiwi CPI numbers I would say we have our signal on the NC. Like always anything is possible and irrational with the Kiwi

kiwi fly, kiwi die....