Auction Market Value Theory & Analytics

None of them, I trade "condition". I don’t trade changes in "price", I trade changes in "condition". I trade when the market changes from one Condition (bracketing) to another (trend). It's an "event" not a "price". Price changes to satisfy the condition of the market and every price is a result of the condition of the market. Markets are self regulating and driven by Feedback.

Unfortunately, the tenets of Auction Market Value Theory precludes prediction. It is easy to see why. Think of a market that has just experienced a jump in price. Each trader responds in his own way, in his own time frame. This response also appears to all as a change in market behavior, collectively maybe up, maybe down or maybe no change. Each of us individually cannot know what is going to happen because those who are effecting the change by trading are just making up their minds. Until they make up their minds, we cannot know which way it will go
Pasted from <https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...ct#post8675077>

An "event" doesn't exist until it happens……...

I thought that all your effort to make report is to get information at which price to trade and what: buy/sell. now you say none of of information on report tell you that price when you enter buy/sell.
is it all purposes of report to give you information(alert) when condition change? since you don't use chart anymore( my understanding) where do you look to enter trade? thank you.

absolutely killing stuff ....

Where the "event" takes place. No event, no trade..............

TA indicators fail because they all use price & linear "price to price" relationships as a variable to analyze the market, which means there is a basic assumption that all prices are viewed equally.

Unlike AMVT, TA'ists do not view PA as an advertizing mechanism

The problem many market participants have is that they focus too much on price, which is merely the advertising side of the auction process. They demonstrate how price is just a way for the market to seek value. There's an important distinction. Price is not Value.

The Auction Process
The overriding principle behind Auction Market Theory is that all electronically traded markets follow the auction process. We can, of course, extend this principle and say that all transactions that exchange something for something follow the auction process. When you go to the supermarket, you are engaging in the auction process. For example, you go to the freezer section to buy ice cream. You are expecting to pay $3.99 for a half gallon but today you see that there is a sale on ice cream and you can get a half gallon for $3.59. For a split second you wonder why they would put ice cream on sale but you quickly dismiss that thought and put 2 half gallon containers in your shopping cart.

You have just passively participated in an Auction. Maybe the supermarket had too much ice cream; maybe the ice cream was getting close to its expiration date. For whatever reason, the supermarket had to drop the price to a point where it could increase its sales of ice cream. It used price to find a level where it could increase sales. Price became the advertising mechanism for the opportunity for you to buy ice cream. The fluctuation in the price of ice-cream was used to generate feedback.

As is price the advertizing mechanism brokers use to solicit and entice you to facilitate a trade.
Some advertisements are successful and attract new business, while others are unsuccessful, serving to shut down activity. Never the less, Advertisements to generate feedback.

Why would they (drop the price) put ice cream on sale? To look for buyers to increase to volume of ice cream sales. Why does that work? Because consumers know the real value of an item and dropping prices are seen as a Deal. Buying something for less than its actually worth.

Why would a broker start quoting (advertizing) lower prices? Just like the supermarket had to drop the price to a point where it could increase the volume of traders (buyers/sellers) willing to facilitate a trade (essentially to "Make a Market")

Brokers use price quotes to fluctuate among a range of prices to entice many different market participants with many different intents to trade, until enough feedback is generated where perception of value (not price) amongst market participants change, thus changing value.

They are using an advertising mechanism, to make a market. The random fluctuations in the "advertizing mechanism" is not the same thing as the Market being random. The Market is not random, fluctuations in the "advertizing mechanism" are.

The price quote/ticker is just an advertizing mechanism. There's nothing in its movements that describes the longer term condition of the market. A bar chart is just a visual representation of the price quotes/ticker.

On the other hand TA does not see PA as an advertising mechanism.
TA there is an assumption that the "price" being advertised is Fair (value) all prices being created equal.
Therefore a need to chase it. Fixated by PA

Measuring & performing mathematical calculations on the "advertizing mechanism" (Price), is analyzing the movements of the "advertizing mechanism", not the actual value of the Market itself.

Pasted from <https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...ck#post8592374>

In other words, the market facilitates trade from all participants, not with each individual price, but over a large sample size. The fact that participants with different timeframes exist precludes a "price" dominated by one time-frame from being fair value for all
Pasted from <https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...t#post10360857>

Auction markets are complex with many variables (reference points) and there is feedback between reference points.
"Each of the 30 or so reference points in the Value Analytics table have the potential for contributing information about the market's intent. Each reference/variable, by itself, rarely dominates. It is the collective that counts.

Not all reference points are important in any one case. You must learn about each of them and how to discriminate. In some profile teaching the operative word is 'holism', looking into the pot with some 30 or so elements and somehow divining which control the taste today. Value Analytics goes the other way, separating the elements, measuring them and their flow individually and eliminating those that do not apply to the case at hand.Feedback is involved: if your understanding of a particular item (say trade facilitation) is in error and you continually make that error in your market strategy; your error will become apparent to you rather quickly. This illustrates the value of isolating the reference points and examining them individually...."
https://web.archive.org/web/20130902164723/http://cisco-futures.com/amva_background.html

There are 30 or so reference points..each one is a descriptor which carries it's own information. All tools use a set of references. Which references depends on the tool and the trader.
Pasted from <https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...ck#post9383819>

there is feedback/crosstalk and "non-linear" interactions between the reference points, this is the info I use for trading decisions. AMVT isn't a "trading strategy" or a "trading system". It's analysis, the ability to "read market generated info"

An imbalance of prices used by seller vs buyers……. isn't a price or location on the chart
How well the market is facilitating trade …..…..isn't a price or location on the chart.
What was the market attempting to do and how well it did in that attempt……. not a price or a location
Where we are within the market unit, not a price or location
What is the condition of the market……..isn't a price or location on the chart
Volatility…….not a chart location or price
Is the market auctioning , is it picking up speed , slowing,……….etc., etc., etc……………
The info I use for trading decisions, doesn't live on the time series chart.

There are no "linear answers", to describe non-linear data…….in a non-linear environment

in a competitive situation, all decision-making indicators are small and subtle
Pasted from <https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...e#post10645813>

Rather that chase or try to interpret every fluctuation in price. You monitor as large sample of data and monitor it for small and subtle changes over time. You'll see small and subtle changes in the "data" before you see that info reflected on the charts

By the time you see the info reflected on the chart the "event" has past. One of the many reasons pattern recognition fails, by the time you see/recognize a completed pattern, you no longer have an "edge", everyone else sees it too.

Even though pattern recognition doesn't work, 90% of retail traders think it does, they're still heavily competing with each other for the same invalid/misrepresentative prices……..

The data tells me the condition………and the feedback/crosstalk and "non-linear" interactions between the reference points gives me information about the market's intent……..
Your conflating "charting" with "Analysis"

But the biggest problem is that the wannabe traders are working from a faulty premise. The premise is that technical analysis (TA) can "tell one where to trade", i.e. solve the trading equation. Pasted from <https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...482744&page=66>

I didn't think I had to explain that the topic of the thread is about "Auction Market Analysis" and not "Technical Analysis"………..

It is probably easier to understand if you read the OP and take the time to at least read the introductions of the materials generously made available by MzVega:
Value Based Power Trading
http://www.4shared.com/office/IosZ6z...WER_PRINT.html

Mind Over Markets
http://www.4shared.com/office/ivp7jU...r_Markets.html
.
Web archive CISCO-FUTURES
Home page https://web.archive.org/web/20131122143526/http://www.cisco-futures.com/
References https://web.archive.org/web/20151107023956/http://www.ciscofutures.com/References.html
Value Analytics https://web.archive.org/web/20130902181100/http://cisco-futures.com/amva_fs.html
Attached File
https://cdn-assets.forexfactory.net/...attach/pdf.gif Markets.and.market.logic.J.Peter.Steidlmayer.pdf 1.3 MB | 4,696 downloads | Uploaded Dec 8, 2015 8:09pm

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You can't expect to benefit from the beauty of Market Profile and Auction Market theory if you're not willing to do a little bit of homework, in other words, reading the instructions. All it does is waste time and makes MzVega have to re-explain stuff for one reader, stuff covered in earlier posts. .

nzdusd UPDATED

usdchf


usdcad


eurusd


eurgbp...... still holding

eurnzd

I scratched the eurnzd.......however I'm still holding the rest

Very nice trade Mz...so many pairs traded you looking to be more aggressive i;ve noticed

I decided on 2 pairs today EURUSD & USDJPY...

rely on volatility then. After it starts you can certaintly expect it will last for some time, build econometric model based on history to estimate its window. This can be also referred by trend - if it starts don't think it can end now

Thank you for reply. by any means I did not intend to ask you anything about TA. Now I believe that I did not ask right questions or I did not ask questions on right way.

Nah….I was just trying to illustrate a point.....
I'm usually the conservative one……..it takes a lot work managing a handful of trades
Great trades the UJ flew right past my radar

One potential trade today which is CHFJPY

5 10 20 day Bracketing, rotation factor very positive on the 5 and 10 days overlay. Yesterday activity speeding up ..

Hi mzvega, I went through your posts (btw, really good content) which got me interested in taking Don Jones' course, but cisco-futures.com is not maintained any more -- obviously Don's materials from the web site are only available through the Web Archive. I tried to reach Don by the two numbers listed at cisco-futures.com, but they are not in service either...

Could you please share some insight whether Don still offers his SC2 course?

I don't believe so, for several years the SC2 course was posted for free in the "trader training SC2" section on the home page. Each of the 8 sections were for each month of the 8 month course. The course was already posted for free when I first started this thread before they stopped maintaining the site a couple of years ago. They stopped offering the course and posted it for free long before they stopped maintaining the site. VBPT was the text book for the course and the info in each section of the course was found in the references & background…………….

Hi mzvega, thank you for the insight. Looks like the only option is to study the textbook, though it probably doesn't cover some of the SC2 methods and techniques...

Isn't it just terrible that possibly the only piece of wisdom/rigorous methodology ever available to the retail crowd is lost, and everything else is mostly crap?
I mean, the VBPT and site materials are still there, but the tools and the framework are gone...

2 typical trades here with basic analytics. Long for USDCHF and short for EURUSD from 5 day bracket.

USDCHF......



EURUSD......

Hi All,

I just wanted to say this is hands down the best thread I have ever seen, the information here is just fantastic.
Thanks to all those that have shared their knowledge on this topic.
I am starting from the beginning of the thread, I have a lot of reading to do...looks like I'm also going to have to learn SQL and R from what I have read so far.

Thanks again to all those involved in this thread!

Cheers
Ian

Hi All,

I said that I would upload a PDF with all the articles from the Cisco Website. Well, here it is. I am sorry that it took so long but I have been busy with other things recently.

As I mentioned before if you realize that something is missing please let me know, so that I or someone else can update the file.

Unfortunately, I can not upload the file directly to FF due to the size. You can download the PDF here: https://ufile.io/52i96

Notice that I am not a registered user with the storage provider so the file will be deleted after 30 days. Should someone miss it, just shoot me a message and I will upload it again.

Best wishes to all of you.

PS: It also contains the resources from the SC2 course mentioned a few posts earlier.