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EURUSD

  • #1,140,081
  • Jan 21, 2018 1:10am Jan 21, 2018 1:10am
Gaps usually occur because of some unexpected news. There is no surprise in this as the outcome was quite expected. The overall short term affects to the US economy are minor. Having museums and public parks closed is not a big deal. All functions important to the society, such as border control and air traffic are working normally.

This is just political theater and actually quite normal in USA. There is also a very good chance that the issue will be resolved during the weekend.
  • #1,140,082
  • Jan 21, 2018 7:02am Jan 21, 2018 7:02am
What happened during the last US government shutdown?
i attached a screenshot of the EUR/USD market during the OBAMA Govt. shutdown during 2013 at October.
That time the shutdown continued for 16 days.

Waht will happen this time?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD2013SHUTDOWN.png Size: 142 KB
  • #1,140,083
  • Jan 21, 2018 8:14am Jan 21, 2018 8:14am
Quoting RahimaMotale
What happened during the last US government shutdown? i attached a screenshot of the EUR/USD market during the OBAMA Govt. shutdown during 2013 at October. That time the shutdown continued for 16 days. Waht will happen this time? {image}

Hello RahimaMotals,

A legitimate question that anyone can answer, but with a 50% chance, will be wrong.

From 1977 to today, there were 17 shutdowns in the US, which lasted an average of 6 days. Every time the market has behaved differently. Because we always have to deal with 2 different markets in a currency pair. In the case of EURUSD with the euro and the dollar. Crucial for this is the respective monetary strength of the euro against the dollar. But the other currency strengths also play an important role. If the dollar is weak but rises against the euro, it means the euro is even weaker.

I warn against making a derivation for the shutdowns. Normally, the EURUSD should rise in such a case, but here in Germany there is currently a problem with the formation of a government. Which problem is more important to influence the currency strength? Traders will decide on this from tonight and tomorrow.

There were 17 shutdowns, but the US still exists and it has a big weight in the global economy.
Do not draw specific conclusions from the past for the future. That would be like analyzing the powerball and assuming that after the number 10, the number 11 will have to come, just because that has happened a few times in the past.

Look at the price chart. There, the big players leave their mark. They have to learn to read, then you guess where the market could go.

I invite you to learn more about the POC in our blog.

Best regards
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
  • #1,140,084
  • Jan 21, 2018 8:19am Jan 21, 2018 8:19am
Bullish on the Euro, looks like the USD is taken by the bears.
  • #1,140,085
  • Edited 10:13am Jan 21, 2018 9:47am | Edited 10:13am
Quoting RahimaMotale
What happened during the last US government shutdown? i attached a screenshot of the EUR/USD market during the OBAMA Govt. shutdown during 2013 at October. That time the shutdown continued for 16 days. Waht will happen this time? {image}
I have absolutely no idea about this. If I was a swing trader I'd be long and hold for at least six months but I'm not so will just trade whatever price tells me on Monday. I won't give the shutdown a second thought after I've drawn the lines on the chart.
  • #1,140,086
  • Jan 21, 2018 11:10am Jan 21, 2018 11:10am
Quoting Bionics
{quote} Hello RahimaMotals, A legitimate question that anyone can answer, but with a 50% chance, will be wrong. From 1977 to today, there were 17 shutdowns in the US, which lasted an average of 6 days. Every time the market has behaved differently. Because we always have to deal with 2 different markets in a currency pair. In the case of EURUSD with the euro and the dollar. Crucial for this is the respective monetary strength of the euro against the dollar. But the other currency strengths also play an important role. If the dollar is weak but rises...
Please give me the link.
  • #1,140,087
  • Jan 21, 2018 11:25am Jan 21, 2018 11:25am
Quoting RahimaMotale
{quote} Please give me the link.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=727775
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
  • #1,140,088
  • Jan 21, 2018 12:35pm Jan 21, 2018 12:35pm
Gapped up. Opened slightly above 1.2270
  • #1,140,089
  • Jan 21, 2018 2:06pm Jan 21, 2018 2:06pm
Quoting loonie-tunes
Gapped up. Opened slightly above 1.2270
with a gov shut down, it will only keep going up though, it is still not there yet; just wait till asia market open and us market open; traders will rush to push this even higher.
  • #1,140,090
  • Jan 21, 2018 3:13pm Jan 21, 2018 3:13pm
Early days but 1.2228 is likely to be my short target when Asia opens and short confirmation received.
  • #1,140,091
  • Jan 21, 2018 3:34pm Jan 21, 2018 3:34pm
Even though the major technical outlook on the EURUSD is northward, we may expect a bearish mode in the early part of this week. Here's a top-down technical perspective to consider.

EURUSD has been on the upward mode for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, price action on the pair has entered a resistance zone around the 1.23420 area. Last week, the candlestick printed on the weekly time frame was ambivalent, but bears became influential by the close of session. We may expect bears to push price action southward in the early part of the week. A sideways operation is also a possibility given that price action is in a resistance zone that was last traversed southward in December 2014.

On the H4 time frame, recent price action has been operating within an ascending channel (bound by purple coloured lines) after some topping pattern. A breach of the channel to the south is much likely in the offing as price action in the latter part of last week saw bears strongly influential. A breach of channel support is likely to see bears target the ascending trendline (chocolate) below the channel or the minor support around the 1.20700 area. Such a move is very likely to be a corrective one as the market mode favours the bulls.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_21_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 38 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_21_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 40 KB
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,140,092
  • Jan 21, 2018 4:17pm Jan 21, 2018 4:17pm
Taken. Risking 0.003%.

I'll save the Klingon trading for London open.

In truth if it hits my TP, price will probably continue to 2175 so I've adjusted my TP accordingly.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,140,093
  • Jan 21, 2018 4:33pm Jan 21, 2018 4:33pm
US Government shuts down- USD remain crashing
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -77.5%
  • #1,140,094
  • Jan 21, 2018 4:41pm Jan 21, 2018 4:41pm
Quoting 9jatrader
US Government shuts down- USD remains crashing
Now? Tomorrow? The day after? etc etc

I'm a day trader, I have a pip quota to meet so can't be sat around waiting in case this or that happens. If price says up, I'm long...if price says down...I'm short.
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Need 2255 to be taken out for more downside.
  • #1,140,095
  • Jan 21, 2018 4:51pm Jan 21, 2018 4:51pm
Quoting mbrown
{quote} Now? Tomorrow? The day after? etc etc I'm a day trader, I have a pip quota to meet so can't be sat around waiting in case this or that happens. If price says up, I'm long...if price says down...I'm short. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Need 2255 to be taken out for more downside.
+ 1
  • #1,140,096
  • Jan 21, 2018 4:51pm Jan 21, 2018 4:51pm
Quoting mbrown
{quote} Now? Tomorrow? The day after? etc etc I'm a day trader, I have a pip quota to meet so can't be sat around waiting in case this or that happens. If price says up, I'm long...if price says down...I'm short. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Need 2255 to be taken out for more downside.
Day trading ok. For swing traders we have to hold on USD bears which was already in place till negotiations give further direction
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -77.5%
  • #1,140,097
  • Edited 5:03pm Jan 21, 2018 4:51pm | Edited 5:03pm
Quoting 9jatrader
{quote} Day trading ok. For swing traders we have to hold on USD bears which was already in place till negotiations give further direction
If I was a swing trader I'd be long for sure.
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I should have hedged at 2255 then sold on the slight pull back (which was likely to occur) to cover the cost of the initial stop-loss in case I'm stopped out. Lesson learnt.
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Can't hedge now though the bounce is only a one time offer...probability wise. Need 2255 to be taken for more downside.
  • #1,140,098
  • Jan 21, 2018 4:56pm Jan 21, 2018 4:56pm
Quoting mbrown
{quote} If I was a swing trader I'd be long for sure.
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -77.5%
  • #1,140,099
  • Jan 21, 2018 5:01pm Jan 21, 2018 5:01pm
don't jump the gun just yet

still remains to be seen what the USD reaction to the gov shutdown will be
  • #1,140,100
  • Jan 21, 2018 5:05pm Jan 21, 2018 5:05pm
Quoting MXT
don't jump the gun just yet still remains to be seen what the USD reaction to the gov shutdown will be
Swing traders have long and strong rope to escape with their profit in their long positions when the US politicians decisions decide otherwise
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -77.5%
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