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  • #9,781
  • Jan 19, 2018 5:46pm Jan 19, 2018 5:46pm
Finished the 4h forecast addition. The new back-end has already paid off, expansion was a breeze.
The EURUSD still has a single bear in the forecast, pretty neutral though, so we'll see what the early session on Monday has to offer.

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When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #9,782
  • Jan 20, 2018 1:00am Jan 20, 2018 1:00am
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do not follow me 99.9999999% of times, rest you can lol
  • #9,783
  • Jan 20, 2018 1:29am Jan 20, 2018 1:29am
Really interested to see what will happen at the market open. US government shutdown is now in effect (the shutdown in 2013 caused $ weakness for the first few days before a rebound), and we have the SPD party in Germany voting on Sunday whether or not to form a coalition. Could be a bumpy ride!
  • #9,784
  • Jan 20, 2018 1:49am Jan 20, 2018 1:49am
next week should be bearish, and if not expect 300 pip run up side.
  • #9,785
  • Jan 20, 2018 1:56am Jan 20, 2018 1:56am
Quoting Stillearnin
{quote} I disliked your post when it had one line but i did undo it now because i can understand your thinking. I still can't agree with it because having a let's say 75% chance to win trade can mean you can still go busto. I'm not a math expert but i think over a 10000 trade sample you can lose a trade 16 times in a row (while having 75% winrate proven) and lose your mind along with it. Would be great to know what the max deviation for a sample of 10000 trades really is with 75% winrate is. Anyway i can understand your thinking and wish you and...
Studies around win rate prove nothing.. it is about "what amount of $ you are winning compared to what amount of $ you are losing.. for example think of two people: person A and person B

Trades of A: 6
Winners: 2
Losers: 4
Trade 1: Loss 10 pips
Trade 2: Win 120 pips
Trade 3: Loss 10 pips
Trade 4: Loss 10 pips
Trade 5: Loss 10 pips
Trade 6: Win 75 pips
Total: +155 pips profit

Trades of B: 6
Trade 1: Loss: 35 pips
Trade 2: Loss 20 pips
Trade 3: Win 15 pips
Trade 4: Loss 45 pips
Trade 5: Loss 35 pips
Trade 6: Win 15 pips
Total: -105 pips loss

Both persons have the same win rate.. the key is the profit factor..

In other words: In the business and INVESTING world the most important thing is to "having good knowledge about the field you are investing in" and "money management"

Gambling: Even if you know everything you have zero effect on outcome

Trading/Investing/Business: Even with little knowledge the results start improving on your behalf.

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #9,786
  • Jan 20, 2018 2:00am Jan 20, 2018 2:00am
Quoting 0toinfinity
next week should be bearish, and if not expect 300 pip run up side.
I agree on the 300pip UP run.. Will change my mind soon as 1.2195 is clearly broken on the daily
  • #9,787
  • Jan 20, 2018 2:03am Jan 20, 2018 2:03am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Studies around win rate prove nothing.. it is about "what amount of $ you are winning compared to what amount of $ you are losing.. for example think of two people: person A and person B Trades of A: 6 Winners: 2 Losers: 4 Trade 1: Loss 10 pips Trade 2: Win 120 pips Trade 3: Loss 10 pips Trade 4: Loss 10 pips Trade 5: Loss 10 pips Trade 6: Win 75 pips Total: +155 pips profit Trades of B: 6 Trade 1: Loss: 35 pips Trade 2: Loss 20 pips Trade 3: Win 15 pips Trade 4: Loss 45 pips Trade 5: Loss 35 pips Trade 6: Win 15 pips Total: -105 pips loss...
Good Post, Many years ago I did the Steve Nison candlestick FX course and I always remember a statement Steve made during the course about his time on Wall Street and that being that he had one of the worst win rates but was one of the most profitable traders in the firm at that time, reason, lots of small losses but the winners were big hence win ratio is not the be all and end all. At the end of the day week month year or however you want to quantify your results, if you make a profit then you are ahead of the game (provided it was not through some ridiculous one off trade but rather sound money/risk management along with some consistency in trade selection.

BTW, am enjoying this thread immensely, good luck to all!
maahome
  • #9,788
  • Jan 20, 2018 2:19am Jan 20, 2018 2:19am
Hi People

Will the US government shutdown affect high impact news on the USD the next 16 days?

Thank you
  • #9,789
  • Jan 20, 2018 2:35am Jan 20, 2018 2:35am
Quoting 0toinfinity
next week should be bearish, and if not expect 300 pip run up side.
I don't think bearish. Not after gov shutdown.
I think we will have an open with a bullish gap.
MAKE IT RAIN
  • #9,790
  • Jan 20, 2018 2:41am Jan 20, 2018 2:41am
I think it depends on the outcome of the Germany coalitions talks as well....If Germany fails to muster up a grand coalition between the two parties and the government stays shut it could stay in consolidation.....If Germany gets their coalition it could take off to the moon.....

I just hope that Germany fails with the coalition, and the US is reopened by Monday morning...PLEASE lol.

Looking at the graph from the previous shutdown (Oct 1st - 16th, 2013) the Euro did not really take off until the government was reopened (Oct 17th 2013)

Quoting mihai1986
{quote} I don't think bearish. Not after gov shutdown. I think we will have an open with a bullish gap.
  • #9,791
  • Jan 20, 2018 2:59am Jan 20, 2018 2:59am
Intradayers, scalpers, and swingers on mid timeframes will likely have the bulls and bears on their sides depending on what signal current you get, but long term its bulls trip long and long...my 2cents contribution.

plenty pips to all ahead!
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Follow the Flow and Grow
  • #9,792
  • Jan 20, 2018 4:52am Jan 20, 2018 4:52am
Quoting jusstin911
{quote} I agree on the 300pip UP run.. Will change my mind soon as 1.2195 is clearly broken on the daily
This looks pretty solid to me. 1.2275 retest is not that great, still they should have enough gas for a lower low first. What's the reason for long?
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  • #9,793
  • Jan 20, 2018 7:48am Jan 20, 2018 7:48am
Quoting Stillearnin
{quote} This looks pretty solid to me. 1.2275 retest is not that great, still they should have enough gas for a lower low first. What's the reason for long? {image}
Well, I try to find levels that I can use as a bridge.. in this case, I have 1.2195. long as price stays above it, 1.26 and 1.29 possible.. big bearish moves as well if it starts trading below it (at least daily candles)...

Second reason would be the US gov. shutdown http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-42757091 ..... etc... I think this pretty much explains itself (USD Chart clearly shows that the $ got hit just after TRUMP..so until he's out of office, the $ may remain admitted) it's a Dollar planet

So with weekly and daily TF above 1.2195 + US shutdown, I would like to stay on the bull side till otherwise...

Cheers bro
  • #9,794
  • Jan 20, 2018 7:59am Jan 20, 2018 7:59am
I am more on a bullside at this moment.
  • #9,795
  • Jan 20, 2018 8:12am Jan 20, 2018 8:12am
Quoting KingGeorge
Hi People Will the US government shutdown affect high impact news on the USD the next 16 days? Thank you

I'm worried about it too. I have some short open positions. And probably we will face a gap tomorrow.
  • #9,796
  • Jan 20, 2018 8:13am Jan 20, 2018 8:13am
The major USD pairs -- EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD -- all have nice down pin bars on the daily or weekly. This suggests that the USD is about to take off upward. Since everyone thinks it is going to tank because of the US government shutdown, this usually means it will take off in the opposite direction...
  • #9,797
  • Jan 20, 2018 8:25am Jan 20, 2018 8:25am
Quoting de5151
The major USD pairs -- EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD -- all have nice down pin bars on the daily or weekly. This suggests that the USD is about to take off upward. Since everyone thinks it is going to tank because of the US government shutdown, this usually means it will take off in the opposite direction...
NET positions are SHORTS on EU... So they actually have enough reason to send higher..
But we'll always trade what we see.. when we predict, we are only speculating
  • #9,798
  • Jan 20, 2018 8:32am Jan 20, 2018 8:32am
What i see!? Is interesting level im watcing for brekout, if manages to break thru these level 1.22000, i will look at my interest area valleys on right..
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  • #9,799
  • Jan 20, 2018 8:52am Jan 20, 2018 8:52am
Quoting mizi123
What i see!? Is interesting level im watcing for brekout, if manages to break thru these level 1.22000, i will look at my interest area valleys on right.. {image}
I'm more bias towards your analysis for a down ward movement, the us senate and news is having problems but that doesn't change the fact that to buy something your need sellers first. watching it closely to see what the news will do on the USD but I agree with your analysis.

Holding thumbs and if it breach my sell will be on.
  • #9,800
  • Jan 20, 2018 9:44am Jan 20, 2018 9:44am
Hourly Chart - Quick Outlook

  1. My bias is still bullish (as long as the support zone between 1.2175 to 1.2202 holds. I am not assuming anything. First want to see how candles develop inside that zone and then depending on progress I will prepare a potential buy setup. I must see enough support strength there.
  2. If support holds price above 1.2202, then I expect some resistance starting from 1.2227 up until 1.2250 area. If bulls can break the pennant shaped triangle from the upper edge 1.2250 level we can expect higher levels.
  3. But..... if bears break 1.2175 level support, all of above will be invalid and we must switch quickly to bearish and look for sell setups.

My half cents...

Stay Green

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Focus only on what truly matters!
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