my weekly charts has room for upside.
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- #9,802
- Jan 20, 2018 10:35am Jan 20, 2018 10:35am
- | Joined Apr 2017 | Status: 38737526 / 29052019 | 1,245 Posts
Market is not random but unpredictable
Hourly Chart - Quick Outlook My bias is still bullish (as long as the support zone between 1.2175 to 1.2202 holds. I am not assuming anything. First want to see how candles develop inside that zone and then depending on progress I will prepare a potential buy setup. I must see enough support strength there. If support holds price above 1.2202, then I expect some resistance starting from 1.2227 up until 1.2250 area. If bulls can break the pennant shaped triangle from the upper edge 1.2250 level we can expect higher levels. But..... if bears break...
So I will share my outlook and why I think it will go that way but for the most part i believe that both mizi 123 and ata has valid analysis.
I am a price action trader, I don't use indicators (I don't like them).
I am a 240/60 trader so i don't look at the other time frames at all. (only 15min in for entry and nothing else )
At no point do I see this as being a reversal in the market the bulls are still in control.
I don't like to trade news so I might not even give this a go at all. But news will play an important factor in this trade.
On my 4 hour
1. I made my first comment for sell on the preparation of the V - Formation and had a sell order in at the top of the wick. made some profit there but took profit
@ purple 2
2. Probe below Purple 2 was concerning but still small sell potential with that pullback I currently seeing this market as a range within purple 1 and 2
3. Current Market another V formation indicating sell if the pullback survives. I WILL NOT sell this because it is too close to my purple 2. I will wait for the pullback to purple 1 and see if it gets rejected.
4. If it breaches Purple 2 I will then watch my dotted line carefully because I know that the range could fake out again.
5. If it doesn't fake out and make a lower low i will watch my block area carefully because there is a S&D there. I am thinking the bulls should kick in from that zone. But if that zone fails. then I am all for Mizi 123's analysis on the condition that the bears break purple 3.
I'm hoping to get your feedback on this because knowledge is everything in forex.
Disclaimer: As I said in the beginning of my post I am a novice and you should take everything I say with a bag of salt. Also be kind when burning me.
- #9,805
- Jan 20, 2018 3:43pm Jan 20, 2018 3:43pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Reading the TAPE | 2,389 Posts
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
- #9,806
- Jan 21, 2018 12:09am Jan 21, 2018 12:09am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: enjoying life | 23,842 Posts
- #9,808
- Jan 21, 2018 3:52am Jan 21, 2018 3:52am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,096 Posts
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #9,809
- Edited 4:57am Jan 21, 2018 4:34am | Edited 4:57am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,096 Posts
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #9,813
- Jan 21, 2018 5:26am Jan 21, 2018 5:26am
- Joined Jun 2015 | Status: Trader | 14,961 Posts
Ata,
You're a prominent feature in FF and it's marketing strategy!!!
Here
https://www.forexfactory.com/website
Good job buddy!!!
Though some mindless people are pictured in the left side too
You're a prominent feature in FF and it's marketing strategy!!!
Here
https://www.forexfactory.com/website
Good job buddy!!!
Though some mindless people are pictured in the left side too
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors. 
- #9,815
- Jan 21, 2018 6:50am Jan 21, 2018 6:50am
- Joined Dec 2005 | Status: Trader | 2,857 Posts
Thought I let you know.. Currently there is an extraordinary debate from the German social democrats on the possible coalition talks with Merkels CDU (I am watching it live). And it seems like they are going to vote with NO this afternoon. This would be a huge blow for a possibility of forming a new German government. The results of the vote will be final around 4 or 5 pm UTC.
...... and then form a coalition government just as well for the sake of the nation and the sake of Euroland ...
- #9,816
- Jan 21, 2018 6:56am Jan 21, 2018 6:56am
{quote} they could vote NO just for political posturing and to save the face .... ...... and then form a coalition government just as well for the sake of the nation and the sake of Euroland ...
It would lead to a very uncertain near to midterm future imho .. still no decision at this point to be fair. But comparing the applaus from speakers defending the coalition talks to the ones who want to end it is pretty clearly.
- #9,817
- Jan 21, 2018 7:21am Jan 21, 2018 7:21am
- Joined Dec 2005 | Status: Trader | 2,857 Posts
{quote} Not going to happen. This vote is obligatory! It is no "recommendation" event. It would lead to a very uncertain near to midterm future imho .. still no decision at this point to be fair. But comparing the applaus from speakers defending the coalition talks to the ones who want to end it is pretty clearly.
they've used 4 months of talks already without being able to form a coalition government , they can use another 3 and kick the can down the road
we'll see , but i doubt that the German president would allow a new round of elections to take place without trying to have at the very least an "institutional" political coalition government being formed - that's the way European politics works
just imho
- #9,818
- Jan 21, 2018 7:35am Jan 21, 2018 7:35am
{quote} mandatory and politics do not fit well in the same sentence they've used 4 months of talks already without being able to form a coalition government , they can use another 3 and kick the can down the road we'll see , but i doubt that the German president would allow a new round of elections to take place without trying to have at the very least an "institutional" political coalition government being formed - that's the way European politics works just imho
But while the debates and negotiations were done by party elite and ministers up to this point, the vote now includes the base of the party (for the first time) which never had the chance of direct influence on the whole process until now. That's the main difference on the issue at this point.
But yeah, speculations will end in two or three hours. Let's see.
In case of a no at the vote a new round of elections is not the forced consequence. A minority government may be something interesting as well. But an urgent uncertainty would be present for at least some more days or weeks and I think a short term EURUSD impact should be expected at least. And that's why most of us are here.
- #9,819
- Jan 21, 2018 7:39am Jan 21, 2018 7:39am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,096 Posts
Ata, You're a prominent feature in FF and it's marketing strategy!!! Here
Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #9,820
- Jan 21, 2018 8:14am Jan 21, 2018 8:14am
- Joined Dec 2005 | Status: Trader | 2,857 Posts
{quote} In case of a no at the vote a new round of elections is not the forced consequence. A minority government may be something interesting as well
on a totally different level , just take a look at what's going on with the US gov shutdown : they basically find no way of agreeing on DACA , and the US gov shuts down with the house , the senate and the presidency controlled by the GOP
a tiny minority is holding sway