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Never Go Against the Trend?

  • #21
  • Jan 16, 2018 1:21am Jan 16, 2018 1:21am
Just need to remember to Buy Low and Sell High that is the key.
  • #22
  • Edited 5:07am Jan 16, 2018 4:41am | Edited 5:07am
I agree that everybody have different definitions on what trend means. And most times when someone talks about trend i dont think anyone knows what kind of trend is being talked about.
This is what I have been taught:
-Short term trend is found from daily chart and maybe H4.
-Intermediate trend is found on weekly chart.
-Major trend is found on monthly chart. This is the real trend.

And then how do you know what a trend is? As far as i know an uptrend makes higher highs and higher lows. A down trend makes lower lows and lower highs.

Here is some good information for those who are interested:
https://www.tradeciety.com/how-to-kn...-of-the-trend/
https://www.tradeciety.com/lesson/ho...end-direction/
https://www.tradeciety.com/how-to-kn...ngth-of-trend/
https://www.tradeciety.com/lesson/ma...rend-vs-range/
  • #23
  • Jan 16, 2018 5:17am Jan 16, 2018 5:17am
Quoting Sywa
Just need to remember to Buy Low and Sell High that is the key.
If only it was that simple. EU has crushed every High the last 4 months.
The Earth is flat!
  • #24
  • Jan 16, 2018 5:49am Jan 16, 2018 5:49am
With a good experience, in the right situations, you could trade against the trend with 60% of winning ratio.Beginners are always advised to invest in the trending movements, but once you gain some experience, it will be easier for you to contemplate the situation against the trend.
  • #25
  • Jan 16, 2018 9:48am Jan 16, 2018 9:48am
You should never go against the trend when the market is trending.

You can go with the trend or against the trend when market is ranging.

Is it HH-HL or LH-LL (trend) or is it HH-LL (range) in the time frame(s) you are trading?

The key is knowing what the market is doing. Don't ever have a bias because you have a position in the market. Your position may be wrong and you need to reassess or get out. For new traders, I would suggest get out until you have learned to be impartial in the market.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #26
  • Jan 17, 2018 2:55am Jan 17, 2018 2:55am
Quoting Tfh
{quote} If only it was that simple. EU has crushed every High the last 4 months.
but then again, there a no such thing as too low or too high in Forex, there will be a higher high, or lower low.. but still the saying is still applicable.. buy Low and Sell High, just need to found out The right moment..

I'm never saying it was Easy ...
  • #27
  • Jan 17, 2018 2:56am Jan 17, 2018 2:56am
Quoting newbegger
You should never go against the trend when the market is trending. You can go with the trend or against the trend when market is ranging. Is it HH-HL or LH-LL (trend) or is it HH-LL (range) in the time frame(s) you are trading? The key is knowing what the market is doing. Don't ever have a bias because you have a position in the market. Your position may be wrong and you need to reassess or get out. For new traders, I would suggest get out until you have learned to be impartial in the market.

Who said? IF you read price action properly, you'll be able to pick out banking levels to the point for a reversal, or Supply & Demand, or Orderblocks.
Advanced Price Action Trader -MY STUFF IS FREE! JOIN ME!
  • #28
  • Jan 17, 2018 3:27am Jan 17, 2018 3:27am
FxCyborg,

Where can one educate themselves on reading/interpreting banking levels for reversal, supply/demand or orderblocks?

Thank you
  • #29
  • Jan 17, 2018 8:28am Jan 17, 2018 8:28am
the way i see it:

buy low and sell high when market is ranging.

buy high and sell higher when market is trending.
  • #30
  • Jan 17, 2018 8:58am Jan 17, 2018 8:58am
Quoting Rafaz1
FxCyborg, Where can one educate themselves on reading/interpreting banking levels for reversal, supply/demand or orderblocks? Thank you
I found some articles on google. type "banking levels forex"
  • #31
  • Jan 17, 2018 10:24am Jan 17, 2018 10:24am
Quoting FXCyborg
{quote} Who said? IF you read price action properly, you'll be able to pick out banking levels to the point for a reversal, or Supply & Demand, or Orderblocks.
I said. Maybe my wording should have been how I trade so where you see "you", change it to "I" or "me".

I have previously tried trading like that ICT guy, but I found my mind is not wired that way, to buy into weakness or selling into strength. Too many ghosts in my head of my previous failures around picking tops and bottoms. I like the ICT guys style but I wait to confirm. I am more risk adverse these days.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #32
  • Jan 17, 2018 10:30am Jan 17, 2018 10:30am
Quoting Rafaz1
FxCyborg, Where can one educate themselves on reading/interpreting banking levels for reversal, supply/demand or orderblocks? Thank you
There are others who teach the order blocks trading style. ICT used to have free videos on the website, now looks like you have to pay for them. Still he puts a lot free on youtube

https://www.youtube.com/user/InnerCircleTrader
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #33
  • Feb 27, 2018 11:18pm Feb 27, 2018 11:18pm
Quoting newbegger
{quote} There are others who teach the order blocks trading style. ICT used to have free videos on the website, now looks like you have to pay for them. Still he puts a lot free on youtube https://www.youtube.com/user/InnerCircleTrader
Is this YouTube channel is about any specific trading system? Or anything else?
  • #34
  • Feb 28, 2018 5:16am Feb 28, 2018 5:16am
Quoting Torontoman
Does this mean that the probability is that I will lose money going against the trend? If that is true is my expected value is positive if I go with the trend whatever trade I make? Do you get my point? If my expected value is negative if I go against the trend, it is positive if I go with it! OR It does not matter if you go with the trend. There are no trends. All trades are 50/50 chance of profit!
//-----

hey torontoman...... for me, there is no doubt in my mind the trend does matter.......

for me, expected value when trading with the trend is positive....

for me, expected value when trading against the trend is negative.....

for me, the time required for a trend trade to close is short....

for me, the time required for a counter trend trade is long..... hence 'opportunity cost'......

i've written indicators and ea's that prove this beyond any doubt......

trading with the trend it's possible for thousands of winning trades in a row, my max is over 2000 in a row...... before anyone hollers foul, remember my explorers tend to be forex factory public...... max wins in a row is part of that report......

trend trading is probably just as hard or harder than any other of the millions of methods of trading...... but it's the only method that works for me......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #35
  • Feb 28, 2018 8:02am Feb 28, 2018 8:02am
I wouldn't say trading against the trend is necessarily a bad thing or methodology. I think the more important thing to keep in mind and what you should know before even entering any market is what the actual trend is. If you're uncertain, then you stay out. If you decide to trade against the trend, just be very wary and be ready to exit ASAP. You definitely want to scale down the risk and position. If i were new and just learning to trade, I just wouldn't get into the counter trend trading yet. There's less margin for error if you're on the wrong side of the trade, and you cold always counter trend trade later.

A significant high, like a daily or weekly high or low is where I place my stops. If those levels are breached that'll tell me whether the trend is alive and well and the risk to stay in a trade elevates. The only thing that still is a challenge and will probably always be difficult to access is when the market consolidates in a large range, like GBP/JPY often does, or EUR/JPY. It's easy to get faked out thinking there's a reversal in the pair. The really disciplined traders just take the loss and don't get phased by it, but that's the most difficult thing to learn.
  • #36
  • Feb 28, 2018 9:01am Feb 28, 2018 9:01am
Obviously we all see two trends on many charts - short-term and long-term. Trade long-term with the long-term trend and short-term with the short-term trend.

But its not just a matter of avoiding excessive risk of capital loss, opportunity loss must also be considered. Trading with a long-term trend allows you to add to winners, and getting stopped out just allows you to re-position to re-enter if the trend is resumed (though ideally you would only be stopped out if the trend is broken).

Trading with a short-term trend encourages over-trading, cutting winners and eliminates much of the opportunity to pyramid. Getting money in the bank early is a way amateurs go broke.
  • #37
  • Feb 28, 2018 9:13am Feb 28, 2018 9:13am
There is a market analysis. The definition of a regular motion is nothing more than an auxiliary information for analytics.
Listen, trade against the trend, trade on the trend and even in flat if it brings you money.
When you go for a walk, the direction of your movement does not depend on where the wind is blowing.
Dont hurry in three situations: marriage, sex, trade.
  • #38
  • Feb 28, 2018 9:42am Feb 28, 2018 9:42am
Quoting Torontoman
Thanks for for your comments. I’m still in the study stage. I’m trading with real money, but very small amounts. I want a positive expected value of my trades. For example, if I want to make 30 pips, I may want to look at the 15 minute chart. RR 1:1. People say that if it’s sloping down, don’t buy. Does that mean selling will profit me more than 50.1% of the time? Do you see my point? {quote}
Hi,
The problem with trends is defining them. You can look at a counter trend move as a trend in itself, just a bit smaller than the other trend the other way that preceded it. And then there are lots of ways, technically speaking, of defining exactly what a trend is. You can really tie yourself up in knots on this.

If it might help, I try to think about it not so much as the trend but the path of least resistance from now. I look at a chart and ask, which do I think is the most likely direction for the next X points of net move? You can incorporate any patterns/indicators/whatever you want in this, just answer that basic question. That then gives me the scenario & direction I want to trade; then I go looking for an entry point and subsequent exit possibilities (stop loss & profit take) to give me a complete trade plan before I hit the deal button. If your judgements on balance are better than random you will have positive expectancy.
  • #39
  • Feb 28, 2018 10:20am Feb 28, 2018 10:20am
Quoting Flash22
There is a market analysis. The definition of a regular motion is nothing more than an auxiliary information for analytics. Listen, trade against the trend, trade on the trend and even in flat if it brings you money. When you go for a walk, the direction of your movement does not depend on where the wind is blowing.

Isn't it easier walking downhill than up? And if the whole crowd is walking north, isn't it going to be hard and uncomfortable walking south? And when the blizzard and a gale are in your face, isn't it more sensible to turn your back on it and go with it? But this is all bullshit about walking, we're trading not walking.

So, with regards trading, entering with the trend (i.e. the trend for your desired time horizon) means you do not have to be so critical about entry price. This means you can set an order where price will confirm your analysis, giving you one more piece of evidence. This means you will not so often set a price or an entry order and have price miss it so that you miss the move that follows.

Trends of all patterns most commonly continue. Other types of chart patterns such as H&S, triangles, wedges, double bottoms etc. have inherent targets after which the majority of them will fail. Obviously trends also fail but they don't have an inherent end point, so they tend to continue for extended periods.

But what I like most of all about trends is the opportunity to pyramid and increase your r:r parabolically. This is not a feature of a counter-trend and/or short-term move and certainly doesn't work in a range.
  • #40
  • Feb 28, 2018 10:48am Feb 28, 2018 10:48am
Trading is relative, probably one of the great lessons you can learn. Trend is relative to how you define/quantify it whether it be structure, MAs, TLs, HH/HL etc. Keep in mind, your "trend" may just be the pullback of a greater "trend" and that greater "trend" may just be a pullback in the greater greater "trend". See what I mean. So buyiny/selling tops and bottoms is often just buying/selling deep pullbacks that you're not aware of.
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