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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #35,501
  • Jan 15, 2018 5:45am Jan 15, 2018 5:45am
Quoting parviz1953
Hi: Once more i want to try predicting the next week price movement of EURUSD H4 . What we can see in the picture is two AB=CD pattern, inside each other and a bullish trend channel . The smaller ab=cd ,has already reached its d point at >141.4% fib projection, and price has broken the upper trend line boundary. From here we may expect a correction: 1)Either down to the retest of trend line and then continuing upward to complete the larger AB=CD. 2)Or Going even more down, breaking the 1.2020 level, forming a NSL , which in this case , i expect...

Hi Parviz,
I have a quick question regarding where you have drawn your EURUSD larger AB leg from/to on the H4 chart. On my attached chart I have marked with white letters an AB=CD pattern which seems to have already completed. The red letters are where you have drawn your AB=CD. Have you drawn your AB leg on what I have as a CD leg because the original pattern has completed and you are just moving along to the right for the next possible AB=CD pattern or is the AB=CD I have marked in white wrong in some way? Any help with answering this is much appreciated.

Also just wanted to say I have been following this thread for a little while, watching the videos and reading the thread and as this is my first post here I wanted to say a big thank you to Damian and all others here. The information has been a huge help to me.
Many thanks

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  • #35,502
  • Jan 15, 2018 6:07am Jan 15, 2018 6:07am
-5,9
+10
explanation on the chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Luck is when opportunity meets preparation"
  • #35,503
  • Jan 15, 2018 6:12am Jan 15, 2018 6:12am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Luck is when opportunity meets preparation"
  • #35,504
  • Jan 15, 2018 6:57am Jan 15, 2018 6:57am
This is what happens when you protect too early.
Protected to BE right before the bear candle appeared.

The reason I protected a bit earlier is because I initially expected price to correct into 152.27 area.
I was afraid the bears could still push price down and take my SL.

I must admit this hurts. But it's my own fault.
Trust your analysis and stick with it...

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  • #35,505
  • Jan 15, 2018 7:57am Jan 15, 2018 7:57am
Quoting Nelson35a
{quote} Hi Parviz, I have a quick question regarding where you have drawn your EURUSD larger AB leg from/to on the H4 chart. On my attached chart I have marked with white letters an AB=CD pattern which seems to have already completed. The red letters are where you have drawn your AB=CD. Have you drawn your AB leg on what I have as a CD leg because the original pattern has completed and you are just moving along to the right for the next possible AB=CD pattern or is the AB=CD I have marked in white wrong in some way? Any help with answering this...
Hi:
The one you have drawn is already completed and correction was at my Red C point, a new one has formed with AB leg being the CD of the previous one.
  • #35,506
  • Jan 15, 2018 8:03am Jan 15, 2018 8:03am
Quoting parviz1953
{quote} Hi: The one you have drawn is already completed and correction was at my Red C point, a new one has formed with AB leg being the CD of the previous one.
Thanks for clarifying Parviz
  • #35,507
  • Edited 9:04am Jan 15, 2018 8:40am | Edited 9:04am
Short.
SOS 3 setup
+ harmonic of previous move.

Edit: S/L hit: -5,9
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Luck is when opportunity meets preparation"
  • #35,508
  • Jan 15, 2018 12:13pm Jan 15, 2018 12:13pm
I've just opened up an account with ninjatrader/damon so I can gain access to the futures market. Must say, the cheaper commission and not having the random spikes of volatility accompanied with varied spreads seems pretty damn good.

Quick question yo: would those of you who trade the YM say targeting 40 points a week is a realistic goal?
  • #35,509
  • Jan 15, 2018 12:17pm Jan 15, 2018 12:17pm
Quoting waqz12345
I've just opened up an account with ninjatrader/damon so I can gain access to the futures market. Must say, the cheaper commission and not having the random spikes of volatility accompanied with varied spreads seems pretty damn good. Quick question yo: would you those who trade the YM say targeting 40 points a week is a realistic goal?
That is very realistic. Most of the swings I trade on the 233 tick are in the 20 - 40 point range. I've only been at this since July of 2017 so my scope of data is somewhat limited. I'm aiming for 100 points a month or more. Base goal to start with.
  • #35,510
  • Jan 15, 2018 2:36pm Jan 15, 2018 2:36pm
Quoting waqz12345
I've just opened up an account with ninjatrader/damon so I can gain access to the futures market. Must say, the cheaper commission and not having the random spikes of volatility accompanied with varied spreads seems pretty damn good. Quick question yo: would those of you who trade the YM say targeting 40 points a week is a realistic goal?
My typical stop loss per trade on the 233 tick is between 20-40 pts, targeting more than that of course. I average 4 trades per day, 13 points per day, 65/week, which upon reflection doesn’t sound that great but, it keeps me green each month.
  • #35,511
  • Jan 15, 2018 3:00pm Jan 15, 2018 3:00pm
Quoting bmdenton23
{quote} My typical stop loss per trade on the 233 tick is between 20-40 pts, targeting more than that of course. I average 4 trades per day, 13 points per day, 65/week, which upon reflection doesn’t sound that great but, it keeps me green each month.
i mean I would love to be making that much, that would be massive once compounded and if consistently achieved for a couple years.
  • #35,512
  • Jan 15, 2018 3:15pm Jan 15, 2018 3:15pm
Quoting waqz12345
{quote} i mean I would love to be making that much, that would be massive once compounded and if consistently achieved for a couple years.
My advice is just to do exactly what Mr Pip does, stick to the YM, 233 tick, trading between market open-lunch, give yourself a couple of months in demo, try not to spread your attention too thin by following other markets/instruments. Use ninja traders playback feature to go back and trade previous days for practice. Keep good stats. Skip Ab=cd completions, skip all the patterns for now, just trade pullbacks to at least the 50/61% for good rr. Once you get a handle on all that start adding the other stuff.
  • #35,513
  • Jan 15, 2018 3:33pm Jan 15, 2018 3:33pm
Quoting bmdenton23
{quote} My advice is just to do exactly what Mr Pip does, stick to the YM, 233 tick, trading between market open-lunch, give yourself a couple of months in demo, try not to spread your attention too thin by following other markets/instruments. Use ninja traders playback feature to go back and trade previous days for practice. Keep good stats. Skip Ab=cd completions, skip all the patterns for now, just trade pullbacks to at least the 50/61% for good rr. Once you get a handle on all that start adding the other stuff.
cheers for the advice, i already have practice using this strategy live for past 3-4 months so i'm comfortable with most ideas presented thus far. I was just unsure what to really expect from the YM since majority of my trading has revolved around day trading eur/usd (as it's the only currency with a low enough spread/commission and high enough daily-range to warrant day-trading for me).
  • #35,514
  • Jan 15, 2018 6:26pm Jan 15, 2018 6:26pm
Quoting waqz12345
{quote} cheers for the advice, i already have practice using this strategy live for past 3-4 months so i'm comfortable with most ideas presented thus far. I was just unsure what to really expect from the YM since majority of my trading has revolved around day trading eur/usd (as it's the only currency with a low enough spread/commission and high enough daily-range to warrant day-trading for me).
I think you’ll find the YM much easier, i failed at intraday trading the eur/usd gbp/usd though I do still trade 30 something forex pairs on the H1/H4 chart using the same strategy that Mr Pip teaches here. I’m typically in 3 to 4 fx positions at any given time with trades running from a few days to a couple weeks.

Comparing my forex H1/H4 stats to 233T YM

FX
57% w/l
1.24:1 profit factor


YM 233t
72%
2.41:1
  • #35,515
  • Jan 15, 2018 9:19pm Jan 15, 2018 9:19pm
Quoting waqz12345
I've just opened up an account with ninjatrader/damon so I can gain access to the futures market. Must say, the cheaper commission and not having the random spikes of volatility accompanied with varied spreads seems pretty damn good. Quick question yo: would those of you who trade the YM say targeting 40 points a week is a realistic goal?

yes 40 ticks is a realistic goal per week on the 233 tick chart but i would suggest putting your winning and losing as your 3rd priority, your first should be getting your process right.

Once you get that correct the P/L is just a matter of capital and position sizing.
  • #35,516
  • Edited 10:52pm Jan 15, 2018 10:02pm | Edited 10:52pm
Quoting bmdenton23
{quote} I think you’ll find the YM much easier, i failed at intraday trading the eur/usd gbp/usd though I do still trade 30 something forex pairs on the H1/H4 chart using the same strategy that Mr Pip teaches here. I’m typically in 3 to 4 fx positions at any given time with trades running from a few days to a couple weeks. Comparing my forex H1/H4 stats to 233T YM FX 57% w/l 1.24:1 profit factor YM 233t 72% 2.41:1
Hi:
What were the reason of your intraday trading failure in Fx.?
I believe the magic , ease and your success is not in YM ,but rather in using 233T chart, it gives a much cleaner view of PA with a lot less noise, and since it is equivalent to M1-M5 TF , naturally you are getting more opportunity to trade , consider a profit of e.g. 100 pip in H1 single swing ,the 233T chart, can give you a lot more when you trade several pullbacks of the same swing in lower TF .
To give you an idea of what i mean by cleaner T233 chart , i superimposed the bars of M5 and T233 chart of the same region (USDJPY).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #35,517
  • Jan 15, 2018 10:46pm Jan 15, 2018 10:46pm
Quoting parviz1953
{quote} Hi: What were the reason of your intraday trading failure in Fx.? I believe the magic , ease and your success is not in YM ,but rather in using 233T chart, it gives a much cleaner view of PA with a lot less noise, and since it is equivalent to M1-M5 TF , naturally you are getting more opportunity to trade , consider a profit of e.g. 100 pip in H1 single swing , 233T , can give you a lot more when you trade several pullbacks of the same swing in lower TF . To give you an idea of what i mean by cleaner T233 chart , i superimposed the bars...
Parviz you're right, the 233T chart has made life much easier. I believe my failures in intraday FX are the same reasons I can't seem to trade the NQ (which I've only attempted in DEMO a handful of times). That being that I like to put my stops 1-2 ticks below the prev swing. If you'll notice Mr. Pip will sometimes be 5-8ish ticks below but I play my stops pretty tight. The NQ / FX - especially on the lower time frames just doesn't seem to respect those swing bottoms/tops as precisely as the YM does. Couple that with with a minimum spread of 1.0/1.1 for the EURUSD (and you may have to go offshore to get that), and a constantly changing spread everytime the big guy tweets...... I just got frustrated with it. I do however trade 30 some odd pairs on the H1/H4.
  • #35,518
  • Jan 16, 2018 1:30am Jan 16, 2018 1:30am
Quoting bmdenton23
{quote} I think you’ll find the YM much easier, i failed at intraday trading the eur/usd gbp/usd though I do still trade 30 something forex pairs on the H1/H4 chart using the same strategy that Mr Pip teaches here. I’m typically in 3 to 4 fx positions at any given time with trades running from a few days to a couple weeks. Comparing my forex H1/H4 stats to 233T YM FX 57% w/l 1.24:1 profit factor YM 233t 72% 2.41:1
aha, i'm currently doing the same exact thing. day trading one instrument and occasionally looking at the 30m/1h for swing trading ~30 FX pairs. From what i've seen thus far from historical data, price action from YM is ALOT cleaner. It's good that you have specific data around your P:L/win rate
  • #35,519
  • Jan 16, 2018 5:02am Jan 16, 2018 5:02am
Hi Guyz, nice to see this thread always up and running. Due to my daily schedule I cannot follow as i would, but I've been following at my best and find your work unbelieveble. Great Job everybody!
Now a little question of mine : For whom that have set a specific duration to his trading session, How do you manage a trade that is taking longer to develop?
Say you entered a trade that is in line with what is taught here, but price haven't already a satisfiying move in your direction, you session is running out of time. What would you do?
1-Close the trade anyway at BE or a small loss
2-Set the stop accordingly to the plan and the present market conditions and walk away from the screen (of course this can bring to a greater loss than point
1, but you leave yourself the chance to let your analysis have his course)
3-Stay at the screen and manage your trade personally till the end result.

Thank You
maxx
If you quit, it is NEVER going to happen...
  • #35,520
  • Jan 16, 2018 7:43am Jan 16, 2018 7:43am
GM Traders, I will be posting the link shortly
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
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