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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #1,581
  • Jan 7, 2018 4:34pm Jan 7, 2018 4:34pm
Good evening traders

I sense GBP/CAD dropping down to the big boss support area around 1.62 over the course of January.
big boss, boss & worker are trending down; boss has tested 100 ema in the week of Nov 27th, worker ema's are starting to cross over towards downhill. Last week has closed below WCC support of 1.6915 after 4 weeks (yellow line, will be adjusted to last weeks high/low after posting)
I think price will pull back at 1.67 and form a LH, so I'll wait for a confirmed swing and enter 3 contracts at below a legit signal (preferably a SS).
Bespoke target is 1.62, s/l at daily high of entering signal.
Will close 2 contracts at 1.66 and move s/l to where I entered the trade. 3rd contract will be open until target is reached or if it idles after 3 days.
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  • #1,582
  • Jan 7, 2018 9:41pm Jan 7, 2018 9:41pm
take this trade on AUDNZD, did i take a trade correctly ?
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2% target/Month !
  • #1,583
  • Jan 7, 2018 9:51pm Jan 7, 2018 9:51pm
Quoting HappyTrend
{quote} Recently Open Daily Trade? i dont know if that is the word... sometimes i open my trade in 5 minutes... and if appear my entry signal in higher timeframe i just leave it and change TF to higher timeframe and start managing it on higher timeframe. Im reading about the Psychology and i think my mind doesnt fit with trading only Daily Charts.. i just tried in Forex Pairs and i dont get it.. i dont know why... so stay with my intraday trading of dowjones.. and only USDMXN for long term... I cant trade more pairs because my mind just freeze.....

Buy Buy Buy. I need now, how to manage my positions... im not used to hold positions for days haha.
  • #1,584
  • Jan 8, 2018 4:03am Jan 8, 2018 4:03am
Quoting trogger
.............. Have taken profit on 2 or 3 positions (honestly can't remember and can't be bothered going through lists of closed trades to tell you exactly how many have closed). Now I look to collect interest on my open trades, don't really care whether it hits next target or heads back south to give me another entry opportunity. Either way, I'm in profit and have the potential to make more profit. Sure, it it heads below 67.80, I re-assess. Otherwise, this is a trade I just tuck away and work it "Hokey-Tokey"...

Well, it did hit next target:

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(and despite saying "I don't really care.... etc.." I do confess to feeling a little disappointed when a trade goes smoothly to all targets without giving me the opportunity to "get back on the dance floor" and "do the Hokey-Tokey!" Oh well, maybe reaction coming up at this level? Whadya all think?)
  • #1,585
  • Jan 8, 2018 4:59am Jan 8, 2018 4:59am
Quoting trogger
{quote} Better? Purr-fect! {Swoon!} Arts and crafts not my strong point. OK. OK! I can look past that. Can you cook? {Swoon} OK. Everybody, please STAND for the National Anthem of South Africa: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0W_yRpc1cM

"O Pippoacher, Pippoacher, wherefore art thou Pippoacher?"

Hey Pippoacher. I took this trade in your honour (now I probably need you to tell me who's stealing what over there and how the hell to get outa this one with the skin on me back!).

Entered 5 Jan 2018

OK. Charts snapped as I entered:

1. Look at the big picture - The BIG BOSS:

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say, that Dec bar is about a billion pips long to the south. Hell, who stands in front of a "freight train", especially one falling off a cliff?

Say,wait a minute. What happened in March? Oh, really!

2. What's the boss got to say on this?

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Really? Week starting 24 Dec has its PRICE CLOSED inside the weekly bar starting 26 March 2017? Ya don't say!

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3. What's the worker working on?

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Oh, I see. Working on forming a platform. Maybe we could give this platform a name? I know! How does "support" sound?


4. What's the risk? 4 hour input:

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5. In. Three positions. Red Arrow.

6. Monitor the trade:

Today's charts
15 min:

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Note it didn't quite make target one first attempt (1st limebox).

I happened to be online as it approached target again this evening, so snapped this chart showing the expected reaction as it approached 2nd time around:

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Sure enough. bearish outside bar hiccup, . But we are not trading 15 min time frame! Wait and Ka-ching!:

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Now, Remember Folks!

Don't try this at home - Only an idiot stands in front of the "Midnight Freight Special", waving his Boy Scout lantern and ordering it to stop.

This could end Badly!

Now, PipPoacher: "have thou forsaken me?
  • #1,586
  • Edited 6:45am Jan 8, 2018 6:32am | Edited 6:45am
M5 -Sell

EURNZD - Fear Vs Greed or Trading the plan?

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Hi Strat

Following on from your reply last week I've been reconsidering how I normally manage trades, I've spent years training myself to set and forget stops and accept them come what may (err, because I was told to by a "Guru"...).

So once again you have managed to get into my thick head... WHY AM I DOING THIS?

I've also been working on such a deep level on myself this past couple of months I have actually managed to surprise myself, I can't really put this into words apart from I think it can only really happen if: 1. You get to a place where something is broken and you've got to change and 2. You let it

So onto today's trade. EURNZD seemed to be the only thing moving with some honesty today so she chose me..

My hard stop is where I would have sat with 1 trade and I would have had an initial target to 1.6635 which was a level back in November and a wobble 1st level target of 1.6685.

So last week this would have still been a good trade as my exit would still have been the same as today. Winner happy days (1 entry).

However today I had my hard stop (35 pips or so) ..fair enough but then I could see where I was going to close the trade if she didn't want to dance which actually was only about 8 pips. Well she didn't really fancy a tango more like shuffle to the bar but still gave me another little shuffle for a 2nd entry. (This is a change for me, I normally do the opposite and take off not add into).

We wobbled a bit and then I asked myself, well this is interesting I'm 60 pips away from my ideal exit but I'm at my 1st PASR. So am I fearful of losing pips and take the trade off too early or am I being greedy wanting the whole lot?

I had a plan and was thinking this through, the higher TF candles were still working but looking a bit shy, lets wait until 12 o'clock chimes and protect my profit.

There may be more on the table but I'm OK with this trade but if I'm completely honest I'm still unsure if I have traded a plan or traded fear or traded greed....

I'd really like to see other members post hard right charts and talk it through? IT'S SIMPLE BUT HARD!
Private Msgs are turned off to weirdos, loafs and brain drainers
  • #1,587
  • Jan 8, 2018 9:14am Jan 8, 2018 9:14am
Quoting BeyondTheSea
M5 -Sell EURNZD - !
Nice! I was on buy mode on D1, but my SL got hit. I am glad you did better with it on M5.
  • #1,588
  • Jan 8, 2018 12:04pm Jan 8, 2018 12:04pm
AN closed
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2% target/Month !
  • #1,589
  • Jan 8, 2018 12:13pm Jan 8, 2018 12:13pm
Quoting BeyondTheSea
M5 -Sell EURNZD - Fear Vs Greed or Trading the plan? {image} Hi Strat Following on from your reply last week I've been reconsidering how I normally manage trades, I've spent years training myself to set and forget stops and accept them come what may (err, because I was told to by a "Guru"...). So once again you have managed to get into my thick head... WHY AM I DOING THIS? I've also been working on such a deep level on myself this past couple of months I have actually managed to surprise myself, I can't really put this into words apart from I think...

Hi BeyondTheSea,

I Trade away from Whole and Half Numbers and set my Take Profit before hitting a Whole or Half Number.

Why?

Because Institutions use Whole and Half Numbers to Build or Off Load their Positions.

Take a look at any chart and see where the Major Swings emirate from....

EDIT... On the first chart where I say to "Trade into 1.67200 or 1.67000 Whole Number" I meant look to Take Profit at 1.67200 or 1.67000 Whole Number
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  • #1,590
  • Jan 8, 2018 12:49pm Jan 8, 2018 12:49pm
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi BeyondTheSea, I Trade away from Whole and Half Numbers and set my Take Profit before hitting a Whole or Half Number. Why? Because Institutions use Whole and Half Numbers to Build or Off Load their Positions. Take a look at any chart and see where the Major Swings emirate from.... EDIT... On the first chart where I say to "Trade into 1.67200 or 1.67000 Whole Number" I meant look to Take Profit at 1.67200 or 1.67000 Whole Number {image} {image}
Thanks Stevepatt, I do look at round number and also 10, 20, 50 and 80 levels. They form part of my thought process but I no longer set targets to enter or exit from them unless I have found a PASR level there (which there often is!)
Private Msgs are turned off to weirdos, loafs and brain drainers
  • #1,591
  • Jan 8, 2018 2:31pm Jan 8, 2018 2:31pm
[quote=BeyondTheSea;10649804]M5 -Sell EURNZD - Fear Vs Greed or Trading the plan? {image}

Hi I must admit i'm not entirely sure what you're asking, but i think its about when to lock in profits, or let the trade run..
bear in mind i'm inexperienced, so take my ramblings with a pinch of salt, but i'll try and highlight my thoughts on the trade. i've attached the 4hr chart to show the obvious swings, and an a 5m to highlight my thoughts.
so on the 5m, trend is down, price has broken through the swing and is trading below it. Sell on pa at the shadow. my initial stop would have been tighter, just behind the high of the sideways area, about 1.6742, about 17 pips.
My target would have been the green line, the top of the swing below, approx 1.6675, giving a R/R of 3:1, so fine with that. However, one thing is that by the time of the trades,the market has already moved 60% of it's daily ATR. If this is a 'normal' day, with average volatility, then the price may only move the remainder..
the 4 red bars then drop the price 30 pips or so, so the trades in profit. The problem i see now, is that it stalls and begins to base...15 pips above my target.
If i still have the initial s/l, Then i'm risking 50 odd pips, to make 15, obviously a no no. I think this is where trade management on 5m becomes more fluid and dynamic..so what to do? I would probably have just banked, even though i was shy of the target planned.
One thing i am experimenting with, is on a sharp drop, pull a fib, and use the 50% to move the s/l behind. It would have worked here, but i think i may be over complicating, and obviously would need to be backtested a lot more thoroughly.
Anyway, just my 2 cents..

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  • #1,592
  • Edited 3:15pm Jan 8, 2018 2:56pm | Edited 3:15pm
Quoting brody55
Quoting BeyondTheSea
M5 -Sell EURNZD - Fear Vs Greed or Trading the plan? {image} Hi I must admit i'm not entirely sure what you're asking, but i think its about when to lock in profits, or let the trade run.. bear in mind i'm inexperienced, so take my ramblings with a pinch of salt, but i'll try and highlight my thoughts on the trade. i've attached the 4hr chart to show the obvious swings, and an a 5m to highlight my thoughts. so on the 5m, trend is down, price has broken through the swing and is trading below it. Sell on pa at the shadow.
...
...[/quote]

Thanks Brody55

My comments on the trade related to a change of mindset regarding the management moving away from a fixed stop and thinking in a RR risk to reward. Maybe this traditional rule of thumb is also another crutch learned by the "gurus" I need to bin?By using PASR and PA on the stop this will allow me to enter multiple trades for a similar risk but with much, much more reward. It's just like trading at both ends at exactly the same time. Like using both hands to play an instrument, maybe...

Anyway, this is just a thought process for me at the moment. It's simple but it's hard!

Edit: By Fixed stop I don't mean hard stop which is always in place based on initial RR. I'm talking about trading dynamically with a PA stop depending on what may happen and having an open minded attitude to the now moment of the trade. Sorry if I'm not making sense, I'll try to be clearer on my next few posts.
Private Msgs are turned off to weirdos, loafs and brain drainers
  • #1,593
  • Jan 8, 2018 4:33pm Jan 8, 2018 4:33pm
Hello Strat,

Gave up your website? I am on vacation and would like to take the time to study your philosophy!

Thank you.

RSP
  • #1,594
  • Jan 8, 2018 5:31pm Jan 8, 2018 5:31pm
PASR M5 Trend

Quoting BeyondTheSea
{quote} Thanks Stevepatt, I do look at round number and also 10, 20, 50 and 80 levels. They form part of my thought process but I no longer set targets to enter or exit from them unless I have found a PASR level there (which there often is!)
Exactly! We trade the trend, not levels, numbers or other fancy stuff - only support and resistance. Do not complicate a very easy and simple method - ignore everything else and follow what I showed on my M5 trades and also those of Saad007
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,595
  • Jan 8, 2018 5:34pm Jan 8, 2018 5:34pm
PASR

Quoting RSP.fx
Hello Strat, Gave up your website? I am on vacation and would like to take the time to study your philosophy! Thank you. RSP
Go ahead, its all here in these two threads
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,596
  • Edited 2:07am Jan 9, 2018 1:50am | Edited 2:07am
EURCAD EURJPY
Last day trades.
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  • #1,597
  • Jan 9, 2018 2:06am Jan 9, 2018 2:06am
Also good trades on EURNZD EURAUD
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  • #1,598
  • Jan 9, 2018 2:25am Jan 9, 2018 2:25am
Quoting trogger
{quote} "O Pippoacher, Pippoacher, wherefore art thou Pippoacher?" Hey Pippoacher. I took this trade in your honour (now I probably need you to tell me who's stealing what over there and how the hell to get outa this one with the skin on me back!). Entered 5 Jan 2018 OK. Charts snapped as I entered: 1. Look at the big picture - The BIG BOSS: {image} say, that Dec bar is about a billion pips long to the south. Hell, who stands in front of a "freight train", especially one falling off a cliff? Say,wait a minute. What happened in March? Oh, really!...
Ahh Trogger me mate.

Welcome to the world of pain Zar traders live in. Ive found anything less than 4 hours, the volatility will blow you away, and the lack of liquidity results in major gapping, ( never stay short over a weekend, long can only be in your favour) so the latest drama has to do with the ANC conference in December where a new president for the party was elected, but the outgoing thief Zuma in a desperate attempt to further try and rig the vote declared that all higher and tertiary education is free to the masses.
Which is an economic burden that the plundered treasury cant exactly afford. Well thats generous, so let me rephrase, the treasury that has been raped, has nothing in it so the economic implications of that is the hot topic. But importantly Kiwis are playing Pakistan in the cricket and Beauden Barett has allegedly ironed out his goal kicking (imagine the Bok thumping if he Kicks off the tee well) so a year of super rugby misery awaits me..... I see Zar pulling back to 12,25 and maybe strengthening. But who Knows Zar is a wild beast
  • #1,599
  • Edited 5:33am Jan 9, 2018 4:13am | Edited 5:33am
Quoting trogger
{quote} Well, it did hit next target: {image} (and despite saying "I don't really care.... etc.." I do confess to feeling a little disappointed when a trade goes smoothly to all targets without giving me the opportunity to "get back on the dance floor" and "do the Hokey-Tokey!" Oh well, maybe reaction coming up at this level? Whadya all think?)

Today's Lesson in History*

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Now why would I have .7198 marked on that chart?

Anybody?

(I know! Luck? ESP? wishful thinking?... Nah, Nah and Nah!)

So, what happened after that spike?

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Retest and "Hog-Heaven" freefall for all you "5 minute" wonders - if you can be bothered with 30 whole pips!

And all from the BIG BOSS


No. You work it out! (It will save you from a world of pain.)

* For you 5min traders, "History" means 1271232 (give or take) five minute intervals ago!
  • #1,600
  • Jan 9, 2018 5:25am Jan 9, 2018 5:25am
Quoting trogger
{quote} Today's Lesson in History* {image} Now why would I have .7198 marked on that chart? Anybody? (I know! Luck? ESP? wishful thinking?... Nah, Nah and Nah!) So, what happened after that spike? {image} Retest and "Hog-Heaven" freefall for all you "5 minute" wonders - if you can be bothered with 30 whole pips! And all from the BIG BOSS No. You work it out! (It will save you from a world of pain.) * For you 5min traders, "History" means 1271232 (give or take) five minute intervals ago!

When I was young and Dumb, I thought History was boring too!

Never could work out what this man*:
Attached Image


was prattling on about.

Now, I understand.

So, last night, I was bored. Thought I would "throw on a random trade".

Came up with this one:

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Entered on the red arrow.

It really was just random! Honest! - I just got lucky - within a few pips of the high - the "Forex Gods" were looking out for me! Honest!

or

maybe, just maybe, the BIG BOSS might have whispered in my ear?

Go on. Have a peak. See what the Big Boss knows? Understand WHY he** IS the Big Boss?


* George Santayana

**(sorry for lack of political correctness)
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