Random Walk (The unbeatable!)

Quoting GoldTheHun

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The markets are said to be random walk. Through the years of trading I really believe that the markets are random walk with a drift (drift means the current trend). So in roulette sense random walk is black or red happening has a %50 chance (omitting the zero). Some of you will argue that the markets are not random. I totally respect that. But unfortunately the markets are very close to random walk. I devised a support and resistance indicator ( using abokwaik indicator, praise to him). You will...

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Quoting newbegger

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{quote} It has always fascinated me how someone can believe in random walk and, using indicators which INDICATE a direction in the market. Support and resistance are meaninless if you truly believe markets are random. The markets are not predictable 100% but the market has probabilities so is not random. A random market could not be effected or moved by FOMC, BOC, BOE, EU, BOJ or Goldman Sachs. Belief if Random walk theory but using charting technique is like saying “I believe the earth is round and I believe the earth is flat.”

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Quoting GoldTheHun

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{quote} Hi Newbegger, I respect your view. However there is a misconception in what you state. Random Walk does not mean markets are random. The motion of the markets are random walk, which is Volatility * SquareRoot of Time. It just gives boundaries where prices can go within certain period of time, which we call Support and Resistance. Random Walk does not indicate the direction of the markets.. FYI all the Option prices are calculated using Random Walk, with the formula Volatility * Sqrt(Time). Good Luck...

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Quoting diamonddbw

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Hi GTH, I'm back for a refresher, so just reread thread. First let me compliment you on your patience. You have gone into great depth on all questions, even repeat questions, and questions regarding answers given in basic instructions. (Like some ?'s I asked early on... ) Price is Random (in my mind), so using set ups with some degree of reliability, can provide wins. I've been working with H4 charts using 2 ma's, which are only there to provide a line in the sand. With fixed entries, short stops, and no profit levels to begin...

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Quoting acetrader

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GoldTheHun , Tip of the hat to you on your thread & sticking to your beliefs. At the end of the day its all about what is working for you no matter how you see the markets. You summed it up pretty good above. Best wishes to you & your thread. "Happy New"

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Quoting Intrepidpips

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Happy New year all. I must have downloaded the indies shared here from someplace else but I couldn't get my head around how to use them. Directions not the issue for me, committing to my targets, and the only problem I can see with this approach is when the daily open on a Bullish day is above Fib 78 and doesn't retrace to it before going up, thankfully there are several Pivot points that are likely to be reached or breached. The Random walk theory comes alive when you trade micro time frames or Renko box sizes, you never know when the big money...

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Quoting Intrepidpips

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{quote} I see I am supposed to invert the fib tool. {image}

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Quoting Intrepidpips

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Watching. {image}

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Quoting !iii!

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Hi GoldTheHun, Just discovered your thread. Some time back I modified a well-known, related indicator (i-Reg) plotting the z-scores as support and resistance levels across regressions of up to 8 polynomial degrees. It is continuous and not anchored to the first bar of the Australian session, though. They help influence ones perception for manual trading but that's about it : all my automation efforts failed. Cheers - keep up this positive thread. Claus {image} {file}

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Quoting GoldTheHun

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{quote} Here is Day open indicator to compliment your trading: {file} Hope it helps.. Good Luck..

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Quoting Intrepidpips

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{quote} Thanks for sharing, wish it has previous day high and lows with an option to hide which levels you don't want to display. I observed the RW S&R and it looks like R0 &R1 seems to be magnets in an up trend. {image} {image}

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Quoting nozzer

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@Goldthehun,what about this for identifying the trend..using heiken ashi bars,if the previous day ends up green go long for the day or if it ends up red go short, what do you think?

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