M TTT M | Page 5 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: M TTT M
Exit Attachments

M TTT M

  • #81
  • Dec 18, 2017 5:50am Dec 18, 2017 5:50am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} This system works because the odds are on our side. Consider the probability of having all 9 losses in a row ! Now consider the chances that this repeats itself in the very next cycle of TS's. Then consider the probability of winning 2 trades out of 9 ! Often if you let a trade run on the PA might reverse and you get stopped out unless you close it early. A more complex or should I say a far more thought out TS Order 3 will have its advantages however, a higher TF works better most of the time ! The more you trade these setups the more interesting...
About reverse trades when you let run its some problem that use current approach. You never have guarantee price go in one direction will reach limit before turn direction and go opposite. Evidently your formula minimize the probabilities of losses because almost all combinations in one TS are profitable.

But I'm not talking about improve the formula because for me the risk is fine. I'm talking about how manage that small combinations are loss for try reduce more the risk.

If you have in 9 combination 7 winner and 2 loser we agree risk is very low. But 50/50% probabilites dont means you will get an uniform row of wins/losses. This is a big mistake when people like casino roulette black/red strategy. Martingale suffers same unbalance problem. Then have a favorable win ratio is one part of solution but the safest way is reduce loss probability to 0. Its impossible but closer to that number bigger probabilities to success in long term.

Anyway since you exposed your MM idea I agree the base is very good and that is reason I'm interesting in check all weaks. Because as coder I have that defect. I always search the problems for fix it because the strongs never are a problem in systems
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #82
  • Dec 18, 2017 6:09am Dec 18, 2017 6:09am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} About reverse trades when you let run its some problem that use current approach. You never have guarantee price go in one direction will reach limit before turn direction and go opposite. Evidently your formula minimize the probabilities of losses because almost all combinations in one TS are profitable. But I'm not talking about improve the formula because for me the risk is fine. I'm talking about how manage that small combinations are loss for try reduce more the risk. If you have in 9 combination 7 winner and 2 loser we agree risk is...
Some good points raised here.

Yes I'm very big on MM and so I know that part of the method is rock solid.

A trader is very likely to have some success even if they trade an almost random approach choosing weird types of TS setups in the MTTTM.

I have managed to keep a few key principles very solid.

The Money management.

The chances of being net profitable by only having very few winning trades is a high probability.

Spreading the risk over several trades.

Assigning the risk per trade (fixed for the duration of that TS cycle of trades).

So yes the strength of the MTTTM Strategy is very evident.

There is no martingale in this method at all ... although it could be added if the system was continually dynamic by this I mean as a trade hits loss a new trade entered at higher lot size is immediately added and again applied with 4 to 1 R:r etc.

DD management may need addressing in that case unless totla risk across all trades is considered and accounted for.

I'm not sure this approach should be adopted but discussion is always welcome.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Questions for discussion:

Weaknesses in the system are ???

How to choose pairs in a TS that are more likely to lead to profitable trades ???

Time frame to trade, M15, H1, H4, D1 ???

Successful techniques that can be applied over the longer term to strengthen the method ???

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #83
  • Dec 18, 2017 6:14am Dec 18, 2017 6:14am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} Here you go my friend. {image} Note that the pip value formula also depends on the exchange rate so it does vary a little over a short period of time. What is the denominated currency of your trading account? Not US$ I would say. Octave Gap is 15.3 pips on my broker. Masterrmind...........
Hi Masterrmind,

thanks for your help, your are right that my thinking is in Euro and I am too close to Britain as I spend there every year a couple of weeks so I have the rates always in mind, but 1,33 we had some years ago and that confused me.
I tested your ideas, but not exactly as I typed some errors, in a 123Bonus live account, terrible conditions ( lot 100,000, min. lot 0.10, next is 0.20, my EAs not operating) but it got the power, the main idea was eur/USD, usd/GBP with the ratio eur/GBP and my favorite small brothers of the Euro, the swissies, and audCad, audUSD, with ratio usdCad, two testing session with those result, this account will expire in two days and I guess I can not blow it in time with this system, incredible, but I am impressed ... anyhow, you did a very good work ... I have to check those MT5 EA if I can get some ideas out of it and bring it to work
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DetailedStatement fbs.gif Size: 6 KB
  • #84
  • Dec 18, 2017 6:20am Dec 18, 2017 6:20am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} Some good points raised here. Yes I'm very big on MM and so I know that part of the method is rock solid. A trader is very likely to have some success even if they trade an almost random approach choosing weird types of TS setups in the MTTTM. I have managed to keep a few key principles very solid. The Money management. The chances of being net profitable by only having very few winning trades is a high probability. Spreading the risk over several trades. Assigning the risk per trade (fixed for the duration of that TS cycle of trades). So...
For me weak area are that small loss probabilites in a TS but I think this because I'm seeing how apply in a auto system. Auto systems are silly because all "magic" trader hand dissapear. Even in a fixed rules like your 4:1 system software have an awesome way to always take the worst decision then every small issue in a system can be a big problem in their execution.

As manual system I think current risk is very low for a experienced trader and very valid at current state
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #85
  • Dec 18, 2017 6:25am Dec 18, 2017 6:25am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} About reverse trades when you let run its some problem that use current approach. You never have guarantee price go in one direction will reach limit before turn direction and go opposite. Evidently your formula minimize the probabilities of losses because almost all combinations in one TS are profitable. But I'm not talking about improve the formula because for me the risk is fine. I'm talking about how manage that small combinations are loss for try reduce more the risk. If you have in 9 combination 7 winner and 2 loser we agree risk is...
One very important point I will mention though is simply this .... there are so many options between trade setups on even the same pairs that for say a TS Order 3 that even if 2 traders were given the identical TS setup (except direction) that both their choose of direction for each pair and their final results may differ wildly.

Something has to be left for the trader to decide and believe me this little point about choice is a huge one.

Something for traders to think about.

How do I choose the best pairs and their directions in a given TS of any Order to beat the next trader at his/her own game.

Longer term consistency is what many traders attempt to achieve but very few ever do !

I've presented a part of the method, plenty is not visible but a healthy discussion might help to bring other points to the surface.

Although I certainly recommend that keen traders follow along at how I will eventually choose the pairs in the TS set and then try to understand why a big part will be at their own discretion and how they control their MM, trade management and risk management.

Its sure to be an interesting journey especially when we start trading live .... next year.

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #86
  • Dec 18, 2017 6:29am Dec 18, 2017 6:29am
Quoting togerhard
{quote} Hi Masterrmind, thanks for your help, your are right that my thinking is in Euro and I am too close to Britain as I spend there every year a couple of weeks so I have the rates always in mind, but 1,33 we had some years ago and that confused me. I tested your ideas, but not exactly as I typed some errors, in a 123Bonus live account, terrible conditions ( lot 100,000, min. lot 0.10, next is 0.20, my EAs not operating) but it got the power, the main idea was eur/USD, usd/GBP with the ratio eur/GBP and my favorite small brothers of the Euro,...
Thanks for the transparency togerhard and sharing your results.

Good work!

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #87
  • Dec 18, 2017 6:41am Dec 18, 2017 6:41am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} For me weak area are that small loss probabilites in a TS but I think this because I'm seeing how apply in a auto system. Auto systems are silly because all "magic" trader hand dissapear. Even in a fixed rules like your 4:1 system software have an awesome way to always take the worst decision then every small issue in a system can be a big problem in their execution. As manual system I think current risk is very low for a experienced trader and very valid at current state
One area that is rather discretionary is for example, in the situation when the TS cycle is net positive and the trader needs to decide whether to let all trades run their complete course to stop out or TP or close out for small profit.

I'm sure a rule (or as I like to call them..guidelines) could be applied.

Something like the following:

If >= 2 trades in a TS Order 3 have been closed out at full TP and current session is NY, if current running trades are net positive then close out all.

Food for thought.

Masterrmind...........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #88
  • Dec 18, 2017 7:29am Dec 18, 2017 7:29am
I would like to add my opinion to the MoneyManagement

and for traders who keep positions over night/weekend,

in case someone trades with an 10k account, 1 lot and 1 percent SL, the trade gone with 10-15 pips not in the desired direction as we know.

Furthermore mind the Spread …

my ECN broker of first choice (see my TE) has an average Spread during London/NY Session from 0.6 to 0.8 Pips the currencies I do trade and what I can see.

Friday Night at close we had for example
AUD/USD 64 Pips
EUR/CHF 36 Pips
EUR/USD 15 Pips
GBP/CHF 137 Pips

Similar Spreads have to be paid during high impact News. I run an Expert in a VPS which gives me every certain time my Equity of my account, and it can happen that during Monday opening or red News, I do run a 10 to 15percent DD just because of Spread because of some pending news because of some increasing.

Recently I attended a Seminar of one of my three Brokers so I could hear the Brokers voice that a very plenty of accounts stopped out because of suddenly, unexpected high Spreads and over leveraged or position run into SL because of increase of Spread.
I questioned one of the full time traders what he is doing to avoid so he told to me, after NY session, he will take out all his stops and pending orders and give in start Tokyo or London session.

More Money Management
As I typed 12 orders manually and closed them so … in my opinion, you need an EA who does your MM and take the profit/toxic from the table at an certain amount, if manually, in a quick move the winners gone to losers, the broker might increase Spread and the setup gone into the brokers pocket
  • #89
  • Dec 18, 2017 7:32am Dec 18, 2017 7:32am
sorry, the spread was

AUD/USD 6.4 Pips
EUR/CHF 3.6 Pips
EUR/USD 1.5 Pips
GBP/CHF 13.7 Pips
  • #90
  • Dec 18, 2017 7:56am Dec 18, 2017 7:56am
Quoting togerhard
sorry, the spread was AUD/USD 6.4 Pips EUR/CHF 3.6 Pips EUR/USD 1.5 Pips GBP/CHF 13.7 Pips
Maybe some brokers blow out the spread crazy like in your post above.

Always better to get out of trades is possible before the end of the week.

But sometimes its not possible due to various reasons however, if you can get out then do it.

Masterrmind..............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #91
  • Dec 18, 2017 8:15am Dec 18, 2017 8:15am
Is everyone clear on the entries I made ?

Basically, if price was close to the MML line then I'd enter at market setting 1 octave gap for the stop and 4*Octave gap for the TP

Although I only used Buy Stop and Sell Stop orders on this TS Order 3 I may also apply limit orders (Buy limit and Sell limit).

In general I would apply a Buy Limit order if price was just a bit above an MML line and I want to enter the trade slightly lower which may or may not involve a TP that could exceed the +2/8 MML line.

If TP which currently has to move 4 octaves is at or below the extreme +2/8 MML then I might simply use a Buy Stop for the next MML above current price.

Sell Limit similar except I'd be wanting to short from the next MML line up the chart and wanting price to drop of course.

Ask questions if you are unsure as to the entries.

I may post a few annotated charts after this current TS setup completes since I plan to make plenty of comments in due course.

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #92
  • Dec 18, 2017 8:25am Dec 18, 2017 8:25am
This is the current situation on the account:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 91 KB

If it was a live account I would probably close all the trades out since every trade is positive at this time and it represents almost a 4% gain in equity for the day and it wasn't too hard of a day either.

Nevertheless, I'll allow the trades to run on whilst I have some sleep.

See you all tomorrow.

ps. all trades stops checked and all trades TPs checked.

Masterrmind..............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #93
  • Edited 12:41pm Dec 18, 2017 12:02pm | Edited 12:41pm
Hi Masterrmind

I have placed 9 orders (Set of Order 3) on 15-Dec-2017
For Octive gap of 31 pips lot size 1.0
For Octive gap of 15.3 pips lot size 2.0
For Octive gap of 7.6 pips lot size 4.0
I am trying to get count of the pips gained (assuming pip value constant across pairs) as a basic version.
This is current status of these 9 orders.

Hope this is correct

--Chandan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: m TTT M.png Size: 32 KB
  • #94
  • Dec 18, 2017 5:51pm Dec 18, 2017 5:51pm
Quoting chandan655
Hi Masterrmind I have placed 9 orders (Set of Order 3) on 15-Dec-2017 For Octive gap of 31 pips lot size 1.0 For Octive gap of 15.3 pips lot size 2.0 For Octive gap of 7.6 pips lot size 4.0 I am trying to get count of the pips gained (assuming pip value constant across pairs) as a basic version. This is current status of these 9 orders. Hope this is correct --Chandan {image}
Hi chandan655,

I would say that your lot sizes have not been calculated correctly since they are all clean digits without decimal placings.

The critical part though is not the lot size but the real risk per trade over all trades.

Pip Value is NOT constant across all pairs (please read Post 1 again when you have some free time).
Look at some of my screenshots on different pairs ... clearly the pip values are different (except a few cases where they are the same).

For 9 trades if you assign 1% per trade then every SL must be 1% of the initial balance prior to a planned TS entry.

Clearly risking 9% in total on the account for all trades is not favorable to all traders.

In this case they should halve the risk applied per trade and use 0.5% per trade (for every trade) which will have a total risk of 4.5%.

The trader needs to decide what is appropriate for them in terms of how much they want to risk on a TS setup.

There are a few posts previously that explain the Lot size calculation and you should have the Pip_Value indicator to assist.

1. Assign a risk per trade (0.1%, 0.25%, 0.5%, 1%, etc) choose only 1 ofcourse

2. Then based on account balance calculate how many dollars, euros or other currency this equates too. eg 1% * $10 000 = $100

3. Obtain the data for each pair (Octave Gap and pip value) ... lets assume Octave Gap = 25 pips and Pip_Value = $10

4. Input the values into the Lot Size formula

Lot size
= $Risk per trade /[Octave Gap*Pip_Value]
=$100/[25*10]
= 100/250
= 0.4 lots

Now you know for that particular trade that the position size has to be 0.4 lots.

And if the trade hits SL the loss in $ must be 100 which is 1% of your initial account balance.

Note 1: When you are planning to set up a new TS use the same initial starting balance for all trade calculations which for the example above it would mean using 10 000 as the balance value.

Note 2: Every calculation must be completed prior to trading the TS setup

Note 3: Accounting correctly for the risk on every trade is very important so get it right.

ps. your results are looking good but what account balance are you trading and what is the assigned risk per trade ?

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #95
  • Dec 18, 2017 5:57pm Dec 18, 2017 5:57pm
NZDJPY

Winning trade

+4%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 79 KB

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #96
  • Dec 18, 2017 5:58pm Dec 18, 2017 5:58pm
OK Quick update on my set.

The EURGBP short was stopped out. (-0.40)

The EURUSD long reached TP for one win. (+1.60)

The GBPUSD long is still open and is in positive territory. I could close it now for a smaller win or I can let it run. I can move the SL to somewhere in profit and forget about it. Or I can just forget about it as is and wait for it to stop out or hit TP. Its about 60 pips in profit so I may just close it and run. But even if it did get stopped out, the set is already positive as we have one full TP win which is all that is needed for a TS of order 1 to be net positive.
Don't look down when learning to fly.
  • #97
  • Dec 18, 2017 6:03pm Dec 18, 2017 6:03pm
Some trades will get stopped out by a few little pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 80 KB

Only to see price head up and hit where your TP would have been.

This will happen from time to time unfortunately.

Masterrmind..............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #98
  • Dec 18, 2017 6:10pm Dec 18, 2017 6:10pm
Sometimes price will charge up very close to your TP.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 84 KB

But then roll over and head back down the chart.

Sometimes it happens when you are fast asleep and there is not much you can do about it.

Trailing stops could be applied but we will discuss these techniques later (the good and the bad of trailing stops).

It happens unfortunately !

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #99
  • Dec 18, 2017 6:18pm Dec 18, 2017 6:18pm
Current situation on account
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 89 KB

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #100
  • Dec 18, 2017 6:29pm Dec 18, 2017 6:29pm
Quoting Platanero
OK Quick update on my set. The EURGBP short was stopped out. (-0.40) The EURUSD long reached TP for one win. (+1.60) The GBPUSD long is still open and is in positive territory. I could close it now for a smaller win or I can let it run. I can move the SL to somewhere in profit and forget about it. Or I can just forget about it as is and wait for it to stop out or hit TP. Its about 60 pips in profit so I may just close it and run. But even if it did get stopped out, the set is already positive as we have one full TP win which is all that is needed...
At some point both common sense and some trade management is required.

What to do ?

1. Let it run its course.

2. Close it out in profit now

3. Tighten or trail the stop

If the trades are allowed to run their full course then the outcome is known in advance.

Either the trade loses 1% of the account balance or it adds about 4% to the account balance.

If a set of trades has been running over night and there is a net gain on the account and you want to start the next setup say around London Open then perhaps a guideline needs to be posted to Post 1 suggesting that a closure is ok if the setup is net positive.

Ultimately this will be at the discretion of the trader.

However, there may be little point in allowing the last few trades to run their course over multiple days when the pairs have simply decided to trade in a tight range not hitting the stop and not hitting the TP.

Later I will update Post 1 with a set of guidelines for such a case and then add to it if necessary over time.

Its like the trades that I have open now, I may close them all out about an hour or so before I plan to tarde the next TS Order 3.

I have had 1 winner on NJ which has erased the losses on the first 3 losers but at least 1 more winner would be great.

Other points of concern is say when the trades have opened in London or early NY sessions and then hit the slower moving Asian session.

The temptation might be to close out all trades if net profit and then reload for the next TS setup!

Lets see.

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
3 traders viewing now