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  • #581
  • Edited 3:56pm Dec 6, 2017 10:01am | Edited 3:56pm
Cheetah well spotted. Definitely something to bear in mind going forwards
The banks are quite bullish on the euro at the moment
Missed a couple of trades over last few days
First the CAD figures
Next with the pound today. I was driving in my car listening to Boris Johnson basically talking about a hard Brexit. Thinking sell sell.
  • #582
  • Edited 5:06pm Dec 6, 2017 4:55pm | Edited 5:06pm
US figures on Tuesday disappointed - might not have helped the mood
On UJ price has pulled back, built a base, Asian traders buying it (makes a change)
Also some poor news on diary in New Zealand helps
Technically has not broken the trend line line- now its off to test the upper trend line/R1
On Friday, I think NFP estimates are do-able.
Headline is less than previous which really was an outlier.
Wage estimates decent. Hopefully Trump will keep quiet for a couple of days
Lets see how it goes.
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  • #583
  • Dec 7, 2017 4:37am Dec 7, 2017 4:37am
Quoting Fader123
US figures on Tuesday disappointed - might not have helped the mood On UJ price has pulled back, built a base, Asian traders buying it (makes a change) Also some poor news on diary in New Zealand helps Technically has not broken the trend line line- now its off to test the upper trend line/R1 On Friday, I think NFP estimates are do-able. Headline is less than previous which really was an outlier. Wage estimates decent. Hopefully Trump will keep quiet for a couple of days Lets see how it goes. {image}
On its way
  • #584
  • Dec 8, 2017 11:14am Dec 8, 2017 11:14am
Did anyone get on the USDJPY trade or sell the pound this morning.
  • #585
  • Dec 8, 2017 11:21am Dec 8, 2017 11:21am
Quoting Fader123
Did anyone get on the USDJPY trade or sell the pound this morning.
I believe a GJ sell is on the cards.
  • #586
  • Edited 1:27pm Dec 8, 2017 1:14pm | Edited 1:27pm
Quoting Fader123
Did anyone get on the USDJPY trade or sell the pound this morning.
I did not. Why did the pound sell off? Buy the rumor; sell the fact?
  • #587
  • Edited 3:01pm Dec 8, 2017 1:27pm | Edited 3:01pm
I think investors have to be concerned about the sort of trade deal that the UK gets.
Brexit still rules so you'd think that any negative trade statements on the UK from Barnier etc...would have a negative effect on the pound.
Bit of research - I think-
On the UK CPI next week if there is a miss on this it could hurt the pound.
At some point this level of inflation has got to start turning south.
US CPI estimates look decent.
Wage inflation from the US disappointed a bit today- think that this might be a concern.
Fed are probably going to hike - Cohn talked about the tax cuts improving wages.-
  • #588
  • Dec 8, 2017 1:29pm Dec 8, 2017 1:29pm
Quoting The Cheetah
{quote} I did not. Why did the pound sell off? Buy the rumor; sell the fact?
Yep-

Have you sold the Aussie Cheetah
  • #589
  • Dec 8, 2017 9:48pm Dec 8, 2017 9:48pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Yep- Have you sold the Aussie Cheetah
I am holding GJ shorts, do you think it will visit 151.50?

I'm also looking to potentially sell AUD/USD spikes.
  • #590
  • Dec 9, 2017 2:00am Dec 9, 2017 2:00am
Will have a look Money Focus
  • #591
  • Dec 9, 2017 2:33am Dec 9, 2017 2:33am
Quoting Fader123
Will have a look Money Focus
Thanks
  • #592
  • Dec 9, 2017 10:27am Dec 9, 2017 10:27am
Quoting Fader123
{quote} Yep- Have you sold the Aussie Cheetah

I haven't sold the Aussie. I thought the statement was consistent with what the RBA has been saying for the last few months. Did you see a shift in policy or expectations that I missed?

The RBA statement did re-affirm my belief that AUD is the weakest currency right now. If we get a bullish statement from the FED or ECB next week, I am going to trade against the AUD.

I am also looking forward to the BOE statement next week, too. Although, it is going to have to articulate a major shift for me to think about entering a GBP trade.
  • #593
  • Edited 12:58pm Dec 9, 2017 11:42am | Edited 12:58pm
Quoting The Cheetah
{quote} I haven't sold the Aussie. I thought the statement was consistent with what the RBA has been saying for the last few months. Did you see a shift in policy or expectations that I missed? The RBA statement did re-affirm my belief that AUD is the weakest currency right now. If we get a bullish statement from the FED or ECB next week, I am going to trade against the AUD. I am also looking forward to the BOE statement next week, too. Although, it is going to have to articulate a major shift for me to think about entering a GBP trade.
I would also factor in sentiment when there is a change in interest rate bias
At the cash rate meeting, the RNBZ sounded more hawkish but due to Labour getting in - its not really had too much of an effect

Views on the Aussie

Issue with the slow down in China (figures today not good)
Forecasts for construction a concern
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...as-debt-curbed
Iron ore issue due - heating season restriction in place

Household debt seems a concern.
Unemployment dropping
GDP -doing ok
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/mf/5206.0
Wage inflation low- should pick up
Inflation gradually returning to normal

http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2017/mr-17-25.html

I just get the feeling that they are a bit behind the curve.
Also the issues with China are a big worry.
Interest rate hikes and strength of the US economy - is not good for the Aussie.
They introduced restrictions on mortgage lending.
The only way they will become dovish is if unemployment rises (old speech from Lowe)

Next week all eyes will be on US CPI and the Fed statement - everything depends on what the Fed says (3 or 4 hikes)

This will be worth following
  • #594
  • Dec 10, 2017 1:50pm Dec 10, 2017 1:50pm
Quoting Fader123
{quote} I would also factor in sentiment when there is a change in interest rate bias
Great analysis! You are very meticulous, and consistent in your preparation.
  • #595
  • Dec 10, 2017 2:29pm Dec 10, 2017 2:29pm
Gotta be ahead of the curve Cheetah
  • #596
  • Dec 10, 2017 3:14pm Dec 10, 2017 3:14pm
I entered a long trade in the US Canadian dollar last Wednesday, December 6th, as you can see below. I entered some time around about 7 o'clock in the morning, Pacific time. It was entered on the basis of the BOC rate statement. There wasn't any expected change in the Canadian central bank rate and it did come out as expected.

They retained the 1 percent bank rate. What I was interested in though was the actual statement itself by Governor Poloz, central governor of the Bank of Canada. He came out actually stating that the bank would continue to be cautious. It was stated that future rates hikes were likely required but that the bank would continue to be cautious, so It was on this last note and similar things mentioned that I decided to go long. Now I could have held longer, unfortunately, my attention was divided and I was focused on some trades in the cryptocurrency realm, so you see one really can't do two things properly at once.

I knew the pair would probably continue higher, so I was going to hold it for a little longer but I thought because I really hadn't focused my attention on this trade, and I'd taken it at the last minute, then maybe I should get out early and take profits while I could. I did make a fair bit of profits but there wasn't that many pips, only about 12. I entered it with a fairly large amount of lots because although I usually don't use so much margin I was extra confident the trade would continue.

Inserted Video
  • #597
  • Dec 10, 2017 4:34pm Dec 10, 2017 4:34pm
After watching this - you realise how easy trading is.
And m/m can't screw around this price - it just goes
  • #598
  • Dec 11, 2017 5:23pm Dec 11, 2017 5:23pm
Hi Everyone , this is my first post on this thread.

After Friday's weaker wage growth data ( NFP) It would not surprise me if the fed downgrades their dot plot projections ( rate hike projections) for 2018.
Which may be US Dollar negative on Wednesday when they have their next meeting. Any thoughts group.
Thanks
Mark
  • #599
  • Dec 11, 2017 8:14pm Dec 11, 2017 8:14pm
Quoting jchiogna1
I entered a long trade in the US Canadian dollar last Wednesday, December 6th, as you can see below.
Nice trade. I might have to get Ransquawk. I am trying to use foreclose for updates on the numbers, but they are too slow. In their 1st post about NFP, they only gave the latest reading. Unfortunately, you need more info to enter a trade. Sometimes there are revisions to early data that moves the market. Where do you go to get data releases?
  • #600
  • Dec 12, 2017 5:42am Dec 12, 2017 5:42am
Quoting pips2504
Hi Everyone , this is my first post on this thread. After Friday's weaker wage growth data ( NFP) It would not surprise me if the fed downgrades their dot plot projections ( rate hike projections) for 2018. Which may be US Dollar negative on Wednesday when they have their next meeting. Any thoughts group. Thanks Mark
Downgrades to the dot?

Surely that would be a big surprise regardless of Friday's disappointing wage data (NB: it did not fall).
Considering also the Fed are yet to factor in the potential effects of tax reform into their economic projections... at this point, I would consider it a mildly dovish move if they do not upgrade the dot plots.

On the other hand, the yield curve is what would (probably more than the Fed's dot plot) dictate how the dollar will move in 2018.
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