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Trading Made Simple

  • #83,701
  • Nov 29, 2017 6:04am Nov 29, 2017 6:04am
Quoting ekoooy
{quote} i've sent a PM. Thanks

OK. but I have many PMs in my backlog this week. Will try reply all by this weekend. Be patient.

Go to go now... watch a movie.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,702
  • Nov 29, 2017 6:23am Nov 29, 2017 6:23am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} EURJPY has been ranging market type for several week after that Oct MN closed. But in the Weekly we can see when the ranging condition started in Oct. {image} When the market type is ranging, check the high-low of the range and you can sell near the swing high resistance and buy near the swing low support. Since I am not trading this week, I can run simulation how you can trade this type of ranging market and still make small money with low risk. You just need to be prepared when the market breaks out and if you are caught in the wrong direction...
thanks for your observations. i donīt trade ranges, i prefer range breakouts. why?

letīs say both environments have the same likelihood for a given time period (ranging/breakout). if you trade the range which in most cases means low vola and low volume, your chances are limited. but you have the constant risk of news hitting the market which can increase vola and volume and hence will cause a range breakout with good momentum (since most markets are semi-strong form efficiency). so the risk is normally greater than the chance.

maybe iīm wrong and itīs different in the fx market. possible that there are pairs that tend to range, i donīt know. but for sure, trading ranges in the stock market is a high risk low chances approach. sometimes itīs also important to know when you should NOT trade.

all the best
d1
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #83,703
  • Nov 29, 2017 12:35pm Nov 29, 2017 12:35pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} margin call? which account are you seeing in my FX Blue?
I'm referring to this which someone posted in the Comedy Club thread. Hilarious! I'm not surprised you took down the Trade Explorer. Is that make up or are you blushing?
Gone to a better place
  • #83,704
  • Nov 29, 2017 12:43pm Nov 29, 2017 12:43pm
Quoting smikester
{quote} I'm referring to this which someone posted in the Comedy Club thread. Hilarious! I'm not surprised you took down the Trade Explorer. Is that make up or are you blushing?

OIC. That one, a very old screen shot taken back in May 2017. ... some people just like to use that one screen shot make me look bad. LOL.
That TE is up but not made public and FXBlue link provided in my white list.
There was no margin call because I had my shirt protection and that was once of my kedge account anyway.
If you read my post back in April, you will know the details of that CI500 trade plan.
Anyway tomorrow is month end so be patient.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,705
  • Nov 29, 2017 12:47pm Nov 29, 2017 12:47pm
AUDUSD Week 48 Nov 29 ...near month end closing tomorrow.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Week 48 Nov 29.png Size: 67 KB


are we in range trading this week?

is there a breakout opportunity?

is there agreement between MN and W1 and D1?


Zoom out and look at the W1, where are we now using this picture below?

Attached Image
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,706
  • Nov 29, 2017 1:04pm Nov 29, 2017 1:04pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} thanks for your observations. i donīt trade ranges, i prefer range breakouts. why? letīs say both environments have the same likelihood for a given time period (ranging/breakout). if you trade the range which in most cases means low vola and low volume, your chances are limited. but you have the constant risk of news hitting the market which can increase vola and volume and hence will cause a range breakout with good momentum (since most markets are semi-strong form efficiency). so the risk is normally greater than the chance. maybe iīm...

Hi,

I agree with you. There are narrow range market in forex which is not worth the effort and money to trade. I usually try and avoid trading such narrow range market and wait for breakout opportunities.

The stock market is very different and I trade the breakout when there is increase in volume which is an important piece of information.

regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,707
  • Nov 29, 2017 1:22pm Nov 29, 2017 1:22pm
AUDCAD Week 49 Nov 29 ... its month end trading tomorrow.

Do you see opportunity in the coming days and weeks, from next week til Dec 18 and in Jan 2018?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD Week 48 Nov 29.png Size: 67 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,708
  • Nov 29, 2017 1:26pm Nov 29, 2017 1:26pm
EURUSD ... potential range trading from next week but that also means an opportunity for breakout.
Look at Weekly close tomorrow to confirm.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Week 48 Nov 29.png Size: 54 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,709
  • Nov 29, 2017 1:30pm Nov 29, 2017 1:30pm
NZDUSD Week 48 Nov 29

We are in range trading this week and this week's swing high at the previous 2 weeks high of that range. Know that candle and use its information.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD Week 48 Nov 29.png Size: 55 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,710
  • Nov 29, 2017 3:54pm Nov 29, 2017 3:54pm
Emm, I'm still trying to work out what a kedge account. Is. I know what a kedge anchor is. A light anchor to help a ship/boat turn more quickly. Does this bear a resemblance to you kedge account?
  • #83,711
  • Nov 29, 2017 4:06pm Nov 29, 2017 4:06pm
Hi guys
Just taken a sell trade on the EURGBP.
HA candle one bar back was the setup with the 2nd bar closing outside the PAC. The tdi was at 50 with a 4/5
o'clock angle. Slight resistance but as I read it normally takes 3 times to break S/R plus with a brexit deal near we could see the pound become week.
Cheers
Craig
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #83,712
  • Nov 29, 2017 7:23pm Nov 29, 2017 7:23pm
Quoting irishcraig09
Hi guys Just taken a sell trade on the EURGBP. HA candle one bar back was the setup with the 2nd bar closing outside the PAC. The tdi was at 50 with a 4/5 o'clock angle. Slight resistance but as I read it normally takes 3 times to break S/R plus with a brexit deal near we could see the pound become week. Cheers Craig {image}

Very good one taken on D1 ...

Now you must have your exit plan in mind.

some trader sees 0.8500 but that is still far away. I am not saying it wont reach that level but there are challenge ahead.

2018 will be the year for EU, GU and EG trading.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,713
  • Nov 29, 2017 7:25pm Nov 29, 2017 7:25pm
GBP pairs big players this week.

GBPJPY example of range trading.

If you have done your Weekly top down analysis, you would know which are the better pairs to trade.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY Week 48 raneg trading.png Size: 50 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY Week 48 H4 trade opportunity.png Size: 54 KB


when Weekly is in range, the better timeframe to trade is H4. But first you must know the range and the volatility of the pair.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,714
  • Nov 29, 2017 7:42pm Nov 29, 2017 7:42pm
Quoting nigpig
Emm, I'm still trying to work out what a kedge account. Is. I know what a kedge anchor is. A light anchor to help a ship/boat turn more quickly. Does this bear a resemblance to you kedge account?
Briefly, a KEDGE account is an account you open with profits from your master account. Some people call that house money but I hate that term 'house money' because all profits becomes my money.
Kedging is an art which a yachtsman must learn during his/her seamanship course before he/she qualifies.
Kedge account trading is quite similar in that you must know how and where to maneuver in and out of 'good and bad' markets. This is why I put emphasis on traders having a Plan A, Plan B and Plan C when they start trading long term.

Look at GBPNZD discussed this week, if Plan A was sell, which is against the MN and W1, then Plan B must be different. Plan C is for the breakout which will be confirmed after this week closing.
If you use your master account for to trade Plan A, then you can activate your kedge account to trade Plan B yesterday.
Plan A must cut loss using 2 weekly high look back. No 'ifs, no 'buts' etc. Be discipline or else the market will discipline you.

So much for now, more in 2018 time permitting.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,715
  • Nov 29, 2017 7:58pm Nov 29, 2017 7:58pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
AUDUSD Week 48 Nov 29 ...near month end closing tomorrow. {image} are we in range trading this week? is there a breakout opportunity? is there agreement between MN and W1 and D1? Zoom out and look at the W1, where are we now using this picture below? {image}

AUDUSD Nov 30, last trading day for this November month.

A lot of market noise today as we are MN shadow trading.

You can't make out if there are really longer term sellers or buyers.

I would rather wait for the breakout . Keep my trading capital safe for trading other pairs.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,716
  • Nov 30, 2017 2:58am Nov 30, 2017 2:58am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Briefly, a KEDGE account is an account you open with profits from your master account. Some people call that house money but I hate that term 'house money' because all profits becomes my money. Kedging is an art which a yachtsman must learn during his/her seamanship course before he/she qualifies. Kedge account trading is quite similar in that you must know how and where to maneuver in and out of 'good and bad' markets. This is why I put emphasis on traders having a Plan A, Plan B and Plan C when they start trading long term. Look at GBPNZD...
hi emmanuell,

to be honest, iīve never heard of a kedge account. what is the advantage? i mean, if one is trading the same underlying/instrument, i canīt see any with the exception of avoiding country-specific regulations (no hedging allowed f.e.) or separation of profits from the main account for security reasons when account is above deposit guarantee level.

kind regards
d1
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #83,717
  • Nov 30, 2017 3:21am Nov 30, 2017 3:21am
HI Emm, I have a question regarding stop loss. There are old posts where you explained that the stop loss is calculated from average entry price. For example:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...15#post8810115

Now I have 2 trades (GBPNZD and EURCAD) with my 5th position filled (I'm short), because the average entry price is higher, the stop loss for the whole position is higher too. That means that the stop loss for the first position ( the first 0.20 %) is higher that the original stop loss ( the same happen with the 2nd, 3rd, ...positions). Also, that means that the total risk for the whole position is not longer 1%, it's more.

I think, maybe, there is something I didn't understand well, isn't it? Can you clarify please?
  • #83,718
  • Nov 30, 2017 7:00am Nov 30, 2017 7:00am
Hi Emmanuel, what is the criterion for taking profits in a trading range and in a trend? When do we stop opening new basket of trades?

Thank you
  • #83,719
  • Nov 30, 2017 7:24am Nov 30, 2017 7:24am
Hi, I'm done for this week. This has been a terrible week, almost all my profits are gone. I've preferred to close all my open trades today because if I didn't all my profits are in danger. So I 'm only 44.54 in profit (5044.52).
Obviously, I need to revise my trades and changes some things, and I'm going to do it.
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  • #83,720
  • Nov 30, 2017 8:18am Nov 30, 2017 8:18am
Emm, sometimes you said that your average positions for a basket are 3.5. Knowing this, why to open the 5th position (most probably, will be a loser)? why no to adjust the stop size? for example 2.5 ATR 100 (D1)?
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