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Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #1,801
  • Nov 18, 2017 5:22pm Nov 18, 2017 5:22pm
Quoting priceaction1
if you remember the high of cable.
Oh come on now. Nobody cares how many magic calls you made - I can send you a whole 200MB PDF that shows clearly I'm fucking Gandalf and can not only predict but make the future. I can not only remember the high in cable, I can also remember the not quite high of e/u in 2008 @ 1.50 where I thought it couldn't go much further. Guess what, I was right, if you define the boundary conditions for "right" accordingly.

All of this is completely irrelevant and useless.

If you can't or won't explain your process, I just don't care.
  • #1,802
  • Nov 18, 2017 6:02pm Nov 18, 2017 6:02pm
Quoting venividivici
Only two are needed. {image}
Yes. And how would they look like if you started them 1 minute / 17 minutes / 3.5 hours ago or last Thursday? Different.

This is one of the low hanging fruit and huge timesavers you can take away from this thread: candlesticks don't mean shit.
  • #1,803
  • Nov 18, 2017 6:39pm Nov 18, 2017 6:39pm
Quoting Broke
You can't create a game with positive expectancy on random data. Working with that idea in mind, I suddenly found myself with a lot less work to do.........where does market data deviate from random data? Is it possible to define price points that show a better-than-random propensity to become turning points?
FWIW I see things very similarly to you. I posted a list of some non-random phenomena in myth #22 here. As this is a public forum, I don't want to give the game away, but I've satisfied myself that a few of these, combined with some basic FA, can give one a very solid starting point. It's a case of finding potentially overriding reasons for bias, and then using key zones and flows to fine tune your timing.
  • #1,804
  • Nov 18, 2017 6:40pm Nov 18, 2017 6:40pm
Quoting Broke
{quote} Yes. And how would they look like if you started them 1 minute / 17 minutes / 3.5 hours ago or last Thursday? Different. This is one of the low hanging fruit and huge timesavers you can take away from this thread: candlesticks don't mean shit.
Yes you need to combine candlesticks with price action, but price action without candlesticks isnt shit either.
  • #1,805
  • Nov 18, 2017 7:34pm Nov 18, 2017 7:34pm
posting a chart with an entry point would n't take more than 1 minute, & the OP could have saved all these talks arguments & "wastage of time" of unfortunate Forex-factory folks who don't have a "3rd eye".

Not all edges are trade-able, let alone profitably. Its like saying, there's a 100% guaranty there will be 24 candles in the hourly chart by the end of today.

Either he thinks himself bestowed with "alien-ish knowledge" or his strategy "a digital ATM-box".

The OP wants to help people by making them waste their time reading 91 pages!

That's really helpful after all!
  • #1,806
  • Edited 10:00pm Nov 18, 2017 8:16pm | Edited 10:00pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} FWIW I see things very similarly to you. I posted a list of some non-random phenomena in myth #22 here. As this is a public forum, I don't want to give the game away, but I've satisfied myself that a few of these, combined with some basic FA, can give one a very solid starting point. It's a case of finding potentially overriding reasons for bias, and then using key zones and flows to fine tune your timing.
Exactly, that's how this game is played to win, "potentially overriding reasons for bias" is a necessary safe practice to trade within limited risk.

Quoting hanover
In reality, "randomness" is a euphemism for either a lack of information; or a lack of knowledge about what information is available, and how to use it profitably.
Have been saying all along it all boils down to lack of knowledge, it might sound offensive but that's the reality. No trader will open short trades if they knew beforehand the market will go up a 100pips, right.

Quoting tm9
posting a chart with an entry point would n't take more than 1 minute, & the OP [and CP] could have saved all these talks arguments & "wastage of time" of unfortunate Forex-factory folks who don't have a "3rd eye". Not all edges are trade-able, let alone profitably. Its like saying, there's a 100% guaranty there will be 24 candles in the hourly chart by the end of today. Either he thinks himself bestowed with "alien-ish knowledge" or his strategy "a digital ATM-box". The OP wants to help people by making them waste their time reading 91 pages! That's really...
Spot on comment !
  • #1,807
  • Nov 18, 2017 11:11pm Nov 18, 2017 11:11pm
Quoting Broke
{quote} Oh come on now. Nobody cares how many magic calls you made - I can send you a whole 200MB PDF that shows clearly I'm fucking Gandalf and can not only predict but make the future. I can not only remember the high in cable, I can also remember the not quite high of e/u in 2008 @ 1.50 where I thought it couldn't go much further. Guess what, I was right, if you define the boundary conditions for "right" accordingly. All of this is completely irrelevant and useless. If you can't or won't explain your process, I just don't care.
love you
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #1,808
  • Nov 19, 2017 12:26am Nov 19, 2017 12:26am
The problem is, even if you find a non-random pattern, it would be hard if not impossible to exploit it. The market may not be 100% efficient, but it is very efficient. Any price discrepancies would be quickly targeted by arbitrageurs working for banks or hedge funds - the general trading public would jump in way too late.
  • #1,809
  • Nov 19, 2017 6:15am Nov 19, 2017 6:15am
Quoting Broke
... I could focus instead on one thing only: where does market data deviate from random data?...
there is not random data.
NO MATTER THE SITUATION,NEVER LET YOUR EMOTIONS OVERPOWER YOUR INTELLIGENCE
  • #1,810
  • Nov 21, 2017 1:25pm Nov 21, 2017 1:25pm
Quoting Trader-Waldo
there is not random data.
If you say that a bunch of numbers need to carry information before it can be called "data", point taken.
  • #1,811
  • Nov 21, 2017 1:46pm Nov 21, 2017 1:46pm
Quoting hanover
I posted a list of some non-random phenomena in myth #22 here.
I sure wish I read that whole post, and not only #22, before I started digging on my own... but maybe I wouldn't have been able to really appreciate it. Awesome post, kudos.
  • #1,812
  • Nov 21, 2017 2:00pm Nov 21, 2017 2:00pm
Inconclusive: the x-axis seems to be not really important.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-e-m2-roboforex-cy-ltd.png Size: 39 KB


It's 10 pips between the grey lines, plenty enough to make some $ even considering spread, comm, special broker features. When I grow up, I want to be able to do this on a 20 pip renko...
  • #1,813
  • Nov 22, 2017 2:29am Nov 22, 2017 2:29am
Quoting Broke
{quote} If you say that a bunch of numbers need to carry information before it can be called "data", point taken.
it is not on retail trader to classify data as random. market makers interpret data as per their wish since they can move price and retail trader cannot. market makers decide when and how to trade available information....and so on....by now you should understand that and accept it.
NO MATTER THE SITUATION,NEVER LET YOUR EMOTIONS OVERPOWER YOUR INTELLIGENCE
  • #1,814
  • Nov 22, 2017 10:14am Nov 22, 2017 10:14am
Attached Image
Live today like theres no tomorrow-- Prioritize like you will die today
  • #1,815
  • Nov 22, 2017 12:19pm Nov 22, 2017 12:19pm
Quoting Broke
I sure wish I read that whole post, and not only #22, before I started digging on my own... but maybe I wouldn't have been able to really appreciate it.
Thanks. You might enjoy the videos of Tom Dante (if you haven't already discovered him). He's a successful ex-prop trader who tends think along some similar, no-nonsense lines. (He's also a very colorful character, so expect some bad language!!)
  • #1,816
  • Edited 1:30pm Nov 22, 2017 1:07pm | Edited 1:30pm
Quoting Broke
Inconclusive: the x-axis seems to be not really important. {image} It's 10 pips between the grey lines, plenty enough to make some $ even considering spread, comm, special broker features. When I grow up, I want to be able to do this on a 20 pip renko...
and how do you trade that ?
  • #1,817
  • Nov 22, 2017 1:13pm Nov 22, 2017 1:13pm
Quoting Trader-Waldo
market makers interpret data as per their wish since they can move price and retail trader cannot. market makers decide when and how to trade available information
Yes. Maybe. Or not. I don't work in this industry, I have no inside knowledge about anything. I can tell when a number series starts to deviate from what you would expect from random data, that's all. And that's definitely not my own invention, I wish I were smart enough to cook up something like that

Honestly I have no idea what the market makers in an OTC crapshot funfair market like FX can or can't do. You tell me. In the end, it doesn't make any difference who or what drives price and why. Compare EURUSD from the day before yesterday, yesterday and today. Combine all the info you have and decide when and where you want to bet small, bet big, bet not at all.

!RocketScience
  • #1,818
  • Nov 22, 2017 1:15pm Nov 22, 2017 1:15pm
Quoting hanover
{quote}Thanks. You might enjoy the videos of Tom Dante (if you haven't already discovered him). He's a successful ex-prop trader who tends think along some similar, no-nonsense lines. (He's also a very colorful character, so expect some bad language!!)

Yes I already watched everything from Tom he ever put on Youtube, love that guy! And his bad language, it's nearly as bad as mine
  • #1,819
  • Nov 22, 2017 1:39pm Nov 22, 2017 1:39pm
Quoting metta87
{quote} how do you trade that ?
It's a renko chart. Without the time component, you don't get "signals" on a chart that just chops back and forth anymore, but you also lose the idea of how far / how fast if you can't watch it all the time, because the time component is missing. It's a trade-off really. I condensed everything I learned from this thread and others into the x signs. It's pretty much impossible to lose money following them, even spread and comm included. Edit: now I just need to figure out how to not break even, but actually end up with a "+" with them.

BTW, today's E/U is a nice example why you shouldn't short from the daily high. Imagine the pain.

Edit: see Edit....
  • #1,820
  • Nov 22, 2017 1:41pm Nov 22, 2017 1:41pm
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