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  • #1,138,121
  • Nov 22, 2017 2:10am Nov 22, 2017 2:10am
Quoting mbrown
I'm long EURUSD and deciding my next move. Also looking at GBPNZD.
are you considering selling the UML or do you think bull are too strong and it will break going for the next paralel line on the white?
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  • #1,138,122
  • Nov 22, 2017 2:22am Nov 22, 2017 2:22am
Quoting mihai1986
{quote} are you considering selling the UML or do you think bull are too strong and it will break going for the next paralel line on the white?

I try to avoid trading against the direction of the Pitchfork. The better option would be to wait until the price crosses the UML then buy touches of the UML on the other side.

Possible paths of price attached. (excuse the algo trade lines).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM15.png Size: 29 KB
  • #1,138,123
  • Nov 22, 2017 2:42am Nov 22, 2017 2:42am
Quoting mbrown
{quote} I try to avoid trading against the direction of the Pitchfork. The better option would be to wait until the price crosses the UML then buy touches of the UML on the other side. Possible paths of price attached. (excuse the algo trade lines). {image}
ok, that makes sense thanks
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  • #1,138,124
  • Nov 22, 2017 2:49am Nov 22, 2017 2:49am
Lifted SL on longs to 1.17 34 Have a good day crew.

  • #1,138,125
  • Nov 22, 2017 2:50am Nov 22, 2017 2:50am
Quoting F.g
Lifted SL on longs to 1.17 34 Have a good day crew.
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  • #1,138,126
  • Nov 22, 2017 2:53am Nov 22, 2017 2:53am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote}
all those without drinking
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  • #1,138,127
  • Nov 22, 2017 2:57am Nov 22, 2017 2:57am
Quoting mihai1986
{quote} all those without drinking
ok, no drinking ...for now ... but just because is too early for that
...and because we still need to keep our eyes wide open and work hard to pull our buck from this FX mess
Member
  • #1,138,128
  • Edited 3:15am Nov 22, 2017 3:03am | Edited 3:15am
Quoting mbrown
{quote} I try to avoid trading against the direction of the Pitchfork. The better option would be to wait until the price crosses the UML then buy touches of the UML on the other side. Possible paths of price attached. (excuse the algo trade lines). {image}
I'd prefer a deeper retrace to 1.1750 to reenter my long but if price extents entry will have to be above 1.1770 as per the chart above (buying back at a higher price will always feel unnatural to humans but in trading sometimes it is the best thing to do).

I haven't bought yet as price has to break above the 1.1770 then bounce of the line in the chart above.


I should mention, the purple line is a daily Pitchfork ML. It shouldn't be easy for price to cross it so if it does expect a nice move north. One would be justified to enter a short at this location given the daily ML but a wide stop (100pips) would be needed with a PT of 300 pips. Not my type of trade.
  • #1,138,129
  • Nov 22, 2017 3:16am Nov 22, 2017 3:16am
Quoting mbrown
{quote} I'd prefer a deeper retrace to 1.1750 to reenter my long but if price extents entry will have to be above 1.1770 as per the chart above (buying back at a higher price will always feel unnatural to humans but in trading sometimes it is the best thing to do). I haven't bought yet as price has to break above the 1.1770 then bounce of the line in the chart above. I should mention, the purple line is a daily Pitchfork ML. It shouldn't be easy for price to cross it so if it does expect a nice move north.
i keep it at H1 and M30 pitchfork.
D1 i trade very rarely. but i look on it every day to get the big picture. until now i have not draw any pitchfork on higher timeframe as H1
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  • #1,138,130
  • Nov 22, 2017 3:19am Nov 22, 2017 3:19am
Quoting mihai1986
{quote} i keep it at H1 and M30 pitchfork. D1 i trade very rarely. but i look on it every day to get the big picture. until now i have not draw any pitchfork on higher timeframe as H1
It never hurts to have the macro view, even if you only look at it at the beginning of the trading week. It's a 10 minute job to go from monthly, weekly, daily, 4 hour etc. After all the higher time frames dominate lower ones so knowing there is a daily ML exactly at this location and it seems to be holding up price simply adds weight to your 15m and 30min analysis. Confluence is a good and powerful thing.

If I was in a counter trend frame of mind, I'd take a short with a 6 pip stop loss and PT at 1.1748 solely on the strength of the daily ML. But why trade against the short term trend when there could be a powerful breakout to the topside?
  • #1,138,131
  • Nov 22, 2017 3:27am Nov 22, 2017 3:27am
Quoting mbrown
{quote} It never hurts to have the macro view, even if you only look at it at the beginning of the trading week. It's a 10 minute job to go from monthly, weekly, daily, 4 hour etc. After all the higher time frames dominate lower ones so knowing there is a daily ML exactly at this location and it seems to be holding up price simply adds weight to your 15m and 30min analysis. Confluence is a good and powerful thing. If I was in a counter trend frame of mind, I'd take a short with a 6 pip stop loss and PT at 1.1748 solely on the strength of the daily...
great, but i don't see the clear points to draw the pitchfork on D1
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  • #1,138,132
  • Edited 3:54am Nov 22, 2017 3:32am | Edited 3:54am
Quoting mihai1986
{quote} great, but i don't see the clear points to draw the pitchfork on D1
You were provided with the indy...semafor. Draw it from the 4th yellow pivot back and if the PF doesn't describe press will move to the 6th pivot etc. All the yellow pivots are correct BUT the correct pivot for Pitchforks will mean the drawn PF (from those pivots) will describe and contain price well. I have to draw multiple PFs before I see the best one but it doesn't take long once you're used to it.


LONG SIGNAL THE 15M MODEL
LONG SIGNAL THE ONE HOUR MODEL
NO SIGNAL THE 4 HOUR MODEL
LONG SIGNAL THE DAILY MODEL
LONG SIGNAL THE WEEKLY MODEL
LONG SIGNAL THE MONTHLY MODEL

These models have between 60 to 95% accuracy. I wonder which way price is heading!


GBPNZD is moving in the right direction nicely entry long at 11:59.

GBPNZD: Also long entry signal on the 15min model. I've entered a small long trade although price has slipped a bit because I noticed the signal 7 minutes late and GBPNZD doesn't wait for no man!
  • #1,138,133
  • Nov 22, 2017 3:43am Nov 22, 2017 3:43am
Quoting mbrown
{quote} You were provided with the indy...semafor. Draw it from the 4th yellow pivot back and if the PF doesn't describe press will move to the 6th pivot etc. All the yellow pivots are correct BUT the correct pivot for Pitchforks will mean the drawn PF (from those pivots) will describe and contain price well. I have to draw multiple PFs before I see the best one but it doesn't take long once you're used to it.
thanks. i am just getting in touch with it. i'll be better every day
i have a nice one on H4
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  • #1,138,134
  • Edited 4:23am Nov 22, 2017 3:55am | Edited 4:23am
Quoting mihai1986
{quote} thanks. i am just getting in touch with it. i'll be better every day i have a nice one on H4
You'll have it in no time. Practice makes perfect.

Looking for EURUSD buy opportunities @ 1.1748 IF HOURLY MODEL IS LONGS ARE STILL HOT!

Hourly confirm is in and it's a ... open more longs! Scaling in from the current price.

Maximum: 15 pips SL


Managed to add to my GBPNZD position at a lower price (I do not advocate averaging down but scaling in is different because you're spliting you're standard trade size as opposed averaging down using your standard trade size). I forgot manual trading was so exhausting!


Quoting mbrown
{quote} If I was in a counter trend frame of mind, I'd take a short with a 6 pip stop loss and PT at 1.1748 solely on the strength of the daily ML. But why trade against the short term trend when there could be a powerful breakout to the topside?
Hmmm...that daily PF is in a downtrend so technically I would have been justified taking the trade above. SMH!


10:23: EURUSD - 15 minute is still long and signaling exit shorts.
  • #1,138,135
  • Nov 22, 2017 4:23am Nov 22, 2017 4:23am
Quoting mbrown
{quote} You'll have it in no time. Practice makes perfect. Looking for EURUSD buy opportunities @ 1.1748 IF HOURLY MODEL IS LONGS ARE STILL HOT! Hourly confirm is in and it's a ... open more longs! Scaling in from the current price. Maximum: 15 pips SL Managed to add to my GBPNZD position at a lower price (I do not advocate averaging down but scaling in is different because you're spliting you're standard trade size as opposed averaging down using your standard trade size). I forgot manual trading was so exhausting! {quote} Hmmm...that daily PF...
i know. i wanted to sell at the UML but i missed the moment. now looking for a buy
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  • #1,138,136
  • Edited 9:20am Nov 22, 2017 4:26am | Edited 9:20am
Quoting mihai1986
{quote} i know. i wanted to sell at the UML but i missed the moment. now looking for a buy

Just a reminder to those who are following. Obviously the ML may not hold price and it could head lower. The possibility exists.


15min model: is long and signalled to hold. (which means probabilities have moved against bulls).


But then I remembered:

LONG SIGNAL THE 15M MODEL
LONG SIGNAL THE ONE HOUR MODEL
NO SIGNAL THE 4 HOUR MODEL
LONG SIGNAL THE DAILY MODEL
LONG SIGNAL THE WEEKLY MODEL
LONG SIGNAL THE MONTHLY MODEL

These models have between 60 to 95% accuracy. I wonder which way price is heading!

10:40: Closing GBPNZD for a small loss. Models have not signalled an exit but these models are not fully coded yet so I'm in the background doing a load of manual stuff which is too much work for two pairs. Focus on EURUSD and revisit GBPNZD after the EURUSD models are fully coded and deployed.


11:00 Hourly - Long; 15m hold long

11:22: 15m GBPNZD signalled short at 11 but missed the signal. It's a good model.

I am very very very excited about the 15min GBPNZD model. It is early days but I am very excited. Will post signals as soon as it's complete. No later than next Monday.

15 hold long



REMINDER: 88% ACCURACY. GBPNZD LONG AT 11:59. DON'T FORGET USE SL AT 1930 AND REMEMBER THE NEWS AT 12:30. PERHAPS YOU SHOULD WAIT UNTIL AFTER THE NEWS OR USE MICRO LOT.

15m: hold long
60m hold long
4 hour no signal


This is one long post. GBPNZD immediately into profit but let's see what happens at 12:30.


EURUSD is breaking lower SLs @ 1.1735 (no shame in being wrong as long as you live to fight another day).

Okay. That is me done for the day. I need to sleep. I will leave my stops at 1735 and allow the price to move up as per models or be stopped out as per risk control and I will check on the GBPNZD in 4 hours time.

Happy trading!


14:25 1H Long - exit shorts. GBPNZD Exit or use tight stop if you haven't been stopped already.


EVEN IF THE EURUSD RETRACES PLEASE REMEMBER:


LONG SIGNAL THE ONE HOUR MODEL
NO SIGNAL THE 4 HOUR MODEL
LONG SIGNAL THE DAILY MODEL
LONG SIGNAL THE WEEKLY MODEL
LONG SIGNAL THE MONTHLY MODEL


14:48 - EURUSD: IT IS NOT GOING DOWN FROM THOSE LEVELS. CONSIDER ADDING TO YOUR POSITION WITH A STOP AT 1765.

14:56: a TOUCH OF THE PURPLE LINE WOULD BE THE IDEAL ENTRY POINT.

But waiting the price to hit that point may mean missing the train north.

If you're mad and angry because you missed the train, lost your nerve so closed your positions for a small loss or profit or had an intransigent bear forecast...don't worry...there will be another train journey tomorrow...destination? We'll see.

15:12: traded a couple of 15m GBPNZD signals the first one was easy money, still holding the second as the price violently moves up or down. This pair is not for the faint hearted. Like others I often complain about the lack of EURUSD volatility but in truth at least there is normally no risk of a heart attack trading it. The GBPNZD is a beast where 50 to 100 pip moves in minutes is common place. Exciting? No. Scary? Yes until the trader gets used to it.

You will see I managed to get the path of price wrong by 15 pips. Shame on me.

15:20: 15m short signal given for GBPNZD.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM15.png Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD15.jpg Size: 24 KB
  • #1,138,137
  • Nov 22, 2017 9:33am Nov 22, 2017 9:33am
Quoting mbrown
{quote} Just a reminder to those who are following. Obviously the ML may not hold price and it could head lower. The possibility exists. 15min model: is long and signalled to hold. (which means probabilities have moved against bulls). But then I remembered: LONG SIGNAL THE 15M MODEL LONG SIGNAL THE ONE HOUR MODEL NO SIGNAL THE 4 HOUR MODEL LONG SIGNAL THE DAILY MODEL LONG SIGNAL THE WEEKLY MODEL LONG SIGNAL THE MONTHLY MODEL These models have between 60 to 95% accuracy. I wonder which way price is heading! 10:40: Closing GBPNZD for a small loss....
price at the top white line
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  • #1,138,138
  • Edited 10:07am Nov 22, 2017 9:40am | Edited 10:07am
Quoting mihai1986
{quote} price at the top white line
And there's a lot more upside in the tank I think.


1 hour: is still long and advising to buy at this level.
4 hour: correction - exit shorts
  • #1,138,139
  • Nov 22, 2017 9:56am Nov 22, 2017 9:56am
Quoting mbrown
{quote} And there's a lot more upside in the tank I think.
1.1820 will be my top line if it goes above 1.1800
i am tilt a bit. i closed my long early. should have set a trail, but accidentally i stopped it. done my 20 pips for the day. coul have done much more. i'll take the sale when it goes down. i don't know why, but i won't get in another long for now.
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  • #1,138,140
  • Nov 22, 2017 10:11am Nov 22, 2017 10:11am
Quoting mihai1986
{quote} 1.1820 will be my top line if it goes above 1.1800 i am tilt a bit. i closed my long early. should have set a trail, but accidentally i stopped it. done my 20 pips for the day. coul have done much more. i'll take the sale when it goes down. i don't know why, but i won't get in another long for now.
IMHO that is a wise decision. I am also looking to exit my longs before the news then have some rest. There's always tomorrow.
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