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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #71,481
  • Nov 16, 2017 8:04am Nov 16, 2017 8:04am
Snooze.

Markets have been already factoring in it not happening. Or at least not anytime soon and anywhere near as big a break.
  • #71,482
  • Nov 16, 2017 8:20am Nov 16, 2017 8:20am
USD/JPY rebounded from 112.47 but I don't think the correction to the downside has ended. A further drop to 111.70 is still possible.
  • #71,483
  • Nov 16, 2017 8:32am Nov 16, 2017 8:32am
Quoting SunTrader
Snooze. Markets have been already factoring in it not happening. Or at least not anytime soon and anywhere near as big a break.
Oh really??? Based on what?

Goldman sachs analysts are putting it at 80%
  • #71,484
  • Nov 16, 2017 8:39am Nov 16, 2017 8:39am
Quoting Nicholishen
{quote} Oh really??? Based on what? Goldman sachs analysts are putting it at 80%
I agree with Goldman - not that they care - not any time soon.

"80% chance tax reform is completed by early 2018."

Do you think they mean first working day of the New Year Jan 2nd lol. Anyway with this nutjob administration who knows really.

The Wall was supposed to be built by now, tax reform done, ACA repealed, infrastructure plan in place, budget on its way to being balanced, military rebuilt and Aaaaaaaamerica Great Again. Instead all we got is yet another boring reality TV show complete with the Kardashian Kat Fights.
  • #71,485
  • Nov 16, 2017 8:43am Nov 16, 2017 8:43am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} I agree with Goldman - not that they care - not any time soon. "80% chance tax reform is completed by early 2018." Do you think they mean first working day of the New Year Jan 2nd lol. Anyway with this nutjob administration who knows really. The Wall was supposed to be built by now, tax reform done, ACA repealed, infrastructure plan in place, budget on its way to being balanced, military rebuilt and Aaaaaaaamerica Great Again. Instead all we got is yet another boring reality TV show complete with the Kardashian Kat Fights.
Ok, so you agree that tax reform will be passed, but you know the market has priced-in it not happening? Which is it?
  • #71,486
  • Nov 16, 2017 8:52am Nov 16, 2017 8:52am
Selling is the way to go these days. A test of 111 seems inevitable.
  • #71,487
  • Nov 16, 2017 8:55am Nov 16, 2017 8:55am
Sentiment update.

The trade is 4xjunkie long to 115.495 darth pip short to 107.5 first strike wins.

4xjunkie,ohlc,nagamas,csc2009,kingoswing,pipqueen18, redbellyfx are in the green camp.

darthpip,nagamas,Mr.yen,SckT, catroot,totsky, are the red camp.

Nicholishen, is in the chop-camp until the final word on this tax plan.
axecap is short to 107
kasper,mwfinad1211 is out for now.
moneyfocus dumped his longs.
anyone wants in just say what camp you want to be in and ill add you. it just for fun. This could be the last time on this one.
  • #71,488
  • Nov 16, 2017 9:07am Nov 16, 2017 9:07am
Looks like the Central Banks have killed off the U/J & US Equity Index correlation for now.
  • #71,489
  • Nov 16, 2017 9:07am Nov 16, 2017 9:07am
I believe this is the last chance in.
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  • #71,490
  • Nov 16, 2017 9:14am Nov 16, 2017 9:14am
Quoting 4xjunkie
I believe this is the last chance in. {image}
Yeap mate... very soon
  • #71,491
  • Nov 16, 2017 9:40am Nov 16, 2017 9:40am
Quoting Nicholishen
{quote} Ok, so you agree that tax reform will be passed, but you know the market has priced-in it not happening? Which is it?
Get someone else to spoon fed you.
  • #71,492
  • Nov 16, 2017 11:35am Nov 16, 2017 11:35am
Sell UJ, targeting 112.60
  • #71,493
  • Nov 16, 2017 1:03pm Nov 16, 2017 1:03pm
Long and raised SL to 112.76

  • #71,494
  • Nov 16, 2017 1:31pm Nov 16, 2017 1:31pm
Entered long USD/JPY above 113.00, SL 30 pips.
The market is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time.
  • #71,495
  • Nov 16, 2017 1:55pm Nov 16, 2017 1:55pm
Quoting F.g
Long and raised SL to 112.76
Now at 112.95 ...urgently...
  • #71,496
  • Nov 16, 2017 2:11pm Nov 16, 2017 2:11pm
So far looks good for flight, want to say it's a pole, flag,pole,flag,pole situation, the pause around 114.5 will look tempitng give it some time 115.49 will happen.good luck traders.
  • #71,497
  • Nov 16, 2017 4:30pm Nov 16, 2017 4:30pm
Amazing how those "self-fulfilling" Fibs work retroactively to before they were even discovered by RN Elliott. Somehow all those traders and investors during the roaring 20's knew about them ... before they knew about them. Here's a chart I save on my desktop of the crash and initial bottom of '29 and retracement in '30:
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  • #71,498
  • Nov 16, 2017 4:51pm Nov 16, 2017 4:51pm
Quoting SunTrader
Amazing how those "self-fulfilling" Fibs work retroactively to before they were even discovered by RN Elliott. Somehow all those traders and investors during the roaring 20's knew about them ... before they knew about them. Here's a chart I save on my desktop of the crash and initial bottom of '29 and retracement in '30: {image}
I think most turning points occur because of what happened to the left so fibs, mov. av., etc.... just happen to be in the same "area" at times :-)

Just my opinion :-)
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  • #71,499
  • Edited 5:52pm Nov 16, 2017 5:19pm | Edited 5:52pm
Quoting srt
{quote} I think most turning points occur because of what happened to the left so fibs, mov. av., etc.... just happen to be in the same "area" at times :-) Just my opinion :-) {image}
Oh absolutely. But how do you explain when previous support doesn't line up with new resistance such as new ATH at top of crash or current ATH's with Dow/S&P etc?

As for MA's come on seriously?
  • #71,500
  • Nov 16, 2017 5:57pm Nov 16, 2017 5:57pm
After U/J decoupled from US Equities on such a bullish day, it continues to lead me to believe there is strong overhead resistance and massive sell orders. Wish we could get out of this chopzone so I could take a position again. Oh well, hopefully after Dec Fed Meeting...
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