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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #71,461
  • Nov 15, 2017 5:15pm Nov 15, 2017 5:15pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Oh now you've gone a done it you rule breaker you. Be ready for all kinds of traders claiming "you can't do that". Pulling the fib from breakout bar and then truncating the spike at the bottom. Nice. That's how I do it too. Thumbs up!!
So drawing fibs wherever you want on a chart without any logic in order to line up 61.8 is the correct way? Am I doing this right?
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  • #71,462
  • Nov 15, 2017 5:28pm Nov 15, 2017 5:28pm
Quoting Nicholishen
{quote} So drawing fibs wherever you want on a chart without any logic in order to line up 61.8 is the correct way? Am I doing this right?{image}

So is it just coincidence that if you use the same logic to pick points as I have on many retracements of many different trends on many different pairs they bounce off key fib levels?

Be honest brother, are you long USDJPY?

Edit: Also are there some written rules on using fibs or are they down to interpretation like basically everything in trading?
  • #71,463
  • Edited Nov 16, 2017 2:09am Nov 15, 2017 5:58pm | Edited Nov 16, 2017 2:09am
Quoting Seshwaan
{quote} So is it just coincidence that if you use the same logic to pick points as I have on many retracements of many different trends on many different pairs they bounce off key fib levels? Be honest brother, are you long USDJPY? Edit: Also are there some written rules on using fibs or are they down to interpretation like basically everything in trading?
Yes it is written in many resources, relevant swing to relevant swing (highs and lows)... not a random point in the middle of the swing and definitely not close points on any bar, ever. Had you drawn your fib correctly you wouldn've see that we reversed today at exactly 50%.
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My issue with this "creative" technique of yours (and suntrader) is that it spreads misinformation and teaches bad habits to newbies. Additionally, I know for a fact just by looking at your post that your trading plan is full of confirmation bias; there's no way it cannot be because you and ST are the only two traders on the planet putting real money into your creative-funky-fibs. Fibs work because they become a self-fulfilling prophesy, and they only become self-fulfilling when everyone is drawing them the same. Closes and time-frames vary from chart-to-chart, but all charts regardless of TF and Time-zone have the exact same swing-highs <-> swing-lows. There is a right way and wrong way to use fib-tools - and if you aren't using relevant swings - then you aren't looking at the same levels real institutional traders and algos are looking at - and thus, your creative method may get lucky on occasion but is no more relevant than randomly drawn lines.

Regarding your jab at my sentiment, I have been openly bearish since the beginning of the month and in fact I called the support breach right before it happened. My comments were solely directed at the improper use (misinformation spreading) of tech-tools going on ITT.
  • #71,464
  • Nov 15, 2017 6:55pm Nov 15, 2017 6:55pm
Quoting Seshwaan
{quote} So is it just coincidence that if you use the same logic to pick points as I have on many retracements of many different trends on many different pairs they bounce off key fib levels? Be honest brother, are you long USDJPY? Edit: Also are there some written rules on using fibs or are they down to interpretation like basically everything in trading?
Rule# 1 always follow the rules.
Rule# 2 know when not to.
Rule # 3 ignore those who always obey rule# 1. They think they are still in school.
  • #71,465
  • Nov 15, 2017 7:02pm Nov 15, 2017 7:02pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Rule# 1 always follow the rules. Rule# 2 know when not to. Rule # 3 ignore those who always obey rule# 1. They think they are still in school.
That's a totally retarded justification for not knowing how to use TA.
  • #71,466
  • Nov 15, 2017 7:05pm Nov 15, 2017 7:05pm
Quoting Nicholishen
{quote} That's a totally retarded justification for not knowing how to use TA.
Keep telling that if it makes you feel good.
  • #71,467
  • Nov 15, 2017 7:23pm Nov 15, 2017 7:23pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Keep telling that if it makes you feel good.
I call it how I see it. If I were in your shoes and I just read that professional traders all use the same extrema for a reason, I might say say to myself, "hey, that makes a whole lot of fucking sense. Maybe I should take a minute to learn how to spot and use relevant swings and how to connect them with the proper fib tool."
  • #71,468
  • Nov 15, 2017 7:56pm Nov 15, 2017 7:56pm
Quoting Nicholishen
{quote} I call it how I see it. If I were in your shoes and I just read that professional traders all use the same extrema for a reason, I might say say to myself, "hey, that makes a whole lot of fucking sense. Maybe I should take a minute to learn how to spot and use relevant swings and how to connect them with the proper fib tool."
LMAO

Here you go, Ed Seykota one of the Market Wizards, umm ya know a Pro-fess-ion-al, once said:

a. Cut losses.
b. Ride winners.
c. Keep bets small.
d. Follow the rules without question.
e. Know when to break the rules.

Not sure if this link is allowed but here it is if you don't want to take my word for it

https://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/blo...37&language=en

Anyway professionals don't all think and trade alike. The rest of us don't need to either.
  • #71,469
  • Nov 15, 2017 8:11pm Nov 15, 2017 8:11pm
Good day traders, as far as i know any time the bull should show its horns. the only thing that may happen is a retest of 112.5. holding my position at 113.10. folp at 115.48 its not worth missing.
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  • #71,470
  • Edited 8:38pm Nov 15, 2017 8:21pm | Edited 8:38pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} LMAO Here you go, Ed Seykota one of the Market Wizards, umm ya know a Pro-fess-ion-al, once said: a. Cut losses. b. Ride winners. c. Keep bets small. d. Follow the rules without question. e. Know when to break the rules. Not sure if this link is allowed but here it is if you don't want to take my word for it https://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/blo...37&language=en Anyway professionals don't all think and trade alike. The rest of us don't need to either.
Your logic is flawless, I don't know how I didn't see it before!
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  • #71,471
  • Nov 15, 2017 8:39pm Nov 15, 2017 8:39pm
Finally I have my own thread!

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=715256

Dear friends (you know who you are), you are invited!

Actually, everyone is.
  • #71,472
  • Edited 9:34pm Nov 15, 2017 9:16pm | Edited 9:34pm
uj gj ej all seem to be turning up right now.
maybe. it is the 61.8 retracement. i just draw them upside down a lot. for extension reasons.
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  • #71,473
  • Nov 15, 2017 10:31pm Nov 15, 2017 10:31pm
patterns are forming found this one checked my mt4 all over the timeframes. good times ahead.
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  • #71,474
  • Nov 15, 2017 11:06pm Nov 15, 2017 11:06pm
Quoting Mwfinad1211
Price is respecting 4H Bearish Trendline. Don't particularly want to be short or long. Just looks like a chopfest... but what else is new from U/J?
u/jpy has changed trend to short and is moving dawn to 111.372041 almost about 173pips .
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bakare
  • #71,475
  • Nov 15, 2017 11:13pm Nov 15, 2017 11:13pm
Sentiment update.

The trade is 4xjunkie long to 115.495 darth pip short to 107.5 first strike wins.

4xjunkie,ohlc,nagamas,csc2009,kingoswing,pipqueen18 are in the green camp.

darthpip,nagamas,Mr.yen,SckT, catroot,totsky, are the red camp.

Nicholishen, is in the chop-camp until the final word on this tax plan.
axecap is short to 107
kasper,mwfinad1211 is out for now.
moneyfocus dumped his longs.
anyone wants in just say what camp you want to be in and ill add you. it just for fun. Now is as good as time as any.
  • #71,476
  • Nov 16, 2017 12:52am Nov 16, 2017 12:52am
some R at 113.35, and 113.49....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #71,477
  • Nov 16, 2017 3:04am Nov 16, 2017 3:04am
Hi 4xJunkie!
For fun - you can throw me in the green camp :-)
Looking at the 1hr chart, I am thinking we may see another run up from here (113.12) before some hesitation @ 113.55.
I can see a strong cross over of the 20 & 30 MA lines with the 200 MA above proving a point of support/resistance recently!
If it can break through, then the area @ 114.30 could be then next region we head to. You can see on the daily that this area has been an area of some resistance!
Just my thoughts.
Cheers
Redbelly
  • #71,478
  • Nov 16, 2017 6:34am Nov 16, 2017 6:34am
Lot's going on today... don't get caught off-guard by the tax vote which happens sometime after 16:30 GMT. Today should give us some interesting price action... I'm guessing by the calendar there will probably be some good scalping opportunities between 14:30 and 16:30
  • #71,479
  • Nov 16, 2017 7:35am Nov 16, 2017 7:35am
What exactly are the expectations for the tax vote?
  • #71,480
  • Nov 16, 2017 7:50am Nov 16, 2017 7:50am
Quoting Starcraftmaz
What exactly are the expectations for the tax vote?
The dollar will most probably spike to 95 (DXY) and above head for 96 (DXY) with the bill passed !
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