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Proof That Forex is Random video

  • #61
  • Nov 14, 2017 10:59am Nov 14, 2017 10:59am
Quoting dkrock
The currency market cannot be compared to the stock market. When you trade currency you are directly influencing supply and demand....
market always trade supply and demand regardless if it was stock or forex...
NO MATTER THE SITUATION,NEVER LET YOUR EMOTIONS OVERPOWER YOUR INTELLIGENCE
  • #62
  • Nov 14, 2017 11:05am Nov 14, 2017 11:05am
discussions about the randomness or predictability of the financial markets are mostly useless. it has more to do with one's "belief". believers of the opposing poles may produce their "proofs" but they are usually subjective and can not be scientifically proven.
one can categorize financial markets as of a complex adaptive system. these systems have the following main attributes:
- they exist in leaderless, dynamic environment; their participants interact with each other by following the simple rules and create self organized patterns.
just like a flock of starlings.
my thought how to be profitable in this game is understanding and following the basic rules, having statistical edge and managing the trades accordingly.
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As Above, So Below
  • #63
  • Nov 14, 2017 11:27am Nov 14, 2017 11:27am
Quoting dkrock
{quote} Anyone can do anything at anytime = Random. ...
not really "anyone". ..only those who can move price and there are no many who can do it.....and certainly not retail trader like myself.
Since market makers are running their business i am sure then know what they are doing.
NO MATTER THE SITUATION,NEVER LET YOUR EMOTIONS OVERPOWER YOUR INTELLIGENCE
  • #64
  • Nov 14, 2017 2:56pm Nov 14, 2017 2:56pm
Quoting tashkent
discussions about the randomness or predictability of the financial markets are mostly useless. it has more to do with one's "belief". believers of the opposing poles may produce their "proofs" but they are usually subjective and can not be scientifically proven. one can categorize financial markets as of a complex adaptive system. these systems have the following main attributes: - they exist in leaderless, dynamic environment; their participants interact with each other by following the simple rules and create self organized patterns. just like...

Nice post dude. Liked your rhetoric.

Have you found a edge to cover trading costs ? If so how long did it take you to find it?
  • #65
  • Edited 6:33pm Nov 14, 2017 4:30pm | Edited 6:33pm
the whole theory is nonsense cause this guys dont know how a real random chart looks like. he creates pseudo random charts following a pattern.

the pattern is that the M1 candles are in a specific range deviated from real forex charts. of course the high timeframe charts looks like forex with the naked eye cause its a derivate. a real random chart would have some >1000000000 pips and some 1 pip M1 candles. i can see with naked eyes that his M1 chart is pseudo random due the range fact.

nevertheless there are not alot of high accurate patterns in forex so most of the moves are so called "random" cause we dont know how to predict the future out of these moves with an edge and why they happend.

most people dont understand random events.
heres roulette red/black chart (black=+1 and red=-1):
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  • #66
  • Nov 14, 2017 7:46pm Nov 14, 2017 7:46pm
FF is full of that old stupid discussion.

Typical noob: the market is completely random, 100% of the time.

For a pro: there is 90% randomness and 10% of big opportunities.
  • #67
  • Nov 14, 2017 7:50pm Nov 14, 2017 7:50pm
Quoting The-Flipper
FF is full of that old stupid discussion. Typical noob: the market is completely random, 100% of the time. For a pro: there is 90% randomness and 10% of big opportunities.

Could you show me the big last opportunity in the pair cable ? just give me date and time

And explain the edge and why not random in the entry for me? So I can learn.

Kind regards,

Goose
  • #68
  • Nov 14, 2017 8:15pm Nov 14, 2017 8:15pm
Every time I see a person posting in a trading forum about how the market is random, I always ask myself why would someone post it.

Are they looking to argue with someone or are they really off the trolley?
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #69
  • Nov 14, 2017 8:22pm Nov 14, 2017 8:22pm
Quoting newbegger
Every time I see a person posting in a trading forum about how the market is random, I always ask myself why would someone post it. Are they looking to argue with someone or are they really off the trolley?

How do you explain this article my friend ?

http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2...tive-sum-game/


The figures don't lie

100% failure rate

Explain ?

What the article said = The conclusion is that frequent intraday retail forex trading is a devastating negative-sum game for the totality of participants in the longer-term as soon as commission and slippage are introduced. Skill and luck play no role because making a profit is impossible in frequent trading under these conditions of trading friction.

Do you have a edge that beats this with the trading costs?
  • #70
  • Nov 14, 2017 9:01pm Nov 14, 2017 9:01pm
Fundamentals create small to big moves that are not random but based on certain economic factors. There factors can drive currency trend for hours or weeks, people who understand fundamentals don't see any of this as random. And you can make a lot more money following fundamentals then lose in the long run. jmho
  • #71
  • Nov 14, 2017 9:09pm Nov 14, 2017 9:09pm
Quoting goose4
{quote} Do you have a edge that beats this with the trading costs?
I guess they ll mention the likes of Buffet or soros or that they know somebody who know somebody else that got an edge
  • #72
  • Nov 15, 2017 7:19am Nov 15, 2017 7:19am
Quoting goose4
{quote} How do you explain this article my friend ? http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2...tive-sum-game/ The figures don't lie 100% failure rate Explain ? What the article said = The conclusion is that frequent intraday retail forex trading is a devastating negative-sum game for the totality of participants in the longer-term as soon as commission and slippage are introduced. Skill and luck play no role because making a profit is impossible in frequent trading under these conditions of...
Got it Looking for the argument

The markets can do anything but you can make money in probabilities. How else would you explain "the likes of Buffet or soros or that I know somebody who know somebody else that got an edge"
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #73
  • Nov 15, 2017 8:31am Nov 15, 2017 8:31am
Quoting metta87
{quote} I guess they ll mention the likes of Buffet or soros or that they know somebody who know somebody else that got an edge
I indirectly quoted you in my last post because I wanted to reply to the OP. I see there is a lot of controversy in the thread

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=432733

Check it out, that's your bailiwick
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #74
  • Edited 2:25pm Nov 15, 2017 1:11pm | Edited 2:25pm
This is a pointless discussion, because (1) "technical analysis" means different things to different people, and (2) everybody is limited by the boundaries of their different levels of existing knowledge -- and, dare I say it -- to some extent their ego ("if I can't make XYZ work for me, then nobody else can, either"). As my father used to say "you don't know how much you don't know".

Search the internet about whether TA can be used profitably, or not, and you'll find plenty of 'experts' in each of the two camps. Then readers tend to frame the 'evidence' selectively so that it confirms their existing bias.

Nonetheless, and as it is with many things:
 For those who have seen, no proof is necessary.
 For those who insist on remaining entrenched in their existing beliefs, no proof is possible.
  • #75
  • Nov 15, 2017 3:15pm Nov 15, 2017 3:15pm
Quoting goose4
A very interesting video. Enjoy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZdBzFcvwQY

It took 8 years for you to understand that price movement is random walk mostly?

What about volatility? Is it random? I think not. If you know in advance that there should happen volatility burst then it means a group of some traders should change their decisions. You just need, knowing pre-sentiments understand how new data affected their decisions. That's it.

Read Keynes theory it says that profit of large traders correlate, means market sometimes moves not randomly but affected by their decisions.
  • #76
  • Nov 15, 2017 3:19pm Nov 15, 2017 3:19pm
Quoting goose4
{quote} Could you show me the big last opportunity in the pair cable ? just give me date and time And explain the edge and why not random in the entry for me? So I can learn. Kind regards, Goose
So far for this week, it was definitely on Monday morning, in the beginning of the London session till the US open.
  • #77
  • Nov 15, 2017 4:54pm Nov 15, 2017 4:54pm
Quoting hanover
This is a pointless discussion, because (1) "technical analysis" means different things to different people, and (2) everybody is limited by the boundaries of their different levels of existing knowledge -- and, dare I say it -- to some extent their ego ("if I can't make XYZ work for me, then nobody else can, either"). As my father used to say "you don't know how much you don't know". Search the internet about whether TA can be used profitably, or not, and you'll find plenty of 'experts' in each of the two camps. Then readers tend to frame the 'evidence'...
I would also like to add that whether the market is random or not does not impact whether or not we can make money from it. I personally believe that the market is random on any level below W1. A simple excel program will show the randomness of up and down days. It is essentially a coin flip. The key to making money is market participation. You cannot win if you do not play.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #78
  • Edited 5:48pm Nov 15, 2017 5:34pm | Edited 5:48pm
Quoting jmn5611
.....whether the market is random or not....
Another problem with discussions like this is that the word "random" means different things to different people. FWIW here's how I understand it:

The market is "random" in the sense that it consists of a mix an anonymous participants whose agendas can't be known to the retail trader. Potentially, anything can happen at any time. No argument there.

However, when the textbooks talk about a "random walk", they are effectively asserting that the probability of price rising or falling is exactly 50/50 at all times, i.e. a perfect Gaussian distribution. If this was true, then the mathematical implication is that it would be impossible for anybody to profit systematically, i.e. ALL strategies would have a net long term expectancy of 0, making all P/L fortuitous. Then, as the 'luck' eventually balances itself out, br0ker costs would slowly bleed EVERY trader's account down to a margin call. That's why Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street caused such controversy when it was originally published: it effectively stated that it was impossible to beat the market index over the long term, no matter what analysis/strategy you used.

But we know that this isn't completely true, because factors like prevalent belief systems, macroeconomics, central bank interventions, supply/demand, trader psychology/behavior, heavyweight agendas, new information (news -- which in some situations, can take time to become 'priced in'), profit taking/corrections, etc etc all create liquidity imbalances and 'trends', and hence the probability of a rise/fall isn't necessarily 50/50 all the time. Also, some studies show that the market is a 'fat tail' distribution, creating a slight bias toward price continuation rather than reversal (hence the textbook maxim of cutting losses quickly and letting profits run). All of which makes it theoretically possible for savvy traders to exploit small biases and hence gain an 'edge', which -- if large enough to overcome br0ker costs -- means that it's possible for them to profit systematically (i.e. their winnings exceed their losses) over time.

At least that's how I understand it.
  • #79
  • Nov 15, 2017 5:44pm Nov 15, 2017 5:44pm
Quoting goose4
{quote} How do you explain this article my friend ? http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2...tive-sum-game/ The figures don't lie 100% failure rate Explain ? What the article said = The conclusion is that frequent intraday retail forex trading is a devastating negative-sum game for the totality of participants in the longer-term as soon as commission and slippage are introduced. Skill and luck play no role because making a profit is impossible in frequent trading under these conditions of...
What a noob article.. amazing !! by that way of thinking i should be broke like 2345234 times a long time ago; soo that means that I (and lots of other traders around the world) are just ______ ??

also the markets "can" look "random" because the data its shown in time intervals and no 2 consecutive time intervals (in this case 2 consecutive candles) have the same volume/move/scale or whatever you want to call it.. thats why it can "look random"..

thats the MAIN problem of traders (that and their all knowing EGO that gets in the middle)
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  • #80
  • Nov 15, 2017 6:04pm Nov 15, 2017 6:04pm
Quoting goose4
{quote} I mean look at this chart. Its a random generated charts. No pro trader would no the difference. It interesting. That's the point. Looking at this chart you could say price hit support and bounced back up. {image}
To a pro trader , that looks like a pause in the action, in a larger picture we can not see.
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
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