This thread is dedicated to technical analysis of the various Bitcoin and crypto-currency pairs. My own prefered method is Elliott Wave analysis combined with Fibonacci relationships in price action as a means of understanding past action and forecasting future price behaviour. However, analysis amd discussions in this thread are not restricted to these methods.
With the general "newness" of crypto-currencies and the amount of hype surrounding them - and Bitcoin specifically - this thread will serve both as a knowledge exchange as well as a repository for sound technical analysis of the rapidly evolving crypto-currency market.
Brief introduction to Bitcoin
Bitcoin is the most well-known of a range of crypto-currencies presently in circulation. The currency (forex code: BTC) is a digital value token that is accounted for by a decentralized peer-to-peer network comprised of it's users - both buyers and sellers. The same cryptographic algorithm that encrypts and transfers BTC around the network is also responsible for a slow release mechanism whereby a total maximum of 21mil BTC will be released in the course of a just over a century. The logic behind this gradual release strategy is to ensure scarcity in an emulation of resources such as Gold. In an extention of the simile, Bitcoins come into existence through a process called "mining".
BTC has received a lot of media attention following the crash of its speculative bubble in April 2013. Similarly, press attention has focussed on recent cases of non-compliance with US financial regulations by some Bitcoin exchanges.
BTC buying and selling is possible via several exchanges, the biggest (by daily volume) of whom is currently Mt.Gox. A few retail brokers offer BTC option contracts, but long and short CFDs are generally not available except through smaller start-up brokers.
Official website: http://bitcoin.org/en/
Bitcoin price history
Bitcoin started trading at 0.04USD in 2009 and achieved an unprecedented growth of more than 5,000% in 3 years before crashing in April 2013.
From April to June 2013, BTCUSD has consolidated around the $120.00 price level.
Personally, I use the Mt.Gox exchange and their API which gives me direct access to the largest BTCUSD market without an intervening broker. Mt.Gox charges 0.6 % on all BTC purchases (no fees for selling). Some brokers provide long/short contracts and binary options but these do not suit my current trading strategy with Bitcoin. Mt.Gox is, unfortunately, prone to price feed disruption and their order system can lag severely during market frenzies. For this reason I prefer not to participate during busy times, placing my orders and positions during quiet periods.
Surprizingly, the thread topic generates a fair amount of emotion and often leads to dicussion involving polarized opinions. To prevent wildfires and maintain a professional tone in this thread, the following ground-rules will apply to any and all members and guests posting here:
- This thread exists for co-operative technical analysis of Bitcoin and crypto-currency price charts.
- Posts should respect the thread topic and may veer from it for the sake of knowledge sharing related to the topic.
- Posted forecasts and predictions should preferaly be accompanied by a chart or other technical object illustrating your statement.
- Racist, sexist, homophobic or any other form of hate-speech will not be tolerated or condoned in this thread.
- Strong language does not serve the purposes or tone of a public forum, hence you should choose your words and bear others in mind when posting. At the discretion of the thread creator/moderator members and guests may be asked to edit their posts.
- Swearing or derogatory language directed at another poster is unacceptable and the author of such will not be protected from the Forex Factory Moderators.
- Disruptive or objectively negative posters will be blocked from posting without prior discussion.
- I, venzen, have absolute say-so, up to the last word and that is final.
Limitation of Liability
The analysis and wave counts in this thread are personal interpretations and are speculative. As per common sense, please do not construe any advice given (or implied) as a trading recommendation. The poster will not be responsible for any losses you incur as a result.