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  • #821
  • Sep 13, 2006 2:18am Sep 13, 2006 2:18am
Just closed a long GBP/USD position with a profit. I'm not too confident that it will push higher. The CPI data didn't have much of an effect on the pair, so it would be wise to wait till it breaks through the 1.8780 high.
  • #822
  • Sep 13, 2006 3:45am Sep 13, 2006 3:45am
If it breaks the 1.27 barrier and holds for an hour I predict a rally for the euro. Anyone else got thoughts on this?
  • #823
  • Sep 13, 2006 4:37pm Sep 13, 2006 4:37pm
I think it would be best to wait for the US CPI report. Just buy dips and hold till the CPI.
  • #824
  • Sep 13, 2006 5:18pm Sep 13, 2006 5:18pm
You make much more sense than me.
  • #825
  • Sep 13, 2006 8:52pm Sep 13, 2006 8:52pm
My 2 cents, if anyone cares, lol. Untill A close is done at 1.2640 I still think Bullish, and even if it Closes at 1.2640, it will Generate Sells but with the Euro/USD its hard to say if it will continue going down, so my thoughts on it, 1.2640 close Bearish, For now Bullish.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
  • #826
  • Sep 15, 2006 12:47am Sep 15, 2006 12:47am
any speculation on the morning's data? i hear that deviations of as low as 0.1% create movement. having said that, a strong/weak CPI combined with consistent data could break the pair out of its range.
  • #827
  • Sep 15, 2006 1:15am Sep 15, 2006 1:15am
Looks as though several pairs are ranging in a fairly tight range. This would suggest a breakout coming up. I have been assuming for several hours that they were waiting for the CPI numbers. I hope I am right because otherwise I will be motivated to go outside and watch grass grow just to instill some excitement into my life.
  • #828
  • Sep 15, 2006 1:27am Sep 15, 2006 1:27am
another interesting point from technical perspective... MA resistance on dailies in the mid 2700s...
  • #829
  • Sep 15, 2006 4:10am Sep 15, 2006 4:10am
Quoting moonchild
I hope I am right because otherwise I will be motivated to go outside and watch grass grow just to instill some excitement into my life.
If the American CPI is also a non event I might just join you...
  • #830
  • Sep 19, 2006 1:32am Sep 19, 2006 1:32am
looks like USD is in the 2670-2720 range we saw 2 wks ago....
  • #831
  • Sep 24, 2006 3:41am Sep 24, 2006 3:41am
Where will EUR USD go this week?
I think on Monday will start prolonged decline and we will see new lows.

Support:
1.2695
1.2605
1.2540

And what do YOU think?
  • #832
  • Sep 24, 2006 4:26am Sep 24, 2006 4:26am
For some reason I think you are right. The bounce off 1.2835 and a close below 1.2800 forming a daily pin bar last friday would indicate a drop was in the cards. But I see 1.2600 as major support though. However, we did close above the weekly trendline so not entirely sure yet.
Always wait for the opportune moment… just be careful not to miss it.
  • #833
  • Sep 24, 2006 5:35am Sep 24, 2006 5:35am
I guess EUR USD up-trend is over. All attempts to go higher than May-June double top failed. This is main strategic thing.

Tactical actions have to account this.

So, we are witnesses of outset of the large Bear campaign on EUR USD in the frames of figure head & shoulders on monthly chart.
  • #834
  • Sep 24, 2006 1:35pm Sep 24, 2006 1:35pm
Hi,

the fed desires a soft landing in the housing market and
for this goal they have to leave the interest rates unchanged.
considering this facts make me believe that the euro will go up.


cheers

Frank
  • #835
  • Sep 24, 2006 2:26pm Sep 24, 2006 2:26pm
Quoting Frank
the fed desires a soft landing in the housing market and
for this goal they have to leave the interest rates unchanged.
considering this facts make me believe that the euro will go up.
In January-February 2004 the price of EUR USD was on the same level as now: 1.2700-1.2800.

Can someone tell me, what rates were in this period in Europe and in USA?
I don't have this information, and may be there is key here: is EUR USD overvalued or otherwise now? Help me please to compare current rates and rates of beginning of 2004 when prices were the same.
  • #836
  • Sep 24, 2006 3:04pm Sep 24, 2006 3:04pm
Hmm these can quiet easily be looked up on the ECB website and the FED website. At a glance these rates were

1% FED rate
2% ECB rate.

Though i'm not sure. Im working off an old graph
  • #837
  • Sep 24, 2006 3:51pm Sep 24, 2006 3:51pm
2 Money Talks
Thank you.

So we see that in current rate conditions (comparing with I-II months of 2004) euro is overvalued and can fall much lower.
  • #838
  • Sep 24, 2006 4:03pm Sep 24, 2006 4:03pm
Just be careful my friend. Its not as simple as that. A lot of the exchange rates has to do with future expectations
  • #839
  • Sep 24, 2006 4:09pm Sep 24, 2006 4:09pm
Quoting Money Talks
Just be careful my friend. Its not as simple as that. A lot of the exchange rates has to do with future expectations
Yes,
rates is only one factor between many others as Bin Laden, oil and Katrina
  • #840
  • Sep 24, 2006 8:59pm Sep 24, 2006 8:59pm
Quoting Igor_market
I guess EUR USD up-trend is over. All attempts to go higher than May-June double top failed. This is main strategic thing.
I guess you're right Igor, since the price was around 1.2970 back in May/June 2006!

My 1 hour EUR/USD chart shows a sell signal, but it needs confirmation, such as the rsi dropping below 50. Further, price is bouncing off TL. 4H still long. So, I'm not sold on the short just yet. Maybe early this week with cable leading the way; Monday or Tuesday. Look for sell stop at 1.2779 and completion of shoulder; take profit at 1.2740. Buy the dip at 1.2730.

Just information; not a recommendation.
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