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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #36,001
  • Nov 10, 2017 6:56am Nov 10, 2017 6:56am
Quoting Catempire
Short again @ 13174 SL @13196 TP open
Opened another @ 13179 SL @ 13196 tp open
Que Sera
  • #36,002
  • Nov 10, 2017 7:02am Nov 10, 2017 7:02am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX 112 10 NOVEMBRE 2017.jpg Size: 194 KB
  • #36,003
  • Nov 10, 2017 7:03am Nov 10, 2017 7:03am
Quoting medici
{quote} Fundamentals aside, when the market has accelerated way above its channel like this, this has historically always meant increased volatility and eventually a correction. My recently developed regression model nailed the top nicely. It will be interesting to see how this will unfold. {image} {image}
Agreed, there is always a catalyst as we'll... Well done, very good call!
Que Sera
  • #36,004
  • Nov 10, 2017 7:08am Nov 10, 2017 7:08am
Quoting medici
{quote} All regression channels. Here on a DAX 5 minute chart, and on a DJI 2 hour chart with buy opportunities highlighted. {image} {image} {image}
Awesome! Thanks for sharing this.

Without knowing the exact method - just extrapolating, it's similar to what I do on Bollinger Bands.

On the 5MIN Dax chart, the top was confirmed when:
a) price above green and white regressions
b) green in lower red channel
c) while green in lower red, shorts
d) Mid of White can function as intraday bias barometer

So still looks like shorts, but the drop yesterday going outside of White Regression, suggested a strong pullback.
Interestingly, price returned to Mid Green and is now contained in Green levels.

Am I reasonably close?
Thanks again
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #36,005
  • Nov 10, 2017 7:09am Nov 10, 2017 7:09am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} Agreed, there is always a catalyst as we'll... Well done, very good call!
Thank you

It is remarkable how well these models work, also for target setting. Here's Black Monday 1987 and the DAX drop this week.

Also, I am indebted to parisboy for inspiration. Merci mille fois!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #36,006
  • Nov 10, 2017 7:13am Nov 10, 2017 7:13am
Quoting littspaniard
{quote} closed two and move stop at even 2*19=38points set profit 13130 {image}
stop loss at even for three positions remained opened
The only constant is change
  • #36,007
  • Nov 10, 2017 7:23am Nov 10, 2017 7:23am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Awesome! Thanks for sharing this. Without knowing the exact method - just extrapolating, it's similar to what I do on Bollinger Bands. On the 5MIN Dax chart, the top was confirmed when: a) price above green and white regressions b) green in lower red channel c) while green in lower red, shorts d) Mid of White can function as intraday bias barometer So still looks like shorts, but the drop yesterday going outside of White Regression, suggested a strong pullback. Interestingly, price returned to Mid Green and is now contained in Green levels....
Yes, except regression is less of a lagging indicator than moving averages.

For example, it tends to stay in the middle of price action rather than lie under it in an uptrend. A lot of the time you get signals from LRs before the MAs have responded. Differently put, the LRs always turn first.

In practice, I like using both views, as they complement each other.
  • #36,008
  • Nov 10, 2017 7:36am Nov 10, 2017 7:36am
longs
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The only constant is change
  • #36,009
  • Nov 10, 2017 7:37am Nov 10, 2017 7:37am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} Opened another @ 13179 SL @ 13196 tp open
Closed manually -15
Que Sera
  • #36,010
  • Nov 10, 2017 7:38am Nov 10, 2017 7:38am
Quoting littspaniard
longs {image}
agreed. closed shorts for small loss. opened longs same price

Edit:
The price is very uncertain. I have no news feed to really tell.
Last hours have hovered around today's open, but Daily Pivot is a beckoning.
Rejection of the low and reversal at 13160 was the key to closing my shorts
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #36,011
  • Nov 10, 2017 7:42am Nov 10, 2017 7:42am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} agreed. closed shorts for small loss. opened longs same price Edit: The price is very uncertain. I have no news feed to really tell. Last hours have hovered around today's open, but Daily Pivot is a beckoning. Rejection of the low and reversal at 13160 was the key to closing my shorts
Not a day for trading, really. Yesterday's drop takes some time to digest.
  • #36,012
  • Nov 10, 2017 7:42am Nov 10, 2017 7:42am
Looks like a weak retrace. If we get some momentum, it could reject around 13282 or 13312; but I think it may struggle to get this high today.

Not sure we can break new lows either; depends if they dump in the US, but it seems a bit manipulated over there, most dips are bought slowly.
  • #36,013
  • Nov 10, 2017 7:43am Nov 10, 2017 7:43am
Quoting medici
{quote} Thank you It is remarkable how well these models work, also for target setting. Here's Black Monday 1987 and the DAX drop this week. Also, I am indebted to parisboy for inspiration. Merci mille fois! {image} {image}
Medici You are welcome !
  • #36,014
  • Nov 10, 2017 7:45am Nov 10, 2017 7:45am
Quoting medici
{quote} Not a day for trading, really. Yesterday's drop takes some time to digest.
I'm beginning to agree with you!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #36,015
  • Nov 10, 2017 7:47am Nov 10, 2017 7:47am
Short again at 13184.4 SL 13204

TP open depending if it can break circa 13160.

Not 100% sure of direction yet!
Que Sera
  • #36,016
  • Nov 10, 2017 7:55am Nov 10, 2017 7:55am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} I'm beginning to agree with you!
Yes .. The bulls have been so strong for so long, the bears are struggling to keep up the momentum.

The DOW hasn't had much of a pullback considering so I still think there is room for both to drop further before a proper retrace.

We'll see.
Que Sera
  • #36,017
  • Nov 10, 2017 8:00am Nov 10, 2017 8:00am
Quoting Catempire
Short again at 13184.4 SL 13204 TP open depending if it can break circa 13160. Not 100% sure of direction yet!
SL break evens. TP 13150.

Off out. Best of luck guys!
Que Sera
  • #36,018
  • Nov 10, 2017 8:06am Nov 10, 2017 8:06am
Quoting littspaniard
longs {image}
stop loss hit 5*-10 = -50

longs again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The only constant is change
  • #36,019
  • Nov 10, 2017 8:07am Nov 10, 2017 8:07am
Quoting PariCovek
Looks like a weak retrace. If we get some momentum, it could reject around 13282 or 13312; but I think it may struggle to get this high today. Not sure we can break new lows either; depends if they dump in the US, but it seems a bit manipulated over there, most dips are bought slowly.
Same with the Dow, the key levels I would look for possible rejection to downside is 23446, 23456, 23472, or 23488-90, or BRN 23500. If we can close with 1H candle above those, then back to new High's, otherwise the drop is not over.
  • #36,020
  • Nov 10, 2017 8:12am Nov 10, 2017 8:12am
Quoting littspaniard
{quote} stop loss hit 5*-10 = -50 longs again {image}
stop loss hit 5*-4=-20

shorts open
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The only constant is change
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