Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

I have done my calculation a bit more systematically now. You're correct, I get a resistance at 25000 (and Gann's theory appears to hold well).
Those resistances however may very well end up broken (like the one at 21100): in other words this is the market I wouldn't dare to short.

Cheers,
k

Check with the Nikkei - 37.500 ( 3 x 12,500) - the Third Octave was a strong Resistance

as nothing is perfect , NIKKEI made its All Time High several hundreds points above 37.500 - that is the reality check that Gann called " the lost motion" where Price living on fumes and enthusiasm goes a little higher (or lower) than in strict accordance with the Theory

Then here we assume that NIKKEI fluctuates between 0 and 40.000

Then operative Octave is 40.000 / 8 = 5.000 that we used to build the 6 Year Envelope (1536 Trading Days)

an analysis of the SP 500 published on another site as a complementary answer to a Hurst analyst

If we use Envelopes we can get additional informations :

let’s assume that the previous Low of concern was on August 21 th
let’s assume that the last Low of the 80 D cycle was on October 25 th

Time factor is 66 Calendar Days

we see that :

– Price fluctuates since August 21 th within the Envelope 32 (blue) whose amplitude is 2 x 15,625 = 31,25 points = Centered Moving Average 32 +/- 15,625

– all this time Price was above the 28° Trend Line (in green) that we can describe as an Ascending Valid Trend Line (VTL) linking Lows made by Price touching or crossing slightly the lower limit of the Envelope 32 (in blue)

– the upper limits of the 3 Envelopes : 32 (blue), 128 (ocre), 256 (brown) have merged which is an indication that the Uptrend is strong

– the 3 Envelopes are trending UP

– the Measured Move between August 21 Th (2420) and October 25 th (2543) = 123 points (2543-2420)
that is the Underlying Trend of the Envelope 32 (blue) sum of all cycles whose duration is more than 32 time unit

Strength of the Underlying Trend was 123 points / 66 Calendar Days ,:

– slightly less than 2 points a day,
– 4 times more than the amplitude of the Envelope 32 Time Unit

Brian Millard and Channel Analysis

DOW parabolic Price

After a GAP UP of 37 points at the Open, DOUBLING of the Envelopes parameters

Thanks again for bringing this topic up. I've done some analysis and reflection, and here's a couple of interesting charts.

The first is of the Black Monday 1987, and the second of the current situation in the British Pound after the rate hike. 1.2840 next!?

You can observe :

a) some lateralization

b) a diminution of 50 % of the Volatility - after having evolved within the Envelope 256 Time Unit (brown), since October 6 th Price fluctuates within the Envelope 128 Time Unit

3 Possible successive Support :

- the Lower Limit of the Envelope 128 TU (ocre)
- The Ascending Valid Trend Line (VTL) 13° (green)
- the Lower Limit of the Envelope 256 TU (brown)

Here's 1994, the year I started trading stocks, on its own and in context of the previous years.

It is from this year that my bearish bias, tendency to cut winners short, and generally impatient outlook, stem from

Makes sense. 1.30 as the first test.