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Trading Made Simple

  • #83,081
  • Nov 3, 2017 12:58pm Nov 3, 2017 12:58pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Trade Report Week 44 Oct 30 to Nov 03: Not many pairs traded this week as I will go on my year-end vacation next week. {image} Note, Nett pips is negative but Nett P&L $$$ is positive. That's the Power of using Position Sizing with TMS ME/ME. I know member okoso will ask me again on this....
That makes me think.
As the MEME is explained, a basket of trades is assumed to result in a loss only after the stop loss is hit and only after all five positions of the basket are opened.
The report shows, in the case of EURNZD, that in 14 positions there was a profit:loss ratio of 3: 1. Assuming that in the best case a single basket of trades hit the stop loss, this would mean that 9 positions alone generated a profit 3 times more than the losses, and I do not think this is possible considering also that every take profit is much smaller than a whole loss.
All this leads me to think that not all positions in a basket of trades hit the stop loss, but some of them are closed at the level of the average entry price and one or two left open.
  • #83,082
  • Nov 3, 2017 1:16pm Nov 3, 2017 1:16pm
Quoting nikl0718
{quote} Is that a recognized approached? what i mean is, can it be relied upon as a strategy, to avoid stop placement during nfp? once the market doesn't come back, yo account also doesn't come back.... ?! ;D
It's an approach I adopt when certain news/events are to be announced..some might use a big stop. I do that at weekend closing as well..pairs like g/nzd or e/nzd can have spreads of over 60 pips and you are knocked out before you can resume with your trades come Sunday opening..the important thing here is knowing what to do if the trade doesn't work out..if you are walking with the bigger trend you will be alright..so trading nfp is no big deal..it's those tweets and out of the blue chit chat that can screw you up..just my 2 cents
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #83,083
  • Nov 3, 2017 1:25pm Nov 3, 2017 1:25pm
Quoting Giannis95
{quote} That makes me think. As the MEME is explained, a basket of trades is assumed to result in a loss only after the stop loss is hit and only after all five positions of the basket are opened. The report shows, in the case of EURNZD, that in 14 positions there was a profit:loss ratio of 3: 1. Assuming that in the best case a single basket of trades hit the stop loss, this would mean that 9 positions alone generated a profit 3 times more than the losses, and I do not think this is possible considering also that every take profit is much smaller...
It is possible if you double/triple your lot size, such as first position 1 lot, second position 2 lots, third position 4 lots, but it is not easy to do when the market against you.
  • #83,084
  • Nov 3, 2017 1:28pm Nov 3, 2017 1:28pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} .........I will go on my year-end vacation next week. ...
Hi Emm.
I wish you a wonderful vacation.
Enjoy all the benefits of successful work in your holiday.

Guido
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
  • #83,085
  • Nov 3, 2017 1:34pm Nov 3, 2017 1:34pm
Quoting kenchk
{quote} It is possible if you double/triple your lot size, such as first position 1 lot, second position 2 lots, third position 4 lots, but it is not easy to do when the market against you.
In this way the losses will also be greater.
  • #83,086
  • Nov 3, 2017 1:44pm Nov 3, 2017 1:44pm
Quoting pips29
on the 4 hour price was rejected at previous swing low several times and also a pivot..when the apb candle turned red I went to the 1 hour and take a look ..saw what i like and so took the trade...btw the daily is in a downtrend with LH/LL...as the nfp was about to be announced I removed my stop to avoid those stops hunting swings..I just stuck with the daily and h4 trend and took all my profits thinking I might close shop early {image} {image}


I took eur/jpy last night in asian session m30 based on the h4 [took it off rejection of daily pivot]...price danced around alot ....and with 2 hours till nfp i decided that if i went positive again i would just take it off at break even. I went positive and took it off...

it turns out my trade would have won but i did not want to take it through nfp due to huge spikes you sometimes see.

i had a 14 pip sl and tp, and a couple of years ago in demo i forgot to check news and got hit by a nfp spike. slippage was 17 pips, i did not want to risk that happening again so closed the trade for b/e

i'm wondering next time if i should trade the night before nfp, price behaved more erratically than normal and came closer to my sl than usual. imo traders were waiting for nfp to be over out of fear and so not placing orders how they usually place them and this was causing price to range all over the place..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #83,087
  • Nov 3, 2017 1:45pm Nov 3, 2017 1:45pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} AUDCAD Nov 01 update: Price moved up nicely but rather slow in range trading. Patience, it will clear that 'minefield' which I mentioned. {image} {image} WCC, WRB, are all important when we trade Price Action and Support/Resistance. They help us identify the market conditions in which we trade. The market conditions is what TMS MEME traders use to identify the three Market Types and to trade only two of the three Market Types.

I was watching the whole week to see if price will meet its 200EMA and that High of that WRB. It struggled for days to move up and I wondered why.

And now when I changed my chart to show as Line chart, I see something interesting.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD Week 44 NFP day.png Size: 69 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD Week44 CS chart.png Size: 62 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,088
  • Nov 3, 2017 1:56pm Nov 3, 2017 1:56pm
Quoting Sesamstrasse
{quote} Hi Emm. I wish you a wonderful vacation. Enjoy all the benefits of successful work in your holiday. Guido

Thanks Guido.

It's going to be lots of fun 8 weeks year end break.

Will login occasionally when I find time to read this forum and when I see interesting trade ideas I will post.

Anyway, the week 51 starting Dec 18 until Jan 05 next year won't be nice to trade with the festive holidays.

Trade well.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,089
  • Nov 3, 2017 2:04pm Nov 3, 2017 2:04pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} I was watching the whole week to see if price will meet its 200EMA and that High of that WRB. It struggled for days to move up and I wondered why. And now when I changed my chart to show as Line chart, I see something interesting. {image} {image}
yes, I saw that but as I was in ncad, I decided not to take it..those wicks do tell a tale looking at ppa....anyway, enjoy your holidays..
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #83,090
  • Nov 3, 2017 2:09pm Nov 3, 2017 2:09pm
Quoting kain775
{quote} I took eur/jpy last night in asian session m30 based on the h4 [took it off rejection of daily pivot]...price danced around alot ....and with 2 hours till nfp i decided that if i went positive again i would just take it off at break even. I went positive and took it off... it turns out my trade would have won but i did not want to take it through nfp due to huge spikes you sometimes see. i had a 14 pip sl and tp, and a couple of years ago in demo i forgot to check news and got hit by a nfp spike. slippage was 17 pips, i did not want to risk...
as long as you are walking with the big boys facing the same direction you will be alright..the reason I took e/u instead of e/y was because on the 4 hour price was getting close to the 200 ema...when it's too close I prefer to avoid taking an entry..price is now there and let's see if we get a close below this ema
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYH4.png Size: 67 KB
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #83,091
  • Nov 3, 2017 2:21pm Nov 3, 2017 2:21pm
EURUSD November trading

Today NFP did not spike high enough.
We should be seeing EU trading into two possible zones -

the high may test 1.1750
and
the low region is 1.1555

we shall see what happens in the next 20 days / 4 weeks.

I favour selling with TMS ME/ME and holding 2 open positions.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Week 44 Zones.png Size: 45 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,092
  • Nov 3, 2017 2:37pm Nov 3, 2017 2:37pm
Quoting Giannis95
{quote} That makes me think. As the MEME is explained, a basket of trades is assumed to result in a loss only after the stop loss is hit and only after all five positions of the basket are opened. The report shows, in the case of EURNZD, that in 14 positions there was a profit:loss ratio of 3: 1. Assuming that in the best case a single basket of trades hit the stop loss, this would mean that 9 positions alone generated a profit 3 times more than the losses, and I do not think this is possible considering also that every take profit is much smaller...

We need to start THINK OUT OF THE BOX.

I know many people are attracted to systems that promises thousands of pips shown using some pipsometer indicator. This is a major distraction to the long period of trading account in floating drawdown hidden using M15 and M30 charts posted.

I don't look at pips won or loss.
I look at the money dollars.
I manage my account Equity and the Margin Level.

A trader once said: "To make a million, start with two"
Simply put, you need to put money in the market and generate cash flow with that money.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,093
  • Nov 3, 2017 2:46pm Nov 3, 2017 2:46pm
Here is the MT4 statement for that account for the 3 months August 01 to November 03.
This statement shows everything, the money, the drawdowns, the win rate, etc.

What MT4 accounting lack is the statistics showing trade baskets, magic number, etc. It shows individual trade closed.

The group with FXBlue account has access to the trade details.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TMS MEME summary Aug 01 to Nov 03.png Size: 49 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,094
  • Nov 3, 2017 2:50pm Nov 3, 2017 2:50pm
Quoting pips29
{quote} as long as you are walking with the big boys facing the same direction you will be alright..the reason I took e/u instead of e/y was because on the 4 hour price was getting close to the 200 ema...when it's too close I prefer to avoid taking an entry..price is now there and let's see if we get a close below this ema {image}

I've started ignoring the 200ema,

since i've started trading differently i've been paying attention to it, and whilst it is not rare for price to find support or resistance there, I can not think of 1 occasion where a valid setup was present ..and price reversed off the 200ema and sent price to the stop loss. I am noticing deep pullbacks off the 200ema sometimes when there is a valid setup, but price always seem to recover .........so i just trade through it, and if i see the 200ema in the way it won't stop me taking the trade, i'll just be prepared for a pullback

all these brn's, dol, pivots,ema's ...etc etc are what i've started calling phantom support and resistance

they are not actually there, but they are

if you have strong price action behind your reason for getting into the trade, these phantom roadblocks will not cause the trade to loose. Price may stall or reverse a bit from there, but if you have an appropriate stop you will be alright i find

these phantom roadblocks i find are useful for getting you into a trade, but only IF the right price action is behind it, eg, price action is clearly bearish and you take a a short trade when price pulls back into a pivot.

even trading out of hours [a big no no for a lot of people] i am finding the trade still wins, but only if you have real price action behind getting into it. the trade will still tend to win, but take much longer generally to reach the tp if not taken in london session.

having said all this i think these phantom resistances will possibly effect some traders due to their trading style. I definitely had them spoil my trades in the past under differant styles, ..and whilst i pay little to no attention to master candles/wrb's now, whilst trading how emmanuel trades the lower timeframes i found if i tried to ignore them usually the market would punish me for it, and after keep getting punished .. i was forced to respect these structures whilst trading how emmanuel trades... ,

so yeah, 200 ema etc, how much you need to take note of it depends on trading style imo
  • #83,095
  • Nov 3, 2017 2:53pm Nov 3, 2017 2:53pm
Until Thursday, all my trades were losers. today, only NZDCHF is a loser. Anyway, I wanted to test this strategy with positions going against me, and I must say, that it looks like a very robust strategy. I'm very happy with it. Thank you very much, Emmanuel for sharing your MEME strategy with all of us
Here is my trade report. Week 44 Oct 30 to Nov 03:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: open and closed trades.png Size: 82 KB
  • #83,096
  • Nov 3, 2017 5:04pm Nov 3, 2017 5:04pm
Two years has been passed and i am still try to beat the forex. Don't know why i am fail????? I need help
  • #83,097
  • Nov 3, 2017 7:04pm Nov 3, 2017 7:04pm
October was my biggest losing month in years. Why? Just one reason: complete lack of discipline. We all have the answers, yet some of us refuse to use them and look for the improbable rather than the probable which, sometimes, is uglier than our fantasies (e.g. Too late to enter a trade, drawdown already too painful etc...).

The market is the market, applying one's fantasies on it doesn't change it. Winning by luck is even worse as it gives a false sense of skill.

I am still struggling with some concepts such as WCC which I see everywhere now, but I will study more and crack it. I must become the trader I need to be, not the trader I want to be.

For those, like me, who had a bad week, month or year: I feel your pain, but it's pain you have inflicted upon yourself, as I did to me. You may find some help to accelerate your journey as a trader here but the real solution is in you. Stop looking elsewhere than in yourself, identify what causes your failure and kill that self-sabotaging bug either consciously or by coding your EA.
  • #83,098
  • Nov 3, 2017 7:53pm Nov 3, 2017 7:53pm
Quoting darko2010
October was my biggest losing month in years. Why? Just one reason: complete lack of discipline. We all have the answers, yet some of us refuse to use them and look for the improbable rather than the probable which, sometimes, is uglier than our fantasies (e.g. Too late to enter a trade, drawdown already too painful etc...). The market is the market, applying one's fantasies on it doesn't change it. Winning by luck is even worse as it gives a false sense of skill. I am still struggling with some concepts such as WCC which I see everywhere now, but...
Good post by darko2010.

I know many people have been struggling for years trying to trade and become traders.
Do not worry to much about WCC. It is just a weekly price pattern but a very important one to help us determine the market condition.

What are good and bad market?

Super Traders make consistent profits in both good and bad markets?

It says on this book cover below.

Attached Image


Market liquidity has nothing to do with when you have a losing month or two losing months. When you have 1 to 2 consecutive months it has to do with you the trader and not the market liquidity. The common reason for most failures is when traders do not want to "cut losses short" when the market condition changed they failed to recognize the change. They forgot that trading is a probability game which Mark Douglas talked about his 2 books.

It takes years to develop and become Super Traders. Some will make it, while many other won't make it. This is the hard truth.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,099
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:04pm Nov 3, 2017 8:04pm
Quoting Jordi
{quote} Hi, Emmanuel. Are you going to post, your next post about lotto/insurance models, before your holidays? I'm very interested with that.

I did post the last 20-trading days here:

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...5#post10439415

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TMS HA entry Oct 2-27.png Size: 71 KB


I will keep this EA running in my VPS and will be post the results at the end of Nov again.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #83,100
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:19pm Nov 3, 2017 8:19pm
One of Mark Douglas well known quotes:

Putting on a winning trade or even a series of winning trades requires absolutely no skill.
On the other hand, creating consistent results and being able to keep what we’ve created does require skill.
Making money consistently is a by-product of acquiring and mastering mental skills.
– Mark Douglas
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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