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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #71,121
  • Nov 3, 2017 9:19am Nov 3, 2017 9:19am
Quoting nealpek
The first big red bar happened in less than half a second...The other six minutes down there gave you time to trade it....with no guessing!!
Depends on the broker I guess. 5 second chart showing around 10 seconds on bottom. Don't believe that I got a 20 tick chart of individual trades showing the same.
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  • #71,122
  • Nov 3, 2017 9:24am Nov 3, 2017 9:24am
It stayed for maybe ten seconds on the bottom, but the entire red candle from the top of it to the bottom of it got there in a fraction of a second!!
  • #71,123
  • Nov 3, 2017 9:28am Nov 3, 2017 9:28am
Quoting nealpek
It stayed for maybe ten seconds on the bottom, but the entire red candle from the top of it to the bottom of it got there in a fraction of a second!!
slow consolidation with a lofty flight is the best definition ive ever herd for this pair. that the lofty flight part.
  • #71,124
  • Nov 3, 2017 10:00am Nov 3, 2017 10:00am
Im itching to get into a long position here but i guess this week was too exhausting. Holding my longs in gbpjpy and not enough guts to manage this too
  • #71,125
  • Nov 3, 2017 10:03am Nov 3, 2017 10:03am
Can't enter after the move, too dangerous. There are a pile of buy stops at 114.50, so this would probably be where they will sell off a good portion of the profit from below, if it can get there, and that's my target, and it's friday afternoon....
  • #71,126
  • Nov 3, 2017 10:06am Nov 3, 2017 10:06am
hopefully it can reach the mid line
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  • #71,127
  • Nov 3, 2017 10:09am Nov 3, 2017 10:09am
Quoting NagaMas
EU {image} stopped, but re-entry.. {image}
my EU demo is running well
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  • #71,128
  • Nov 3, 2017 10:09am Nov 3, 2017 10:09am
Here we go! Friday afternoon break of big time resistance?
instagram: stepbystepforex
  • #71,129
  • Nov 3, 2017 10:12am Nov 3, 2017 10:12am
If the breakout holds, it will be a bull play next week...
  • #71,130
  • Nov 3, 2017 10:13am Nov 3, 2017 10:13am
Big 115 bank level above, could be!!
  • #71,131
  • Nov 3, 2017 10:23am Nov 3, 2017 10:23am
Quoting NagaMas
hopefully it can reach the mid line {image}
targeting 114.700
  • #71,132
  • Nov 3, 2017 10:25am Nov 3, 2017 10:25am
Quoting nealpek
It stayed for maybe ten seconds on the bottom, but the entire red candle from the top of it to the bottom of it got there in a fraction of a second!!
So what are you saying that of course no one could react to the drop - if they didn't already. I think we all agree to that. But what was stopping someone going short seconds or minutes before the break. And then what was stopping someone from going long seconds or minutes after the bottom was made. Naturally you have to guess right in either case. But traders being wrong has nothing to do with what "they" did.
  • #71,133
  • Edited 10:58am Nov 3, 2017 10:42am | Edited 10:58am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} So what are you saying that of course no one could react to the drop - if they didn't already. I think we all agree to that. But what was stopping someone going short seconds or minutes before the break. And then what was stopping someone from going long seconds or minutes after the bottom was made. Naturally you have to guess right in either case. But traders being wrong has nothing to do with what "they" did.
Suntrader,Here is what I am saying: The drop itself occurred so quickly, that I couldn't trade this news event down because I had no time to react to the initial move.In my opinion, the split second strike down(that it would even happen)could at best be only a guess before the fact. I have no idea a split second before the announcement which way it will go. It could have spiked up just as well. My point is when I trade and place my hard earned money into the markets, as much as humanly possible, I don't want my fate to be decided by some random guess, or some irrelevant belief on which way it might go. Once the news was announced, I saw the reaction which was sharp, and THEN traded after the initial act had occurred. If you are only interested in trying to profit from guessing that it might spike down, you are free to do so. I was looking at the market structure surrounding the release, and what it told me was that there was a good probability that this news would be used to trap traders, and swing abruptly the other way. That was my thought before the announcement. Once it nose dived away from the 114 handle very quickly, I was waiting to buy in anticipation of this fact. Markets can and will do anything at anytime. As much as possible, I do my best to not trade based on guessing or prayers, but to trade based on what is real and in front of my eyes.
  • #71,134
  • Nov 3, 2017 11:00am Nov 3, 2017 11:00am
That spike down
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  • #71,135
  • Nov 3, 2017 11:02am Nov 3, 2017 11:02am
Quoting nealpek
{quote} Suntrader,Here is what I am saying: The drop itself occurred so quickly, that I couldn't trade this news event down because I had no time to react to the initial move.In my opinion, the split second strike down(that it would even happen)could at best be only a guess before the fact. I have no idea a split second before the announcement which way it will go. It could have spiked up just as well. My point is when I trade and place my hard earned money into the markets, as much as humanly possible, I don't want my fate to be decided by some...
What happened today happens every NFP Friday. Price trends up / down or range bound into the announcement. Then the reaction and counter reaction. "They" do it all the time. Also every trade split-second or not is a guess at best.
  • #71,136
  • Nov 3, 2017 11:02am Nov 3, 2017 11:02am
Quoting FKhan
Im itching to get into a long position here but i guess this week was too exhausting. Holding my longs in gbpjpy and not enough guts to manage this too
I wouldn't, unless with your trading style you're comfortable chasing a possibility of a trend. She now knows the skilled traders have already seen her hand and took her money. From now she'll be covering her cards until more structures are formed. It's not possible to be certain of a strong push at this point anymore IMO and it's too risky for me personally. If you do take a long, let me know what area you're targeting.
Here's Tom with the weather.
  • #71,137
  • Nov 3, 2017 11:07am Nov 3, 2017 11:07am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} What happened today happens every NFP Friday. Price trends up / down or range bound into the announcement. Then the reaction and counter reaction. "They" do it all the time. Also every trade split-second or not is a guess at best.
lol, that's exactly my point. Not every trade is a guess! It's based on probabilities!! Trading the news event is low prob, while trading the reaction after the fact is high prob. Which do you prefer? Why trade the guess from the intital move when you could trade the reaction with a much higher probability based on the surrounding market structure. In this case trading the higher probability move after the news yielded a higher return and more pips. Why would you want to risk more to make less?
  • #71,138
  • Nov 3, 2017 11:10am Nov 3, 2017 11:10am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} What happened today happens every NFP Friday. Price trends up / down or range bound into the announcement. Then the reaction and counter reaction. "They" do it all the time. Also every trade split-second or not is a guess at best.
I haven't researched news announcements to figure out if they can be predicted but intuitively I agree with you. During the news and shortly before and after, it is probably too random-ish and probably can't be tamed into giving a directional bias. Who knows, maybe someone has done it and they're just not saying.
Here's Tom with the weather.
  • #71,139
  • Nov 3, 2017 11:54am Nov 3, 2017 11:54am
Well that's all for this week folks! The all important 115 Bank level above will be in my plans for next week. Nice weekend everyone!!
  • #71,140
  • Nov 3, 2017 12:00pm Nov 3, 2017 12:00pm
USD/JPY could not top 115 but it might do so next week.
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