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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #71,101
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:01am Nov 3, 2017 8:01am
Quoting zhafryy
My 2cents {image}
My target is lower than yours..
  • #71,102
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:04am Nov 3, 2017 8:04am
Believe that at your own trading peril.

It is clear to me anyway many bought the rumor of higher NFP. Then sold when it didn't come to pass.

Which now after the release looks like an over reaction.
  • #71,103
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:07am Nov 3, 2017 8:07am
If price breaks 114.14 and 114.30, I'll admit I'm wrong and get out.
  • #71,104
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:07am Nov 3, 2017 8:07am
Quoting SunTrader
Believe that at your own trading peril. It is clear to me anyway many bought the rumor of higher NFP. Then sold when it didn't come to pass. Which now after the release looks like an over reaction.
Attached Image
  • #71,105
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:08am Nov 3, 2017 8:08am
The sharpness and speed of the spike isn't tradeable by humans. It all happened in a microsecond, no time to react. So something else is in play...
Just my "belief",lol
  • #71,106
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:11am Nov 3, 2017 8:11am
Quoting nealpek
The sharpness and speed of the spike isn't tradeable by humans. It all happened in a microsecond, no time to react. So something else is in play... Just my "belief",lol
Definitely tradable with pre-placed bracketed sell-stops/buy-stops. Just saying
  • #71,107
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:12am Nov 3, 2017 8:12am
Bottom of consolidation at 114.04 looks to be becoming resistance.
  • #71,108
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:13am Nov 3, 2017 8:13am
Quoting nealpek
The sharpness and speed of the spike isn't tradeable by humans. It all happened in a microsecond, no time to react. So something else is in play... Just my "belief",lol
maybe you are right that big guys' traders mostly are machine.
  • #71,109
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:14am Nov 3, 2017 8:14am
Tradeable with predefined orders. Who knows where it's going to go, it's all a guess! See the reaction first...then trade it!! Hard to trade an unknown.
Trade what you SEE, not what you BELIEVE!
  • #71,110
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:16am Nov 3, 2017 8:16am
Quoting nealpek
Tradeable with predefined orders. Who knows where it's going to go, it's all a guess! See the reaction first...then trade it!! Hard to trade an unknown. Trade what you SEE, not what you BELIEVE!
If you know there is a liquidity event coming (i.e news such as jobs, fomc, etc) its pretty easy to bracket a consolidation with predefined risk:reward and set buy-stop/sell-stops with atleast a 2:1 or greater profit target. Hence jobs report nets an easy short (in this case) or long if you were prepared.
  • #71,111
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:19am Nov 3, 2017 8:19am
Quoting nealpek
The sharpness and speed of the spike isn't tradeable by humans. It all happened in a microsecond, no time to react. So something else is in play... Just my "belief",lol
The bottom zone was 7 minute bars long:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #71,112
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:21am Nov 3, 2017 8:21am
The first big red bar happened in less than half a second...The other six minutes down there gave you time to trade it....with no guessing!!
  • #71,113
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:23am Nov 3, 2017 8:23am
Quoting nealpek
The sharpness and speed of the spike isn't tradeable by humans. It all happened in a microsecond, no time to react. So something else is in play... Just my "belief",lol
This is correct and it's not even tradable by an EA on a collocated VPS, there's simply no liquidity for the retail trader. Here is a few second capture of today's event.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ 11.3.2017.png Size: 88 KB
  • #71,114
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:32am Nov 3, 2017 8:32am
I don't trade the news, I can only anticipate a reaction to the news, knowing that most traders are usually wrong and on the wrong side of the advertisement and enticement sent out by the big boys. I still can't say for sure which way it will go, that would be a belief, and what I believe isn't important. I must take an objective view with no bias and trade price based on what is happening in front of my eyes. Even with a bloomberg terminal, I couldn't react and make a rational decision in 94ms!!

NOTE: I am not a professional trader, so please take everything I say or post with a grain of salt,lol! I wish only good things for all the traders on these boards!!
  • #71,115
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:36am Nov 3, 2017 8:36am
Good day traders, last nights call worked out. there is a lot of volatility built up the pair. i would suggest using your pending orders and limits until after the big push down. which we could see before the close.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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plan your trades trade your plan.
  • #71,116
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:37am Nov 3, 2017 8:37am
Quoting nealpek
I don't trade the news, I can only anticipate a reaction to the news, knowing that most traders are usually wrong and on the wrong side of the advertisement and enticement sent out by the big boys. I still can't say for sure which way it will go, that would be a belief, and what I believe isn't important. I must take an objective view with no bias and trade price based on what is happening in front of my eyes. Even with a bloomberg terminal, I couldn't react and make a rational decision in 94ms!!
Well considering the fastest human reaction time is around 200ms... no, definitely not. And straddling stop-orders on a MT broker server is a suicide mission.
  • #71,117
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:46am Nov 3, 2017 8:46am
I didn't trade the NFP news and it was a good decision because I generally dislike trading whipsaws. I'll wait and see when or whether it will break out above 114.45 before I open a long position.
  • #71,118
  • Nov 3, 2017 8:54am Nov 3, 2017 8:54am
Quoting dianajs
I didn't trade the NFP news and it was a good decision because I generally dislike trading whipsaws. I'll wait and see when or whether it will break out above 114.45 before I open a long position.
Just take a look at your chart, and think of all the pain and money that was snatched away from traders thinking they were in a winning long position before the news because of wrong stop placement if you were still in. As well as the traders who shorted at the low end of the big red candle on everyone's screens. Tons of money lost based on a belief....that's now in the accounts of other people!! Next bullshit useless piece of news designed to hurt traders, the big ISM reveal! Wow, can't wait...
  • #71,119
  • Nov 3, 2017 9:11am Nov 3, 2017 9:11am
for every action there is an equal to and opposite reaction, this one is more than equil
  • #71,120
  • Nov 3, 2017 9:15am Nov 3, 2017 9:15am
Quoting PayTheLimit
If I had to guess a good support today, I guess 113.37.... {image}
I like the idea perhaps, for next week..have a good weekend all....
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