I'm starting this Thread to do Analysis on the GBP/USD Currency pair and to record my trades. I Plan to update this analysis regularly, my hope is that others will benefit from this analysis and that i can help and mentor any struggling traders.
My Analysis will include the following aspects.
Trend and Sentiment - Current Price Action in relation to the 50 Moving Average, Commitment of Traders.
Fundamentals - What's Driving the Pound right now?
Momentum - MACD, Stochastic, 10 MA.
Pattern - Elliott Wave in accordance with common patterns such as double tops/bottoms, Triangles, Head and Shoulders, Wedges ETC.
Candlesticks - Common Patterns
Support and Resistance -
Catalysts - Economic Calendar, Session Open, Political Events, Global Events.
Correlation - What are the other GBP Pairs doing?
Trades - Post Setups and results.
TREND AND SENTIMENT
Trend - Monthly Bearish, Weekly Bullish, Daily Neutral/Bullish, Hourly Bearish.
Sentiment - Neutral, Large Speculators and Commercials are essentially flat, Retail Traders slightly long.
FUNDAMENTALS
I believe both of these pairs are currently bullish Sentimentally atleast. The US Data has been good and progress seems to be being made on Tax reform, The Data for the Pound has been mixed however the market seems to be expecting a rate Hike from BOE on Thursday, as long as this expectation remains the Pound is likely to remain well supported. Fundamentally this is not a good pair to be trading until a divergence in sentiment and data emerges. Worth paying attention to this pair on Thursday as a disapointment on Thursday by the BOE could give us a good opportunity to sell Cable.
MOMENTUM
The settings I'm using for Stochastic and MACD are probably foreign to most of you. I learnt how to use these indicators from Barry Burns at "Top Dog Trading" and have never found a sound reason to change.
Mixed Signal Momentum Signature here, Price being below the upward sloping 50 MA, a bullish setup known as "The rubber Band Trade". First oversold on Stochastic after the Slower moving momentum indicator (The Purple line) is a bearish setup.
PATTERN
On the Daily Chart Ideally the Correction of the last 12 Months is now over and have sights lower for an intermediate wave 5.
Maintaining a low conviction bullish count above key level 1.3130, Price Action since last weeks swing low looks corrective and i would not be surprised to see this level give way. However i would like to see the price recover to around 1.3380 level before Bank of England Rate decision.
CANDLESTICKS
The Wicks on the Daily Price Charts could be giving a clue that there is accumulation happening for a move higher.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
If we can break below the 100DMA (Key support for the last year), the 38.2 retracement, the Weekly Support 1 Pivot, and the trendline, then a small retrace followed by a break of the lows, this would be a very bearish signal for the Pound.
CATALYSTS
Looking at last weeks data, i see small beats in GDP and Average Hourly Earning's, big misses on Primary Price index and Retail Sales, So not sure why everyone is so bullish on BOE, perhaps i'm missing something. Net Lending to Individuals m/m On Monday Morning and given weak Retail Sales this could be soft too. Looking further ahead, Nov 1 Manufacturing PMI, Nov 2 Construction PMI, BOE Inflation Report, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, Monetary Policy Summary, Official Bank Rate. Nov 3 Services PMI.
We are still trading around the same levels we were at at the beginning of the month, and have been within a 320 pip range, so we are looking for a catalyst to get us trending again, perhaps this BOE Meeting on Thursday will be the Catalyst we need!
CORRELATION
EUR/GBP Below Downward sloping 50 DMA "BULLISH POUND"
GBP/JPY Above Upward Sloping 50 DMA "BULLISH POUND"
Commodity Pairs AUD CAD KIWI Above 50 DMA "BULLISH POUND"
TRADES
Given the Ranging price action, Today being a Monday and Month end Flow's likely to cause a choppy market i am not looking to take any trades today.
My Analysis will include the following aspects.
Trend and Sentiment - Current Price Action in relation to the 50 Moving Average, Commitment of Traders.
Fundamentals - What's Driving the Pound right now?
Momentum - MACD, Stochastic, 10 MA.
Pattern - Elliott Wave in accordance with common patterns such as double tops/bottoms, Triangles, Head and Shoulders, Wedges ETC.
Candlesticks - Common Patterns
Support and Resistance -
Catalysts - Economic Calendar, Session Open, Political Events, Global Events.
Correlation - What are the other GBP Pairs doing?
Trades - Post Setups and results.
TREND AND SENTIMENT
Trend - Monthly Bearish, Weekly Bullish, Daily Neutral/Bullish, Hourly Bearish.
Sentiment - Neutral, Large Speculators and Commercials are essentially flat, Retail Traders slightly long.
FUNDAMENTALS
I believe both of these pairs are currently bullish Sentimentally atleast. The US Data has been good and progress seems to be being made on Tax reform, The Data for the Pound has been mixed however the market seems to be expecting a rate Hike from BOE on Thursday, as long as this expectation remains the Pound is likely to remain well supported. Fundamentally this is not a good pair to be trading until a divergence in sentiment and data emerges. Worth paying attention to this pair on Thursday as a disapointment on Thursday by the BOE could give us a good opportunity to sell Cable.
MOMENTUM
The settings I'm using for Stochastic and MACD are probably foreign to most of you. I learnt how to use these indicators from Barry Burns at "Top Dog Trading" and have never found a sound reason to change.
Mixed Signal Momentum Signature here, Price being below the upward sloping 50 MA, a bullish setup known as "The rubber Band Trade". First oversold on Stochastic after the Slower moving momentum indicator (The Purple line) is a bearish setup.
PATTERN
On the Daily Chart Ideally the Correction of the last 12 Months is now over and have sights lower for an intermediate wave 5.
Maintaining a low conviction bullish count above key level 1.3130, Price Action since last weeks swing low looks corrective and i would not be surprised to see this level give way. However i would like to see the price recover to around 1.3380 level before Bank of England Rate decision.
CANDLESTICKS
The Wicks on the Daily Price Charts could be giving a clue that there is accumulation happening for a move higher.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
If we can break below the 100DMA (Key support for the last year), the 38.2 retracement, the Weekly Support 1 Pivot, and the trendline, then a small retrace followed by a break of the lows, this would be a very bearish signal for the Pound.
CATALYSTS
Looking at last weeks data, i see small beats in GDP and Average Hourly Earning's, big misses on Primary Price index and Retail Sales, So not sure why everyone is so bullish on BOE, perhaps i'm missing something. Net Lending to Individuals m/m On Monday Morning and given weak Retail Sales this could be soft too. Looking further ahead, Nov 1 Manufacturing PMI, Nov 2 Construction PMI, BOE Inflation Report, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, Monetary Policy Summary, Official Bank Rate. Nov 3 Services PMI.
We are still trading around the same levels we were at at the beginning of the month, and have been within a 320 pip range, so we are looking for a catalyst to get us trending again, perhaps this BOE Meeting on Thursday will be the Catalyst we need!
CORRELATION
EUR/GBP Below Downward sloping 50 DMA "BULLISH POUND"
GBP/JPY Above Upward Sloping 50 DMA "BULLISH POUND"
Commodity Pairs AUD CAD KIWI Above 50 DMA "BULLISH POUND"
TRADES
Given the Ranging price action, Today being a Monday and Month end Flow's likely to cause a choppy market i am not looking to take any trades today.
Phenomenal Return This Year:
na