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  • #101
  • Oct 5, 2017 6:48am Oct 5, 2017 6:48am
Indeed. That's why when i initially put on the short, i paired it with some out of the money calls (effectively setting a stop). Good thing I did as those have been a nice hedge (but not a perfect hedge). I'm either thinking of taking off the short and keeping the calls, or taking off half the short and seeing how it plays out.

It would be stubborn for me to just sit here and continue to pretend this looks like a good short. Admitting your wrong early is usually the best policy....
  • #102
  • Oct 6, 2017 9:08pm Oct 6, 2017 9:08pm
3 updates on current holdings of mine:

1) DHI (posted 8/1), pretty much can't ask for much more out of that chart pattern...

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2) NDAQ (posted 7/21) had been running quite well until today. Apparently there's some 200 page report on regulation floating around out there about all sorts of dodd-frank and other regulatory rollbacks. I'm guessing it creates more competition for NDAQ, but i haven't read it. Chart needs to hold on here or I'll be in danger of being stopped out.

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3) CCI (posted 8/6) is another one impacted by some events. The big fall was right after the sprint/t-mobile news. My guess is the market thiinks there's less of a need for cell towers, hence lower earnings for CCI in the future? In anycase, I see $98-99 are as key support and if it fails there, i'll probably bail.

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  • #103
  • Oct 7, 2017 11:32am Oct 7, 2017 11:32am
My current exposure:
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  • #104
  • Oct 7, 2017 11:35pm Oct 7, 2017 11:35pm
Posted this on TradingView. Cup & Handle?
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Also I saw this on the daily that makes me want to short. What is the reason to do business with this company (as a consumer... their "product")
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  • #105
  • Oct 10, 2017 7:25pm Oct 10, 2017 7:25pm
I was stopped out of my short EWU position. Believe it or not, looks like a decent long (keeping my $34-strike calls).

$EWU
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  • #106
  • Oct 16, 2017 6:53pm Oct 16, 2017 6:53pm
I bot this today. Own in the low $42s. Chart is from over the weekend.

https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=esnt&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

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  • #107
  • Oct 17, 2017 10:30pm Oct 17, 2017 10:30pm
Occasionally I'll go through some ETFs to see if there's anything that jumps out at me. Here are two that I saw that caught my attention. Both have been in the news lately for very different reasons. I do worry that these could be sucker bets, but that's why you have to use a stop loss. If you're wrong, you're wrong and you get out quick...

Although I must admit, you'd feel pretty shitty if your EWY short worked out because something truly awful happened...

$EWP (Spain)
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$EWY (South Korea)
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  • #108
  • Oct 18, 2017 11:22pm Oct 18, 2017 11:22pm
What do people think of USD/CHF?

Obviously my comments are tongue & cheek, but they say many a truth are said in jest...

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  • #109
  • Oct 19, 2017 2:28am Oct 19, 2017 2:28am
Quoting InfinitySL
What do people think of USD/CHF? Obviously my comments are tongue & cheek, but they say many a truth are said in jest... {image}
I think the short entry was 1.05, but you know what it is like .... open short now and PA will burst upward
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #110
  • Oct 19, 2017 6:42am Oct 19, 2017 6:42am
My feed doesn't show it ever hitting 1.05 in the last several years... best you could hope for was 1.03ish.

That said, i find it fascinating how the SNB has been fighting the strengthening. We all remember what they did back in Jan 2015 to Eur/CHF. And if you look at some recent news reports, you'd find that the SNB now is like 8th largest holder of US Equities, owns a sh*t load of ETFs, and (this part is really strange) has a publicly traded central bank stock that has been setting new all-time-highs.

Makes you wonder if there isn't something going on over there we're not thinking about.

Alternative way to play is just go long the Swiss Stock Market (See US listed ETF below), but that's sort of a different animal.
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  • #111
  • Oct 19, 2017 8:08am Oct 19, 2017 8:08am
Quoting InfinitySL
My feed doesn't show it ever hitting 1.05 in the last several years... best you could hope for was 1.03ish. That said, i find it fascinating how the SNB has been fighting the strengthening. We all remember what they did back in Jan 2015 to Eur/CHF. And if you look at some recent news reports, you'd find that the SNB now is like 8th largest holder of US Equities, owns a sh*t load of ETFs, and (this part is really strange) has a publicly traded central bank stock that has been setting new all-time-highs. Makes you wonder if there isn't something going...
First: I apologise for not reading the original chart more closely. I have just over 1.03 around the turn of the year.

Second: the SNB shares the profits it makes from its currency meddling etc. amongst the Cantons of Switzerland. The only reason I know this is because a year or two back Thomas Jordan apologised to the Cantons for not at least equalling the previous year's profits. That may account for the 'publicly traded' bank stock since I now imagine the sharing-process is akin to paying a dividend.

I never did understand why printing CHF was such a difficult thing, since the effort to keep the CHF down at the €1.20 seemed to involve only generating sufficient quantities of CHF. However if the SNB does not simply sit upon a vast pile of e.g. US Treasuries that would explain why there are other costs. I wonder if the SNB had any Enron stock......
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #112
  • Oct 24, 2017 8:31pm Oct 24, 2017 8:31pm
Stock at All Time Highs! This Time is Different! Stocks never go down! Your Mother in law bragging about her stock picks! PE Ratios don't matter!

Be careful out there people.

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  • #113
  • Oct 25, 2017 10:25am Oct 25, 2017 10:25am
Quoting InfinitySL
Stock at All Time Highs! This Time is Different! Stocks never go down! Your Mother in law bragging about her stock picks! PE Ratios don't matter! Be careful out there people. {image}
Crypto currencies will be first .... allegedly
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #114
  • Oct 29, 2017 7:43pm Oct 29, 2017 7:43pm
So here are a few stocks I found while drunk last night. Now that my hangover has worn off, I'm posting them. What I find so interesting is that 3 of 5 are utility names. Usually not the smartest play into a rising rate environment (allegedly they are rising). That said perhaps there's an angle here for deregulation/laissez faire attitude towards profit-margins/utility rate increases. I'm not sure about the WHY, i just know the stocks are breaking out.

Hope everyone had a good weekend!
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  • #115
  • Oct 30, 2017 4:30am Oct 30, 2017 4:30am
Utilities are seen as defensive. So in an uncertain environment they become more attractive. They also tend to pay well.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #116
  • Nov 3, 2017 7:03pm Nov 3, 2017 7:03pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Here are some charts that caught my eye this weekend. Unsure what any have done today {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
From July 31: EL

Nice move this week....
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  • #117
  • Nov 4, 2017 11:14am Nov 4, 2017 11:14am
I've tried shorting a few stocks here and there, but generally it's been a losing proposition. I was paging through a book over the weekend and found this great quote from Colm O'Shea from Hedge Fund Market Wizards by Schwager. Anyway, take a look, i think this is an important point for anyone who, like me, finds the US Equity markets overvalued and divorced from reality.

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  • #118
  • Nov 4, 2017 11:25am Nov 4, 2017 11:25am
Quoting InfinitySL
What do people think of USD/CHF? Obviously my comments are tongue & cheek, but they say many a truth are said in jest... {image}
Direction is up, but it may just not go that much further for a while. Let's wait till December FOMC and see.
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  • #119
  • Nov 4, 2017 11:37am Nov 4, 2017 11:37am
Fair point that since 2012 it's certainly been an uptrend, i'm just not sure how long that lasts. We shall see... i have no position in USD/CHF, most of my positions (as i'm sure you've guessed from what I've posted) are in stocks.

Thanks for stopping in!
  • #120
  • Nov 6, 2017 4:09am Nov 6, 2017 4:09am
Quoting InfinitySL
I've tried shorting a few stocks here and there, but generally it's been a losing proposition. I was paging through a book over the weekend and found this great quote from Colm O'Shea from Hedge Fund Market Wizards by Schwager. Anyway, take a look, i think this is an important point for anyone who, like me, finds the US Equity markets overvalued and divorced from reality. {image}
There is a lot of concern in the air at the moment due to the high PE ratios on stocks. I just read an article which observed that the Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings (CAPE) has only been higher on two occasions, 1929 and prior to the dot.com bust.

I also heard someone on the radio say that only about 5 stocks are driving the US indices, with the rest just holding their station ... which sounded like a worrying situation to me.

In the UK we have had 7 (?) consecutive months of declining new car sales. If the same is true in the US then auto-makers might be a good shorting opportunity. On a general basis it seems difficult to believe that a growing US economy and a similar EU economy are a breeding ground for stock market catastrophe, however China has been jumping through some hoops in recent years. Quite a while ago George Soros opened a short on the S&P500, and added to his position a number of months later. I wonder if he is still 'in' .....?
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
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