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  • #12,341
  • Oct 26, 2017 8:24am Oct 26, 2017 8:24am
Quoting kptrader
Any chance it will come back down to 1.27800?
Don't fight market
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
  • #12,342
  • Oct 26, 2017 8:40am Oct 26, 2017 8:40am
Quoting kptrader
Any chance it will come back down to 1.27800?
Only gambler will buy the top....same gamblers who sold 1,20xx back then

I'm not saying it can't go up, but play with ratios...almost 800 pips move up while nothing changed

Monthly is still bearish but hard to trade
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #12,343
  • Oct 26, 2017 9:31am Oct 26, 2017 9:31am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting newbegger
Inverse Head and Shoulders confirmed today. I was stopped out on shorts on this monster move up so not in trade yet. Long orders at 1.2747, stops below 1.2447, targets starting around 1.3180. Not great risk reward but I plan to add on the way up and trail stops.{image}
I am not chasing this pair. If it gets going, let it go and on to next trade.

I am cancelling long order and putting small short order at 1.2861 now as this move is becoming impulsive. Take each trade the plan reveals;-)
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #12,344
  • Oct 26, 2017 10:02am Oct 26, 2017 10:02am
Quoting dianajs
The bulls are in control for the moment. USD/CAD may be stuck in a tight range above 1.2780, but I think that once that ends it will keep moving north to 1.3000.
Yes, it was a steady range, similar to AUDUSD.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Here's Tom with the weather.
  • #12,345
  • Oct 26, 2017 11:23am Oct 26, 2017 11:23am
Looking for 1.2950 area by Nov 24
  • #12,346
  • Oct 26, 2017 3:42pm Oct 26, 2017 3:42pm
Quoting Expo33
{quote} Literally your statement was the beginning of the 700 pip bullish impulse. As I said the writing was on the wall. I hope not too many rookies listened to your continuous UCAD going to 1.11 predictions. Stick to the charts and leave the fundamentals to the pros.
Uh?

It's still going to 1.11XX where there is already a confluence of fibs. The move up right now is mostly technical, not tied to fundamentals. If it has to be "fundamentals" then it's all riding on the hope that the tax reform will get passed which is almost dead upon arrival but the market isn't ready for that realization just yet.

The markets are stubbornly cyclical - alternatively, markets stay irrational longer than you stay solvent. Sounds familiar? This pair has plenty of momentum to get to 1.11XX but it's not readily apparent to those who look at short enough time frames.

Like I said, it's just a matter of when, not if.

I still stand by my prediction. If I am ultimately wrong, then so be it but, for now, my analysis is telling me it is still a real possibility.

FYI - You make it sound like I was on the losing end of a trade on this move up. I wasn't. I made money riding up this move. My trading system has nothing to do with the predictions I'm making about this pair.

If those traders you speak of who put in short positions based on that post of mine, they did so at their risk. They should know better to stick to their trading plan if they have one.
  • #12,347
  • Oct 26, 2017 6:51pm Oct 26, 2017 6:51pm
This pair seems to be at a pivotal stop at least for a bit. I see an engulfing candle in the hourly chart that has provided me with a short position. However, at this time, I'll treat it as a scalp move until I see a clear sign that will align with its monthly down trend.
  • #12,348
  • Oct 26, 2017 7:10pm Oct 26, 2017 7:10pm
Quoting raklian
{quote} Uh? It's still going to 1.11XX where there is already a confluence of fibs. The move up right now is mostly technical, not tied to fundamentals. If it has to be "fundamentals" then it's all riding on the hope that the tax reform will get passed which is almost dead upon arrival but the market isn't ready for that realization just yet. The markets are stubbornly cyclical - alternatively, markets stay irrational longer than you stay solvent. Sounds familiar? This pair has plenty of momentum to get to 1.11XX but it's not readily apparent to...
"It's still going to 1.11XX where there is already a confluence of fibs"

Please stop with the foolish Nostradamus predictions. Price goes where it wants based on a market driven by fear and greed.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #12,349
  • Oct 27, 2017 5:47am Oct 27, 2017 5:47am
Quoting kptrader
Any chance it will come back down to 1.27800?
Nobody here can answer that for you with any certainty. Here are a few ideas. Check out the Usd GDP and the Canadian GDP and compare them. Then compare the CPI figures and the interest rate figures. Have a look at the monthly, weekly charts, especially with the 100 sma. Wonder how Trump's NAFTA policy places Canada?

Somebody here posted that the monthly trend was down. That is patently wrong. Look where the 100mma is: 1.13. That's the two year monthly average and we are trading 1,500 pips above it.

Don't listen to the clowns here (including me). Read the facts and make a decision to close a bad trade.
Gone to a better place
  • #12,350
  • Oct 27, 2017 5:50am Oct 27, 2017 5:50am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Only gambler will buy the top....same gamblers who sold 1,20xx back then I'm not saying it can't go up, but play with ratios...almost 800 pips move up while nothing changed Monthly is still bearish but hard to trade
Could you let me know how you decide the monthly is bearish?
Gone to a better place
  • #12,351
  • Oct 27, 2017 5:57am Oct 27, 2017 5:57am
Quoting raklian
{quote} Uh? It's still going to 1.11XX where there is already a confluence of fibs. The move up right now is mostly technical, not tied to fundamentals. If it has to be "fundamentals" then it's all riding on the hope that the tax reform will get passed which is almost dead upon arrival but the market isn't ready for that realization just yet. The markets are stubbornly cyclical - alternatively, markets stay irrational longer than you stay solvent. Sounds familiar? This pair has plenty of momentum to get to 1.11XX but it's not readily apparent to...
You seem pretty damn sure you are right. You corrected my analysis here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post10422084 . I did not want to get into an argument at that point, and I am never as self assured as you.

Since then the price has gone up by over 200 pips. You sound like you know what you are talking about, but you don't. That's what the rookies don't need.
Gone to a better place
  • #12,352
  • Oct 27, 2017 8:43am Oct 27, 2017 8:43am
Quoting user954
Looking for 1.2950 area by Nov 24
u didnt have to wait that long, almost there
  • #12,353
  • Edited 12:37pm Oct 27, 2017 9:09am | Edited 12:37pm
I wouldn't be surprised if it reaches 1.2950 at the beginning of next week. If anything it should rally above that level.
  • #12,354
  • Oct 27, 2017 2:36pm Oct 27, 2017 2:36pm
Quoting smikester
{quote} Could you let me know how you decide the monthly is bearish?
Mate...price went from a move to 1,37 to 1,20 in 3 months....so for you such move is bullish ?

Now i'm saying monthly is still on its bearish move only because the monthly bounce is weak, volume is low, PA is not strong.

I may be wrong and its life

PS : if you like i can post my analysis on weekly/monthly....i'm just lazy to do it on my own
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #12,355
  • Oct 28, 2017 9:47am Oct 28, 2017 9:47am
Quoting xfc
This pair seems to be at a pivotal stop at least for a bit. I see an engulfing candle in the hourly chart that has provided me with a short position. However, at this time, I'll treat it as a scalp move until I see a clear sign that will align with its monthly down trend.
just to provide more clarity on the pivotal stop I mentioned above: the pair was between FIB retracement 38 - 50% on the weekly chart, with multiple hourly bearish engulfing candles...nice recipe for short scalp especially since monthly trend is down.
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  • #12,356
  • Oct 28, 2017 11:02am Oct 28, 2017 11:02am
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  • #12,357
  • Oct 29, 2017 5:30pm Oct 29, 2017 5:30pm
This is a great week to speculate on this pair!
Stacking pips since 2002
  • #12,358
  • Oct 29, 2017 5:34pm Oct 29, 2017 5:34pm
This could very well be the week this pair goes into a full blown bull mode. However I love to play the antagonist. Also if you approach anything in this market with a biased thought process your straight up done.
Stacking pips since 2002
  • #12,359
  • Oct 29, 2017 6:24pm Oct 29, 2017 6:24pm
Technically this pair is in an uptrend on the daily and weekly charts on the short term. Last week the price broke the middle of what I believe to be a stable channel on the daily and bounced right of the very top like it should. On the weekly we have two nice horizontal resistance lines as shown above. When you take a closer look at the levels of the weekly highs that need to be broken this week on the daily chart, you can see that this may be a problem. When you add in the macros and geos there are many things that can happen. Jerome Powell might be the next fed chair which is just a rumour so far trump will make the official announcement this week. This seems to be pulling on the price. Theres a slew of probable solid data for this week on the USD. If this data comes out as forcasted I'm sure it'll make investors forget about everything else just long enough to push through those two resistance lines. Lets not forget about NAFTA.... Been pushed out till March and maybe scraped all together. Straight up terrible news for Canadian imports and so obviously this will cause a huge chain reaction with regards to macros in a bearish fashion. It makes sense that the fed pushes up the dollar in anticipation that Nafta gets scrapped since the US imports more then it exports. Need that bying power right?. It also makes sense that the fed gets the dollar as high as possible to compensate for future price depreciation that would be likely hit the dollar when a new fed chair is filled and starts messing with monetary policy. Powell is after all an investment banker and not an economist. Things could likely end up being very different. Theres obviously more to consider but these are some things traders need to think about.
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Stacking pips since 2002
  • #12,360
  • Oct 29, 2017 11:04pm Oct 29, 2017 11:04pm
Bullish trend remain intact, 1.30 act as very strong handle on the upside, break above the immediate resistance level 1.2920 would open the door to more gains.
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