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Trading Made Simple

  • #82,761
  • Oct 25, 2017 6:35pm Oct 25, 2017 6:35pm
Quoting catalin_eros
{quote} Hm, I just cannot see it, Emm. Would you be so kind and explain your decision to sell? I have already explained why I see wrong in shorting EU. The pro that I see would be that we had an Arjun candle on D1. Is that your reason to sell EU today?

Ok, The market was right again yesterday like most times.

I had used the HA, PAC and TDI Moderate rules on the Monday Close.

Anyway, strat posted the WCC for EURUSD
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post10427129

That EU WCC is the next opportunity I see in coming weeks. Also pay attention to the Monthly when next week market clsoe the October MN candle.

I will start wind down my trades next week and start my year-end vacation in Week 46... back only in Week 02 / 2018.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,762
  • Oct 25, 2017 6:37pm Oct 25, 2017 6:37pm
Quoting TidalSurf
Hi Emmanuel, I have sent you a private message. Just incase you did not see it. Thanks man!!!

Ok. I see that now and will reply this weekend. Very busy during the weekdays.

Patience please.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,763
  • Oct 25, 2017 6:41pm Oct 25, 2017 6:41pm
Quoting Jaizy
Excellent trading week!!! I used the three mechanical rules on thé daily chart .... All going very well. EUR/aud EUR/jpy Usd/cad Very happy.... Good day To all
Nice and well done!

follow the three basic mechanical rules but Do Not forget the Big Picture and trade only the 2 Market Types.

I love those EUR crosses - EURAUD, EURCAD and EURNZD. Lots of pips in one Day.

USDCAD and USDCHF not bad too this whole week.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,764
  • Oct 25, 2017 7:35pm Oct 25, 2017 7:35pm
emm.. you can't trade buddy.. we all saw your TE where you went U/J long on daily resistance.. and it ended in you pulling out the TE.. it was a noobie mistake.. you can type, not trade.. live with it.. (i am not a good trader too)
  • #82,765
  • Oct 25, 2017 7:54pm Oct 25, 2017 7:54pm
Quoting bluejack
emm.. you can't trade buddy.. we all saw your TE where you went U/J long on daily resistance.. and it ended in you pulling out the TE.. it was a noobie mistake.. you can type, not trade.. live with it.. (i am not a good trader too)

hey bluejack,

your are right.
I cannot trade because I am an investor and after 20 years, I still make some noobie mistakes.
about that TE UJ trades, that was many months. My TEs are private and open to selected few members only.
However, If you want to see real investor type of trades, I can show you my FXBlue account.
I did manage to recover that UJ losses and kept that little investment growing again, good thing is that that little UJ account never went below my initial startup capital.


trade well.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,766
  • Oct 25, 2017 8:09pm Oct 25, 2017 8:09pm
Not using MT4 at this very moment (I am using my new mac! :-P)

Anyway, I took a few positions(as marked using vertical line) on GOLD,USDCHF and USDJPY by following the original method by Big E.

Here's the chart:

(GOLD, H4) BUY
Attached Image


(USDJPY, H4) SELL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2017-10-26 at 9.06.10 AM.png Size: 57 KB


(USDCHF, H4) SELL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2017-10-26 at 9.06.19 AM.png Size: 44 KB


Thanks!
Trade Different
Multi 3000 All Time Pips: 23,606
  • #82,767
  • Oct 25, 2017 8:42pm Oct 25, 2017 8:42pm
USDJPY H4 Swing traders.

there is a belief with Weekly swing traders is that when the market reach Fib extension 127% and fails to make higher, price will reverse.

Do you have such belief?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY Fib127 reversal.png Size: 37 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,768
  • Oct 25, 2017 8:42pm Oct 25, 2017 8:42pm
Quoting TidalSurf
Not using MT4 at this very moment (I am using my new mac! :-P) Anyway, I took a few positions(as marked using vertical line) on GOLD,USDCHF and USDJPY by following the original method by Big E. Here's the chart: (GOLD, H4) BUY {image} (USDJPY, H4) SELL {image} (USDCHF, H4) SELL {image} Thanks!

USDJPY is nice but I still will wait.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,769
  • Oct 25, 2017 10:57pm Oct 25, 2017 10:57pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
USDJPY H4 Swing traders. there is a belief with Weekly swing traders is that when the market reach Fib extension 127% and fails to make higher, price will reverse. Do you have such belief? {image}
I trade what I see hehe. As Big E said "make it simple"

I have already closed all 3 entries though.

Total:
USDJPY +17 pips
USDCHF -11 pips
GOLD + 320 pips

Gotta stay out for now, market ranging :-)

Good pippin' day to y'all brothers.
Trade Different
Multi 3000 All Time Pips: 23,606
  • #82,770
  • Oct 25, 2017 11:41pm Oct 25, 2017 11:41pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi, I think TheMark's membership was revoked by Forex Factory do have zero tolerance for certain online behaviour. However, I read his thread post which title caught my attention "Pivot Trading with TDI" & Thinking Outside The Box Thinking out of the box is what I encourage people to do all the time. Be open minded and accept criticism, and be open for robust discussions. I do agree with most of the points TheMark made in the context. Over the past 20 years, I have studied many trading systems using different version of pivots indicators...
I keep an eye on both of these threads as they are an indicator of activity in general. There have been discussion of floating drawdown in them. Some of the positions had been held for quite some time. Now, if a newbie comes along and loads up a chart without the understanding of trade management, is that deception? I guess it depends on how you define the term. Davit states in line one of page one that his system is not for newbies. It is unfortunate that two committed members of the factory have conflict. I never saw the fib pivots renamed unless you are talking about the title of the indies and if that's the case it happens all the time. They are mq4 files so anyone can look under the hood if they like. Thinking outside of the box was just a hit piece and little else, which is why to OP got himself canned. He was just a vendor looking for newbies to fleece. FF is good about killing that. Anyway as I know you are a civil person I thought I would chime in here as I don't have much on the plate this week.

Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} hey bluejack, your are right. I cannot trade because I am an investor and after 20 years, I still make some noobie mistakes. about that TE UJ trades, that was many months. My TEs are private and open to selected few members only. However, If you want to see real investor type of trades, I can show you my FXBlue account. I did manage to recover that UJ losses and kept that little investment growing again, good thing is that that little UJ account never went below my initial startup capital. trade well.
I am not a trader either. I am an inventory manager. But I still like to read threads.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #82,771
  • Oct 26, 2017 12:44am Oct 26, 2017 12:44am
Quoting TidalSurf
{quote} I trade what I see hehe. As Big E said "make it simple" I have already closed all 3 entries though. Total: USDJPY +17 pips USDCHF -11 pips GOLD + 320 pips Gotta stay out for now, market ranging :-) Good pippin' day to y'all brothers.

Wow... good number of pips for few hours of work..


Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,772
  • Oct 26, 2017 2:34am Oct 26, 2017 2:34am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Ok, The market was right again yesterday like most times. I had used the HA, PAC and TDI Moderate rules on the Monday Close. Anyway, strat posted the WCC for EURUSD https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post10427129 That EU WCC is the next opportunity I see in coming weeks. Also pay attention to the Monthly when next week market clsoe the October MN candle. I will start wind down my trades next week and start my year-end vacation in Week 46... back only in Week 02 / 2018.
Should I assume you are in cut losses phase, since we had a HH/HL on D1?

And one more question: Wasn't it a bad entry for the mechanical system? Unless there is a broker difference between our charts, the APB candle did not close under the PAC, it was almost there, but still above the PAC.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 86 KB
  • #82,773
  • Oct 26, 2017 2:57am Oct 26, 2017 2:57am
Quoting catalin_eros
{quote} Should I assume you are in cut losses phase, since we had a HH/HL on D1? And one more question: Wasn't it a bad entry for the mechanical system? Unless there is a broker difference between our charts, the APB candle did not close under the PAC, it was almost there, but still above the PAC. {image}
about mechanical systems:
In my system development testing of 10-years history data on D1 chart using the HA, PAC and TDI Moderate, the win rate for EU buy is 45% and sell is only 43%.
I used the broker with GMT+2 server time and usually there can be slight difference in the Daily OHLC for different brokers even with the same server time. When you have different OHLC prices, this also mean you will see different PAC High-Low.

Looking in the DataWindow I can see my HA Close is below the PAC Low... very small amount but using a dashboard for alert this will show in my dashboard alert.

Attached Image
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,774
  • Oct 26, 2017 3:01am Oct 26, 2017 3:01am
Quoting emmanuel7788
USDJPY H4 Swing traders. there is a belief with Weekly swing traders is that when the market reach Fib extension 127% and fails to make higher, price will reverse. Do you have such belief? {image}
Here is what I see in UJ: D1 resistance was broken, and I marked it with the yellow area on H4 chart. Price came back to retest the resistance and turn it into support, and it may close as a BUOB, we have a rejection of the TL, plus a possible HD on the TDI. I am preparing to go long if things turn from 'it may' to 'it did'. One more hour to see if this happens.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4.png Size: 94 KB
  • #82,775
  • Oct 26, 2017 3:06am Oct 26, 2017 3:06am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} about mechanical systems: In my system development testing of 10-years history data on D1 chart using the HA, PAC and TDI Moderate, the win rate for EU buy is 45% and sell is only 43%. I used the broker with GMT+2 server time and usually there can be slight difference in the Daily OHLC for different brokers even with the same server time. When you have different OHLC prices, this also mean you will see different PAC High-Low. Looking in the DataWindow I can see my HA Close is below the PAC Low... very small amount but using a dashboard for...
I see. So the rules were in place, it is just a broker difference. But what about the W1 chart? Doesn't that show ranging market, with those small candles and the IB? The ATR 52 is only 188 pips. Is that a good value to show wide range market???

As always, thanks for your time and explanations, Emm!
  • #82,776
  • Oct 26, 2017 3:11am Oct 26, 2017 3:11am
Quoting catalin_eros
{quote} Here is what I see in UJ: D1 resistance was broken, and I marked it with the yellow area on H4 chart. Price came back to retest the resistance and turn it into support, and it may close as a BUOB, we have a rejection of the TL, plus a possible HD on the TDI. I am preparing to go long if things turn from 'it may' to 'it did'. One more hour to see if this happens. {image}

I have several buy positions waiting for take profit to close shop for this week.
It too early to sell or some say not time to sell unless your are averaging down your early sell positions which are in floating drawdown.

H4 below chart show one hour to closing candle.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY Oct 26 one hour to H4 close.png Size: 59 KB


H4 buy when the PA is above the 200EMA ...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,777
  • Oct 26, 2017 3:29am Oct 26, 2017 3:29am
Quoting catalin_eros
{quote} I see. So the rules were in place, it is just a broker difference. But what about the W1 chart? Doesn't that show ranging market, with those small candles and the IB? The ATR 52 is only 188 pips. Is that a good value to show wide range market??? As always, thanks for your time and explanations, Emm!
Look at the MN chart, the last 2 months shows that the 2017 bull rally has ended and now we have ranging conditions.

Small range is also good for range trading when the Daily ATR(100) is 82 pips, and Weekly ATR(52) is 189 pips.
This means we wont reach maximum 5 ME positions per basket. Average is 3.5 ME positions per basket which means was can either breakeven or take profits in smaller range. Increase lot position size and the money grows exponentially. Adopt SMART money management strategy

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Week 42 Oct 26.png Size: 67 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,778
  • Oct 26, 2017 4:31am Oct 26, 2017 4:31am
Quoting ttblue3
New Here. Found this TMS just 2 weeks. And start to reading, taking notes. Will look back again. Just want to say thank you everyone here today. Really enjoy this. Best.

Welcome to TMS,

You just started on a very long journey. There are many milestones to reach.
To gain knowledge and experience takes lots of hours of hard and diligent work.
But when you have the knowledge and the experience, these are your earthly possessions.
You can share them with others but they can never take them away from you.

Attached Image
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #82,779
  • Oct 26, 2017 4:44am Oct 26, 2017 4:44am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Look at the MN chart, the last 2 months shows that the 2017 bull rally has ended and now we have ranging conditions. Small range is also good for range trading when the Daily ATR(100) is 82 pips, and Weekly ATR(52) is 189 pips. This means we wont reach maximum 5 ME positions per basket. Average is 3.5 ME positions per basket which means was can either breakeven or take profits in smaller range. Increase lot position size and the money grows exponentially. Adopt SMART™ money management strategy {image}
Thank you for replying, Emm!

Here is something that I want to talk to you about:

If you are interested, I can send you a PM regarding a MM idea that I had, which allows you to reduce risk by even about 62.5%. So instead of losing 1k pips on a trade, we would lose only 375 pips. I presented this idea in Guido's group, but I received feedback from only one trader. Unfortunately, it seems that they did not find it useful, nor interesting. But to me, controlling risk is all that matters, as the pips that I lose are far more important than the pips that I make. Let me know if you are interested, and I will send you very detailed information.
  • #82,780
  • Oct 26, 2017 5:38am Oct 26, 2017 5:38am
Quoting catalin_eros
{quote} which allows you to reduce risk by even about 62.5%. So instead of losing 1k pips on a trade, we would lose only 375 pips. I presented this idea in Guido's group, but I received feedback from only one trader. Unfortunately, it seems that they did not find it useful, nor interesting. But to me,.

You´re a very valuable player in our small group, a buddy since a long time and a discussion with you is always worth it.
During the last 8-9 Years When I started trading I learned one thing basicly.
Never change a running system.
That means not that I´m not open minded.

But 99% of the traders who lose money do it for ONE reason.
The confidence!
How should someone collect confidence to stay in a losing trade.. a losing streak or just some hard moments when a large spike appears and your position comes unexpected in drawdown.

I say with 100% confidence;
-not the system,
-not the moneymanagement,
-not the broker is the weak part in trading.

It´s the trader.. only the fu..ng trader, nobody else.

I can just speak for myself:
My TMS Demo account lottery style made yesterday the 1000% watermark.
That was for me confidence enough to add it to a separate small new live account ( separate from my Choros/Dance intraday live trading)
In around 2 years.. when I already made 100 trades ( 1-3 pairs a week and I call 1 pair= 1 trade) and collected
a valuable number of trades to say " damn could be better" or incredible profitable..
Then I can start thinking about how to make things better.
The confidence in me, the system and the moneymanagement is for me the most important thing in trading.

Amen ;-)

Guido
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
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