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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #35,341
  • Oct 23, 2017 8:11am Oct 23, 2017 8:11am
Quoting medici
{quote} Have you considered filtering stocks based on PEG ratio? Investing based on that has historically yielded superior returns.
yes, i thought about it. but which growth rate should i use? medium growth rate over the past x years, extrapolated for the next y years? in which way can that estimated growth rate be objectified? since my portfolio is ourperforming dax and dow, iīm not so eager to use another filter. but thx, iīll think about it again.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #35,342
  • Oct 23, 2017 8:42am Oct 23, 2017 8:42am
Regardless of valuation stocks are one of the "few games in town". Savers get nothing. Gold has gone nowhere for 6+ years and most people won't put their retirement money into it anyway. Real estate depending on where some is up, some is down.

And the other positive equities have is there are less of them (M&A, taken private etc) every year. Therefore more money chasing fewer stocks.
  • #35,343
  • Oct 23, 2017 8:44am Oct 23, 2017 8:44am
Quoting deltaone
{quote} yes, i thought about it. but which growth rate should i use? medium growth rate over the past x years, extrapolated for the next y years? in which way can that estimated growth rate be objectified? since my portfolio is ourperforming dax and dow, iīm not so eager to use another filter. but thx, iīll think about it again.
Somewhat simplified:

1. Use the standardised PEG ratios provided by the data providers.

2. Define possible strategies, and backtest using historical data.

3. Evaluate and invest.

For data, check out https://ycharts.com/
  • #35,344
  • Edited 3:12pm Oct 23, 2017 9:19am | Edited 3:12pm
Quoting SunTrader
Regardless of valuation stocks are one of the "few games in town". Savers get nothing. Gold has gone nowhere for 6+ years and most people won't put their retirement money into it anyway. Real estate depending on where some is up, some is down. And the other positive equities have is there are less of them (M&A, taken private etc) every year. Therefore more money chasing fewer stocks.
ZIRP kills all games, including real estate, except value creation. The rest becomes zero-sum games and Ponzi schemes.

A friend of mine, who has made his career in real estate investments, these days puts all his investable funds in tech startups.

When the Ponzi schemes collapse we're going to be in a situation where people realise that things have to be priced at value, not at tulip mania prices.

That's when all the money sloshing around is going to cause runaway inflation.

Peter Shiff can be embarrassing in the way he talks his own book, but he really understands economics, and in this snippet he alludes to the kind of situation we should be prepared for:

Inserted Video
  • #35,345
  • Oct 23, 2017 6:58pm Oct 23, 2017 6:58pm
Quoting medici
... Peter Shiff can be embarrassing in the way he talks his own book, but he really understands economics, and in this snippet he alludes to the kind of situation we should be prepared for:
Although I like to search out those who might have a contrary opinion to my own, Schiff he has been saying the same thing over and over. It's a wonder he still manages money. Or does he?

Keynes is another economically speaking but he was right when he said something to the effect of markets staying irrational longer than we can stay solvent - especially when betting against them.
  • #35,346
  • Oct 24, 2017 1:32am Oct 24, 2017 1:32am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Schiff he has been saying the same thing over and over. It's a wonder he still manages money. Or does he?
He does still run Euro Pacific Asset Management as well as his gold dealership, but he also has a strongly libertarian slant on most things he's saying - thus the repetitiveness of his message, I believe.
  • #35,347
  • Oct 24, 2017 1:35am Oct 24, 2017 1:35am
Interesting moves overnight.

In volatility-adjusted terms, a sizeable move down for the S&P 500.

And right now, towards the close, the Hang Seng 50 is testing the lows from the Thursday sell-of.

Good luck today!
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  • #35,348
  • Oct 24, 2017 2:31am Oct 24, 2017 2:31am
Good morning,
after a Close under the weekly Pivot yesterday, I'm looking for Shorts today.......
It was the first daily Close under a weekly Pivot Point since 4 weeks...a possible turn for a leg down
  • #35,349
  • Oct 24, 2017 2:52am Oct 24, 2017 2:52am
Quoting mattkirby
Good morning, after a Close under the weekly Pivot yesterday, I'm looking for Shorts today....... It was the first daily Close under a weekly Pivot Point since 4 weeks...a possible turn for a leg down
Yes, it's all rolling over south.

For the moment, though, the US indices are retracing the overnight sell-off, giving a drift in the other direction. DJI supported by SMA50 @ H1 and S&P 500 by SMA100 @ H1.
  • #35,350
  • Oct 24, 2017 3:31am Oct 24, 2017 3:31am
DAX in 5 Days / 5 minutes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #35,351
  • Oct 24, 2017 3:42am Oct 24, 2017 3:42am
good day,

13 votes so far for the poll which closes on friday with an average of 13.080.
i donīt expect big moves till ecb pc on thursday.

good luck!
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #35,352
  • Oct 24, 2017 3:45am Oct 24, 2017 3:45am
when there's a 5 min Close under the 1hour Pivot now I will start to sell with first target 12950
  • #35,353
  • Oct 24, 2017 3:49am Oct 24, 2017 3:49am
Quoting parisboy
DAX in 5 Days / 5 minutes {image}
Beautiful chart again

Not a trend in sight, but thankfully some nice swings.
  • #35,354
  • Oct 24, 2017 3:55am Oct 24, 2017 3:55am
Quoting mattkirby
when there's a 5 min Close under the 1hour Pivot now I will start to sell with first target 12950
If I could move the market and could chose a place to start selling from, this would be it.
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  • #35,355
  • Oct 24, 2017 4:05am Oct 24, 2017 4:05am
Quoting medici
{quote} ZIRP kills all games, including real estate, except value creation. The rest becomes zero-sum games and Ponzi schemes. A friend of mine, who has made his career in real estate investments, these days puts all his investable funds in tech startups. When the Ponzi schemes collapse we're going to be in a situation where people realise that things have to be priced at value, not at tulip mania prices. That's when all the money sloshing around is going to cause runaway inflation. Peter Shiff can be embarrassing in the way he talks his own book,...
never heard that acronym before, had to google it. makes me smile: zirp is the german onomatopoeia for the sound of a cricket

i donīt think that zirp kills all games. itīs a good environment for real assets and a bad one for cash and bonds.

last stock i bought was raytheon in april @142,50. happy with it but need new ideas, sitting on cash to be invested.
not a gold fetishist, but holding around 10% in it as a worst case scenario insurance.
sold real estate 2015 with an price increase of nearly 100% over a 8 years holding period but not willing to buy at actual levels.

to me, there are two bubbles: bonds and bitcoin.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #35,356
  • Edited 4:28am Oct 24, 2017 4:15am | Edited 4:28am
Quoting deltaone
{quote} i donīt think that zirp kills all games. itīs a good environment for real assets and a bad one for cash and bonds.
and

Quote
sold real estate 2015 with an price increase of nearly 100% over a 8 years holding period but not willing to buy at actual levels

is what I meant. Productive assets that create value will always be a game. Buying real estate for price appreciation is over, with some exceptions of course.

Quote
to me, there are two bubbles: bonds and bitcoin.

And bubbles won't, unless you're in early and out before the majority.

Yes, bitcoin is like a re-run of the dotcom bubble.
  • #35,357
  • Oct 24, 2017 4:24am Oct 24, 2017 4:24am
Not chasing this momentum, been burnt 4 times trying to chase the Dax. I was expecting it to lift after the PMI data.

Back to Hang Seng tomorrow.
  • #35,358
  • Oct 24, 2017 4:27am Oct 24, 2017 4:27am
DAX in 24 H / 1 minute
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  • #35,359
  • Oct 24, 2017 4:35am Oct 24, 2017 4:35am
Quoting medici
{quote} If I could move the market and could chose a place to start selling from, this would be it. {image}
I wish you good luck with that
If it will work all depends how the market reaches that point
Fast run high chance
Slow build up like what is happening now lower chances
  • #35,360
  • Oct 24, 2017 4:37am Oct 24, 2017 4:37am
Quoting parisboy
DAX in 24 H / 1 minute {image}
Thank you. I have a similar picture - at upper edge of channel but faster channel pointing solidly up. Let's see what the lunch hour brings.
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