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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #35,301
  • Oct 21, 2017 11:31am Oct 21, 2017 11:31am
Quoting AlexC
{quote} There are variations in projections of median lines. DowJones Monthly {image}
And if I use that method on previous boom-bust cycles I get less helpful results....What's the objective method that doesn't involve fitting input to desired result, please?
  • #35,302
  • Oct 21, 2017 2:18pm Oct 21, 2017 2:18pm
Quoting medici
{quote} Absolutely. At the same time, the markets move in cycles - boom, bust, rinse, repeat - and will continue to do so. By most measures things are out of balance. This will correct itself at some point. When that will happen is, as you say, pointless to try to predict - unless you are using some kind of scientifically verified model for doing so, such as:
In hindsight.

Each bull market has a new bunch of experts predicting the end is coming, the end is coming.

No doubt. Just that they are more times than not waaaaaaaay too early with their call.
  • #35,303
  • Oct 21, 2017 2:34pm Oct 21, 2017 2:34pm
Quoting medici
{quote} Well, you've removed the pitchfork I referred to I guess that says something.

It says that you don't comprehend. I didn't remove it. It's there but you didn't see it.
You studied pitchforks extensively? Yeah right. You would have known. Your questions give you away.

"Good traders trade. Good letter writers write letters."
-Ed Saykota
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  • #35,304
  • Oct 21, 2017 2:43pm Oct 21, 2017 2:43pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} In hindsight. Each bull market has a new bunch of experts predicting the end is coming, the end is coming. No doubt. Just that they are more times than not waaaaaaaay too early with their call.
Well, you never know. Last time around I advised people to start getting out of equities at the end of May 2007. Dow made a high 500 points above in October, after having been down 1100 points from the end of May before that. So end of May was a good time to get out, and some people still thank me for the advice when I talk to them. We'll see how many months away the top is this time around and what volatility will unfold in between.

Apart from just being dismissive, what is your own view? How much longer do you think this will last before a 10% correction? 1 year? 10 years?
  • #35,305
  • Edited 4:11pm Oct 21, 2017 2:50pm | Edited 4:11pm
Quoting AlexC
{quote} It says that you don't comprehend. I didn't remove it. It's there but you didn't see it. You studied pitchforks extensively? Yeah right. You would have known. Your questions give you away. "Good traders trade. Good letter writers write letters." -Ed Saykota {image}
I would have appreciated if you had answered my questions or given some helpful advice. Instead you attack me as a person. You're now on my ignore list.
  • #35,306
  • Oct 21, 2017 2:56pm Oct 21, 2017 2:56pm
Quoting medici
{quote} Well, you never know. Last time around I advised people to start getting out of equities at the end of May 2007....
I don't aim to be right, I aim to be profitable.
  • #35,307
  • Oct 21, 2017 3:03pm Oct 21, 2017 3:03pm
Fibs, in the rearview mirror, on S&P sure do line up good:
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  • #35,308
  • Oct 21, 2017 3:06pm Oct 21, 2017 3:06pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} I don't aim to be right, I aim to be profitable.
Oh, but this isn't trading - it's online banter. And as such, I was hoping that you would make a contribution for the sake of the argument. You may criticise others, but if you don't offer a perspective of your own, it doesn't make for good conversation.
  • #35,309
  • Edited 4:12pm Oct 21, 2017 4:01pm | Edited 4:12pm
Quoting medici
{quote} Oh, but this isn't trading - it's online banter. And as such, I was hoping that you would make a contribution for the sake of the argument. You may criticise others, but if you don't offer a perspective of your own, it doesn't make for good conversation.
I'll stick to trading thank you very much. You can stick to giving out other people's opinion and what the fed/ecb/boe/boj is doing and all the debt and money printing and what the gold permabulls (did ya see Marc Faber this past week lol?) are saying about it yada yada.
  • #35,310
  • Oct 21, 2017 4:14pm Oct 21, 2017 4:14pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote}
I'll stick to trading thank you very much.
Yes, perhaps that what we should be doing, but I find the macro view interesting.

Quote
You can stick to giving out other people's opinion and what the fed/ecb/boe/boj is doing and all the debt and money printing and what the gold permabulls (did ya see Marc Faber this past week lol?) are saying about it yada yada.

Opinions are my own thank you very much.
  • #35,311
  • Oct 21, 2017 4:31pm Oct 21, 2017 4:31pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} In hindsight. Each bull market has a new bunch of experts predicting the end is coming, the end is coming. No doubt. Just that they are more times than not waaaaaaaay too early with their call.
If I had a nickel for every stock market crash prediction.........

Some day someone will guess it correctly, have big funds thrown @ them for being a genius, then 5 years later close down their hedge fund for poor performance.
  • #35,312
  • Oct 21, 2017 4:49pm Oct 21, 2017 4:49pm
SPX weekly Andrews pitchfork:
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  • #35,313
  • Oct 21, 2017 4:52pm Oct 21, 2017 4:52pm
Quoting srt
{quote} If I had a nickel for every stock market crash prediction......... Some day someone will guess it correctly, have big funds thrown @ them for being a genius, then 5 years later close down their hedge fund for poor performance.
Yup. EWI's Prechter correctly called the infamous '87 top then called at least 6 more tops that whoops never happened.

He was smart though. Doesn't trade money, he sells advice and education. He's another "that is not how it's done". TA is as much art as it is science. Elliott himself never had rules, he had guidelines.
  • #35,314
  • Oct 21, 2017 5:56pm Oct 21, 2017 5:56pm
Quoting medici
{quote} I would have appreciated if you had answered my questions or given some helpful advice. Instead you attack me as a person. You're now on my ignore list.
I would have appreciated if you hadn't attacked my charts claiming they're subjective and I curve fit them because you're wrong.
I did answered your questions with charts but you didn't acknowledge the answers and you superficially dismissed pitchforks.
My helpful advice to you would be don't be a know it all and to live and learn.
  • #35,315
  • Oct 21, 2017 8:39pm Oct 21, 2017 8:39pm
ST,

Todd Gordon from EWI is actually calling an important top of the S&P too.

Sixer
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  • #35,316
  • Oct 22, 2017 8:42am Oct 22, 2017 8:42am
Quoting Sixer
ST, Todd Gordon from EWI is actually calling an important top of the S&P too. Sixer {image}
Saw that Friday webcast (until I found it lacking), but btw he has his own company and is not from EWI.

Also IMO he is not that good when it comes to Elliott Waves.
  • #35,317
  • Oct 22, 2017 10:48pm Oct 22, 2017 10:48pm
ST,

sorry, you are right - my mistake.

Sixer
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  • #35,318
  • Oct 23, 2017 12:05am Oct 23, 2017 12:05am
Short @ 13.005 (FDAX) sl -15 tp +30
  • #35,319
  • Oct 23, 2017 12:06am Oct 23, 2017 12:06am
Quoting KjellDT
Short @ 13.005 (FDAX) sl -15 tp +30
sl = be now, tp +45
  • #35,320
  • Oct 23, 2017 12:11am Oct 23, 2017 12:11am
good morning,

11 votes so far for the poll which closes on friday.
on average, those who have voted expect the dax to be around 13.204,55 (calculation based on the "=values").
letīs see how good this expected value will fit the dax level on yearly close.

good luck!
fortis fortuna adiuvat
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