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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #35,281
  • Oct 21, 2017 7:15am Oct 21, 2017 7:15am
S&P 500 vs earnings


The chart below ends in June. Since then the S&P has continued 150 points upwards.

Go figure.
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  • #35,282
  • Edited 7:33am Oct 21, 2017 7:19am | Edited 7:33am
Weekend puzzle

After Friday's push higher, the Russell 2000 has reached a P/E ratio of 115.45, while the dividend yield is 1.33%.

One third of the companies comprising the index reported no profit last quarter. Earnings season starts next week.

Are the risks to the upside or downside?
  • #35,283
  • Oct 21, 2017 7:51am Oct 21, 2017 7:51am
Quoting medici
Weekend puzzle After Friday's push higher, the Russell 2000 has reached a P/E ratio of 115.45, while the dividend yield is 1.33%. One third of the companies comprising the index reported no profit last quarter. Earnings season starts next week. Are the risks to the upside or downside?
Government manipulation via FED but what can you do besides to stick with trend and just buy pullbacks. After each pullback markets pull back up again to new highs. This is the current trend and has been over the last 8 years in America. Best tobstick with the flow instead of trying to predict market top. With QE money printing 24/7 off the printing presses there is no tip for this market.
  • #35,284
  • Oct 21, 2017 8:54am Oct 21, 2017 8:54am
DJ30 Weekly
Long term perspective
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  • #35,285
  • Oct 21, 2017 8:57am Oct 21, 2017 8:57am
S&P500 weekly
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  • #35,286
  • Oct 21, 2017 8:58am Oct 21, 2017 8:58am
DAX weekly
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  • #35,287
  • Oct 21, 2017 9:14am Oct 21, 2017 9:14am
Quoting medici
After a record week, here's some excellent discussion with very competent people about the market situation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBJ-p0ybhzs
Why so much fear of losing money they dont use stops ?
  • #35,288
  • Edited 9:47am Oct 21, 2017 9:34am | Edited 9:47am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Government manipulation via FED but what can you do besides to stick with trend and just buy pullbacks. After each pullback markets pull back up again to new highs. This is the current trend and has been over the last 8 years in America. Best tobstick with the flow instead of trying to predict market top. With QE money printing 24/7 off the printing presses there is no tip for this market.
Absolutely. At the same time, the markets move in cycles - boom, bust, rinse, repeat - and will continue to do so. By most measures things are out of balance. This will correct itself at some point. When that will happen is, as you say, pointless to try to predict - unless you are using some kind of scientifically verified model for doing so, such as:

https://thebubbleindex.com/

See also https://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0106520.pdf
  • #35,289
  • Edited 10:33am Oct 21, 2017 9:41am | Edited 10:33am
Quoting AlexC
DJ30 Weekly Long term perspective {image}
Hmm, is that the way to draw trendlines and cnannels?

Here's the Dow and R2K.
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  • #35,290
  • Oct 21, 2017 10:06am Oct 21, 2017 10:06am
Quoting medici
{quote} Hmm, is that the way to draw trendlines and cnannels? Here's the Dow and R2K. {image} {image}
Use Andrew's median lines or Andrew's pitchfork lines.
  • #35,291
  • Oct 21, 2017 10:13am Oct 21, 2017 10:13am
Quoting AlexC
{quote} Use Andrew's median lines or Andrew's pitchfork lines.
Where is the evidence supporting them for longer-term charts?

Meanwhile, here you have the exact same method applied to the last three market booms.
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  • #35,292
  • Oct 21, 2017 10:41am Oct 21, 2017 10:41am
For comparison, the all-time-high in EURUSD.
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  • #35,293
  • Oct 21, 2017 11:11am Oct 21, 2017 11:11am
Quoting medici
{quote} Where is the evidence supporting them for longer-term charts? Meanwhile, here you have the exact same method applied to the last three market booms. {image} {image}
The evidence is in how the median lines capture price.
You're using channels in your charts which differ.
  • #35,294
  • Edited 11:33am Oct 21, 2017 11:16am | Edited 11:33am
Quoting AlexC
{quote} The evidence is in how the median lines capture price.
Yes, but there is so much subjectivity in how you draw pitchforks.

Here's a DAX weekly chart and a couple of pitchforks. Of what use are they? Were they drawn incorrectly? Could pitchforks have been used to shed light on price action from the February 2016 low onwards?

Then compare it with the channel.
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  • #35,295
  • Oct 21, 2017 11:38am Oct 21, 2017 11:38am
Quoting medici
{quote} Yes, but there is so much subjectivity in how you draw pitchforks. Here's a DAX weekly chart and a couple of pitchforks. Of what use are they? Were they drawn incorrectly? Could pitchforks have been used to shed light on price action from the February 2016 low onwards? Then compare it with the channel. {image} {image}
How is the DAX chart I posted subjective? It follows price. One must study median lines first to draw them. If you prefer channels, that's your subjective choice.
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  • #35,296
  • Oct 21, 2017 11:53am Oct 21, 2017 11:53am
Quoting AlexC
{quote}

How is the DAX chart I posted subjective?
You connect a low before a boom with a low after a correction. That is questionable in my view. A new regime starts in the market after the correction. I've used your technique on the DOW to illustrate my point. See below.

Could you please briefly answer my question from the previous post, i.e. how does your pitchfork shed light on the development after February 2016? It may be obvious to you, but in light of my DOW example, I'm not sure.

Quote
One must study median lines first to draw them.

If you prefer channels, that's your subjective choice.

Yes, I have studied pitchforks extensively, and I prefer objective channels to subjective pitchforks. But if you could briefly share, or point to, an objectively testable way of using pitchforks, I would appreciate it.
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  • #35,297
  • Oct 21, 2017 12:02pm Oct 21, 2017 12:02pm
Quoting AlexC
{quote} How is the DAX chart I posted subjective? It follows price. One must study median lines first to draw them. If you prefer channels, that's your subjective choice. {image}
And here is, in my view, the correct way to draw a pitchfork for the long term view of the DOW. It differs from yours above. Care to comment?
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  • #35,298
  • Oct 21, 2017 12:20pm Oct 21, 2017 12:20pm
Quoting medici
{quote} You connect a low before a boom with a low after a correction. That is questionable in my view. A new regime starts in the market after the correction.
Perhaps this wider perspective might clarify.
DAX wkly
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  • #35,299
  • Oct 21, 2017 12:27pm Oct 21, 2017 12:27pm
Quoting medici
{quote} Yes, I have studied pitchforks extensively, and I prefer objective channels to subjective pitchforks. But if you could briefly share, or point to, an objectively testable way of using pitchforks, I would appreciate it. {image}
There are variations in projections of median lines.
DowJones Monthly
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  • #35,300
  • Oct 21, 2017 1:27pm Oct 21, 2017 1:27pm
Quoting AlexC
{quote} Perhaps this wider perspective might clarify. DAX wkly {image}
Well, you've removed the pitchfork I referred to I guess that says something.

As to your method of choosing the three points - unless you formulate a method with bakctested results - looks very much like subjective curve-fitting. Differently put, you pick the points to get the result you want instead of picking the points by a method.

How do you avoid confirmation bias?
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